Ukraine Thread

[Papewaio]

Well the American Congress have actually done stupid things like this:

"On March 11, 2003 Republican U.S. Representatives Bob Ney and Walter B. Jones directed the three House cafeterias to change all references to French fries and French toast on menus, and replace them with Freedom fries and Freedom toast, respectively. Jones chose to follow Cubbie's example by circulating a letter to his colleagues advocating their renaming because, he said, "the French were 'sitting on the sidelines.'"[4][7] As Ney was Chairman of the United States House Committee on House Administration, the action did not require any vote, as the committee has authority over House cafeterias. According to a statement released by Ney, the renaming was intended to express displeasure with France's "continued refusal to stand with their U.S. allies". The statement further read: "This action today is a small but symbolic effort to show the strong displeasure many on Capitol Hill have with our so-called ally, France."[8] When asked about his view on the change, Jones said it was a "lighthearted gesture."[9]" - Wikipedia

So the talk show bird story looks credible when compared to the US Congress... not that that is a very high standard...

[Gilrandir]

So the talk show bird story looks credible when compared to the US Congress... not that that is a very high standard...

The story I mentioned was just a sample. Here is one more:
A woman said that she had witnessed it herself. After Ukrainian military entered Slovyansk (left by the separatists in July) they gathered all the poplulation of the town in the central square. Then they took a boy of three dressed only in his underwear and crucified him on the announcement board in the presence of his mother.
The problem is not in the stories, but in the people in Russia most of whom are ready to believe any boogie story about Ukrainian nazi junta. And Russian TV keeps pumping out such coverages. That is why I think that Ukrianians and Russians are unlikely to have the attitude to each other they have had for the last 50-70 years. In the long run it is worse than the current crisis which will end sooner or later.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

I think you're wrong - people keeps going on about Putin being this great strategist and a "chess player" but people forget that MOST politicians play Chess, I'm sure Obama does having been to Harvard, David Cameron certainly would having been to Eton and Oxford, Hollonde probably does too - Merkel might not I suppose.

Hmmm. I may be using the "chess player" analogy a bit differently. I am not saying that Putin has been mistake free. I am saying that he has a mind set where pressure and control of territory -- incremental gains -- are the objectives as opposed to sweeping results. By contrast, the USA has a strong poker player streak in us -- "all in" -- hoping for sweeping results from a policy or approach. THAT is what I mean by consolidation. He knows that going much further in ramping things up is likely to get too costly. He will keep the current situation running as long as it is generating results and the cost isn't ramped up. If that shifts, he will stop -- but not reverse -- these efforts.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Giving the swing of the propaganda and the money he is pumping into it I would say that it shows no sign of abating or even slackening. Sometimes it is so ridiculous that I can hardly believe that people buy it. For example, at a talk show broadcast on Russian TV (in the primetime on Sunday too) a man who claimed to have witnessed it personally said that elementary school teachers in Zaporizhya said to second-graders that they must feed finches during the winter cold since their color is blue and yellow, the colors of the Ukrainian flag, while the kids should not feed and even shoo away bull finches as their color suggest they are Russian birds.
And people at the talk show (and not only there) considered it a credible story!

And if he does, what do you think the West would do? Cut Russia off from Swift?

I am saying that Putin's current efforts will run up against economic hardships or the potential for significant casualties and he will either need to back off and consolidate a bit or take Russia to war. While he is playing off the sentiment of many Russians that they deserve their "place in the sun" and that other Western powers are denying them that opportunity (that has been a "chip on the shoulder' for Russian since Pytor), he knows that Russia lacks the wherewithal for a general war. As long as he can keep profiting from the current arrangement of events, he will do so. When the price escalates, he will become conciliatory -- but doesn't plan to hand anything back.

[Papewaio]

The story I mentioned was just a sample. Here is one more:
A woman said that she had witnessed it herself. After Ukrainian military entered Slovyansk (left by the separatists in July) they gathered all the poplulation of the town in the central square. Then they took a boy of three dressed only in his underwear and crucified him on the announcement board in the presence of his mother.
The problem is not in the stories, but in the people in Russia most of whom are ready to believe any boogie story about Ukrainian nazi junta. And Russian TV keeps pumping out such coverages. That is why I think that Ukrianians and Russians are unlikely to have the attitude to each other they have had for the last 50-70 years. In the long run it is worse than the current crisis which will end sooner or later.

What I'm getting out is propaganda works even blatantly fake propaganda because people have done more malicious and stupid things then what is talked about. Most people who watch TV don't look at multiple sources or even review the source they are getting it from.

Good rule of thumb if Al Jazeera, BBC and Fox News all agree on something then it is probably true. Otherwise take it with a grain of salt.

Given that the majority of Westerners can't do that, it would be much easier to dupe an audience who may not have been brought up with such critical thinking and a culture that questions authority.

[Tuuvi]

Funny clip of Putin at the summit in Minsk:

http://coub.com/view/4z2tx

Seems like Europe is starting to get a little tired of Mr. Putin.

