Ukraine Thread

[GenosseGeneral]

One can never know what new ideas they (read Putin) will come up with. Like this one:
http://sirgis.info/2015/02/16/separatist_clothes/

Well, the Russian military gear supplier SSO/SPOSN is advertising with pictures of Strelkov & gang on its vkontakte account. That company gained its reputation by supplying the 'spetsnaz' units of quite number of agencies.

Apart from that: nothing new in the East, unfortunately. Yet this ceasefire was doomed to fail when Zakharchenko unilaterally excluded Debalzevo, because "it is inside the DNR, thus we are free to shoot there." There is still a minimal chance of someone from Moscow bringing the separatists into line, but since both DNR and Ukraine halted the withdrawal of heavy weaponry (the key agreement in the recent agreement as well as the one from September), fighting is likely to escalate again.
I wonder whether we will see another round of sacntions and/or arms deliveries now. Since I will study as an exchange in Moscow from March 1st on, I am somewhat worried about Russia maybe being cut off SWIFT.

[Gilrandir]

I wonder whether we will see another round of sacntions and/or arms deliveries now. Since I will study as an exchange in Moscow from March 1st on, I am somewhat worried about Russia maybe being cut off SWIFT.

I don't think the West would have guts enough to do that since it will mean (as experts say) a complete collapse of Russia's finacial system within a couple of days. The West is afraid that Putin will retaliate in god knows what way. So the policy of soft sanctional pressure will continue possibly coupled with a decision to supply Ukraine with weapons. But if the West opts for the latter I think the prudent thing would be to do it without any announcement urbi et orbi.
I wish you a smooth journey and uneventful stay in Moscow. Try to keep your head in the propaganda flurry you will experience there.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

The Ceasefire is dead, officially: http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...tes-debaltseve

More sanctions have also been issued: http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...s-list-ukraine

We're getting quite close to Putin himself being persona non grata, I don't think that will happen but at this rate he'll be the only official allowed to travel.

I can't see how Obama can resist supplying Ukraine with arms now, even though arms will require American "advisers". This is a nightmare scenario for Obama because he now has two options - be the president who "let the Russians have Ukraine" or be the president who "started the new Vietnam."

[Gilrandir]

The Ceasefire is dead, officially: http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...tes-debaltseve

It was a still born baby the moment it was signed since no party to the agreement liked it. It was supposed to bring a short respite, but evidently that was a vain hope.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

The Ceasefire is dead, officially: http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...tes-debaltseve

More sanctions have also been issued: http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...s-list-ukraine

We're getting quite close to Putin himself being persona non grata, I don't think that will happen but at this rate he'll be the only official allowed to travel.

I can't see how Obama can resist supplying Ukraine with arms now, even though arms will require American "advisers". This is a nightmare scenario for Obama because he now has two options - be the president who "let the Russians have Ukraine" or be the president who "started the new Vietnam."

Weapons will be sent. Advisors will be sent to rear areas with return tickets already booked. Obama will pull any USA personnel rather than let them be there to replicate the ramp up to the Gulf of Tonkin. Mercs and private contractors might be different.

[Kagemusha]

According to news Ukrainian forces are withdrawing from Debaltseve. Now the separatist have a railroad connection between Donetsk and Luhansk. One has to wonder will Mariupol be the next target, or are they satisfied now of what they hold.

Apparently US loosened restrictions of exporting unmanned drones. Maybe US will send some drones to Ukraine next.

[Gilrandir]

According to news Ukrainian forces are withdrawing from Debaltseve. Now the separatist have a railroad connection between Donetsk and Luhansk.

I may be wrong, but from what I've heard railroads in Debaltseve need a most serious repair. If the separatists (read Russia) do that, they may use the said connection.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

According to news Ukrainian forces are withdrawing from Debaltseve. Now the separatist have a railroad connection between Donetsk and Luhansk. One has to wonder will Mariupol be the next target, or are they satisfied now of what they hold.

Apparently US loosened restrictions of exporting unmanned drones. Maybe US will send some drones to Ukraine next.

The town has fallen, thankfully most of the Ukrainian forces were able to withdraw rather than being captured, although some were apparently taken.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-31519000

I liked this quote, "The rapidly deteriorating situation inside Debaltseve and its possible fall to Russian-backed forces - despite a ceasefire brokered specifically to avoid this scenario - raises a number of questions but one in particular: What were Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande thinking?"

What indeed?

So far diplomacy has benefited Russia, they aren't even using the fig leaf of the Separatist leaders any more, Germany and France have been negotiating directly with Russia, not the rebels.

So - lets review - two Minsk deals - neither held up by Russia - no benefit to Ukraine, her neighbours, or the West.

Can we stop pansying about now?

Russia isn't THAT scary in a conventional war and they aren't going to fire off Nukes over Ukraine so at what point are we going to mobilise, when they take Poland?

[Kralizec]

The town has fallen, thankfully most of the Ukrainian forces were able to withdraw rather than being captured, although some were apparently taken.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-31519000

I liked this quote, "The rapidly deteriorating situation inside Debaltseve and its possible fall to Russian-backed forces - despite a ceasefire brokered specifically to avoid this scenario - raises a number of questions but one in particular: What were Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande thinking?"

What indeed?

So far diplomacy has benefited Russia, they aren't even using the fig leaf of the Separatist leaders any more, Germany and France have been negotiating directly with Russia, not the rebels.

So - lets review - two Minsk deals - neither held up by Russia - no benefit to Ukraine, her neighbours, or the West.

Can we stop pansying about now?

Russia isn't THAT scary in a conventional war and they aren't going to fire off Nukes over Ukraine so at what point are we going to mobilise, when they take Poland?

Seriously? You want to send your country's troops to fight in this conflict?

Putin initially tried to bargain for a ceasefire 10 days later than the final agreement finally provided for. The purpose of that was obviously to give the rebels time to capture Debaltseve, which suggests that he wasn't negotiating with the intent of breaking the deal afterwards.

Some people claim that the rebels are Putin's puppets, while Russia claims it has no involvement in the dispute at all. I'm guessing that neither is true; Russia provides the rebels with the means to fight but has limited control over what they do with them.

[Don Corleone]

Russia isn't THAT scary in a conventional war and they aren't going to fire off Nukes over Ukraine so at what point are we going to mobilise, when they take Poland?

Putin has had his media repeatedly stress that while Soviet military doctrine precluded offensive nuclear options, modern Russia reserves the right of nuclear first strike capability for any reason.

They're going to the Baltics next, then Poland. Any further "negotiations" will just embolden him to expand Warsaw ~1986 boundaries. Don't forget, Putin considers Berlin as rightfully his.

As for "what we're going to do about it"... Come on.... Doesn't everyone remember the famous hot-mike incident in 2011 when Obama told him to wait until after he got relelected, then he'd let Putin do whatever he wanted?

This is a good read on the current situation. The Economist, noted for its rather thoughtful, restrained insights on aggressive foreign policy, nails it. Now or later, we're going to war with this guy.