[a completely inoffensive name]

Well the American Congress have actually done stupid things like this:

"On March 11, 2003 Republican U.S. Representatives Bob Ney and Walter B. Jones directed the three House cafeterias to change all references to French fries and French toast on menus, and replace them with Freedom fries and Freedom toast, respectively. Jones chose to follow Cubbie's example by circulating a letter to his colleagues advocating their renaming because, he said, "the French were 'sitting on the sidelines.'"[4][7] As Ney was Chairman of the United States House Committee on House Administration, the action did not require any vote, as the committee has authority over House cafeterias. According to a statement released by Ney, the renaming was intended to express displeasure with France's "continued refusal to stand with their U.S. allies". The statement further read: "This action today is a small but symbolic effort to show the strong displeasure many on Capitol Hill have with our so-called ally, France."[8] When asked about his view on the change, Jones said it was a "lighthearted gesture."[9]" - Wikipedia

So the talk show bird story looks credible when compared to the US Congress... not that that is a very high standard...

What I will take away from this, is that when it comes to breakfast, Americans are willing to say no to bureaucracy.

[Husar]

Funny clip of Putin at the summit in Minsk:

http://coub.com/view/4z2tx

Seems like Europe is starting to get a little tired of Mr. Putin.

That's the reversed clip, and the guy holding the chair is Lukashenko, if Lukashenko represents Europe or people getting tired of Putin, I'll eat a banana*.







*I might eat a banana anyway.

[Gilrandir]

Another funny video from Minsk - a Lifenews journalist communicates to his Ukrainian colleagues:
http://obozrevatel.com/abroad/32094-...-videofakt.htm

[Tuuvi]

That's the reversed clip, and the guy holding the chair is Lukashenko, if Lukashenko represents Europe or people getting tired of Putin, I'll eat a banana*.







*I might eat a banana anyway.

Oh come on Husar don't ruin it for me...

[Husar]

Oh come on Husar don't ruin it for me...

There are already enough false news coming out of Ukraine...

[TotalGamer]

Another funny video from Minsk - a Lifenews journalist communicates to his Ukrainian colleagues

lol :D

[Gilrandir]

Finally, the west caught Putin lying about absence of his weapons in Donbas:
http://yle.fi/uutiset/fiia_researche...kraine/7803774

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Finally, the west caught Putin lying about absence of his weapons in Donbas:
http://yle.fi/uutiset/fiia_researche...kraine/7803774

The Russians will say Ukraine inserted the clause to cause mischief.

In other news...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-31475744

"Donetsk rebel leader Alexander Zakharchenko said earlier on Saturday that he considered the Debaltseve area was not covered by the agreed ceasefire."

Men like this deserve their heads on spikes.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

...Donetsk rebel leader Alexander Zakharchenko said earlier on Saturday that he considered the Debaltseve area was not covered by the agreed ceasefire."

Men like this deserve their heads on spikes.

While I cannot completely disagree with "deserve," I would advocate restraint. Too "old school" for modern sensibilities -- ends up creating sympathy for someone thereof undeserving. Quiet and relatively painless execution followed by private family funeral is a more practicable route. Still ends up with sympathizers screaming "martyrdom!" but probably won't add to their numbers any as a public showing would.

[Gilrandir]

The Russians will say Ukraine inserted the clause to cause mischief.

... and Putin was too sleepy after exhausting night negotiations in Minsk that he failed to detect the trap. Yet it doesn't diminish his greatness:
http://vestnikkavkaza.net/news/politics/66351.html

"Donetsk rebel leader Alexander Zakharchenko said earlier on Saturday that he considered the Debaltseve area was not covered by the agreed ceasefire."

One more proof that it is useless to sign anything with Putin and his puppets. They blame the Ukrainian army in shelling Donetsk to proclaim the Minsk agreements void, but in fact they do it themselves:
http://nv.ua/ukraine/doneck-obstreli...ora-34751.html
Moreover, DNR demanded additional clause(s) to the signed agreement which would stipulate Ukraine's not joining NATO (sorry, links only in Russian). One can never know what new ideas they (read Putin) will come up with. Like this one:
http://sirgis.info/2015/02/16/separatist_clothes/

[GenosseGeneral]

One can never know what new ideas they (read Putin) will come up with. Like this one:
http://sirgis.info/2015/02/16/separatist_clothes/

Well, the Russian military gear supplier SSO/SPOSN is advertising with pictures of Strelkov & gang on its vkontakte account. That company gained its reputation by supplying the 'spetsnaz' units of quite number of agencies.

Apart from that: nothing new in the East, unfortunately. Yet this ceasefire was doomed to fail when Zakharchenko unilaterally excluded Debalzevo, because "it is inside the DNR, thus we are free to shoot there." There is still a minimal chance of someone from Moscow bringing the separatists into line, but since both DNR and Ukraine halted the withdrawal of heavy weaponry (the key agreement in the recent agreement as well as the one from September), fighting is likely to escalate again.
I wonder whether we will see another round of sacntions and/or arms deliveries now. Since I will study as an exchange in Moscow from March 1st on, I am somewhat worried about Russia maybe being cut off SWIFT.

[Gilrandir]

I wonder whether we will see another round of sacntions and/or arms deliveries now. Since I will study as an exchange in Moscow from March 1st on, I am somewhat worried about Russia maybe being cut off SWIFT.

I don't think the West would have guts enough to do that since it will mean (as experts say) a complete collapse of Russia's finacial system within a couple of days. The West is afraid that Putin will retaliate in god knows what way. So the policy of soft sanctional pressure will continue possibly coupled with a decision to supply Ukraine with weapons. But if the West opts for the latter I think the prudent thing would be to do it without any announcement urbi et orbi.
I wish you a smooth journey and uneventful stay in Moscow. Try to keep your head in the propaganda flurry you will experience there.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

The Ceasefire is dead, officially: http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...tes-debaltseve

More sanctions have also been issued: http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...s-list-ukraine

We're getting quite close to Putin himself being persona non grata, I don't think that will happen but at this rate he'll be the only official allowed to travel.

I can't see how Obama can resist supplying Ukraine with arms now, even though arms will require American "advisers". This is a nightmare scenario for Obama because he now has two options - be the president who "let the Russians have Ukraine" or be the president who "started the new Vietnam."

[Gilrandir]

The Ceasefire is dead, officially: http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...tes-debaltseve

It was a still born baby the moment it was signed since no party to the agreement liked it. It was supposed to bring a short respite, but evidently that was a vain hope.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

The Ceasefire is dead, officially: http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...tes-debaltseve

More sanctions have also been issued: http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...s-list-ukraine

We're getting quite close to Putin himself being persona non grata, I don't think that will happen but at this rate he'll be the only official allowed to travel.

I can't see how Obama can resist supplying Ukraine with arms now, even though arms will require American "advisers". This is a nightmare scenario for Obama because he now has two options - be the president who "let the Russians have Ukraine" or be the president who "started the new Vietnam."

Weapons will be sent. Advisors will be sent to rear areas with return tickets already booked. Obama will pull any USA personnel rather than let them be there to replicate the ramp up to the Gulf of Tonkin. Mercs and private contractors might be different.

[Kagemusha]

According to news Ukrainian forces are withdrawing from Debaltseve. Now the separatist have a railroad connection between Donetsk and Luhansk. One has to wonder will Mariupol be the next target, or are they satisfied now of what they hold.

Apparently US loosened restrictions of exporting unmanned drones. Maybe US will send some drones to Ukraine next.

[Gilrandir]

According to news Ukrainian forces are withdrawing from Debaltseve. Now the separatist have a railroad connection between Donetsk and Luhansk.

I may be wrong, but from what I've heard railroads in Debaltseve need a most serious repair. If the separatists (read Russia) do that, they may use the said connection.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

According to news Ukrainian forces are withdrawing from Debaltseve. Now the separatist have a railroad connection between Donetsk and Luhansk. One has to wonder will Mariupol be the next target, or are they satisfied now of what they hold.

Apparently US loosened restrictions of exporting unmanned drones. Maybe US will send some drones to Ukraine next.

The town has fallen, thankfully most of the Ukrainian forces were able to withdraw rather than being captured, although some were apparently taken.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-31519000

I liked this quote, "The rapidly deteriorating situation inside Debaltseve and its possible fall to Russian-backed forces - despite a ceasefire brokered specifically to avoid this scenario - raises a number of questions but one in particular: What were Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande thinking?"

What indeed?

So far diplomacy has benefited Russia, they aren't even using the fig leaf of the Separatist leaders any more, Germany and France have been negotiating directly with Russia, not the rebels.

So - lets review - two Minsk deals - neither held up by Russia - no benefit to Ukraine, her neighbours, or the West.

Can we stop pansying about now?

Russia isn't THAT scary in a conventional war and they aren't going to fire off Nukes over Ukraine so at what point are we going to mobilise, when they take Poland?

[Kralizec]

The town has fallen, thankfully most of the Ukrainian forces were able to withdraw rather than being captured, although some were apparently taken.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-31519000

I liked this quote, "The rapidly deteriorating situation inside Debaltseve and its possible fall to Russian-backed forces - despite a ceasefire brokered specifically to avoid this scenario - raises a number of questions but one in particular: What were Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande thinking?"

What indeed?

So far diplomacy has benefited Russia, they aren't even using the fig leaf of the Separatist leaders any more, Germany and France have been negotiating directly with Russia, not the rebels.

So - lets review - two Minsk deals - neither held up by Russia - no benefit to Ukraine, her neighbours, or the West.

Can we stop pansying about now?

Russia isn't THAT scary in a conventional war and they aren't going to fire off Nukes over Ukraine so at what point are we going to mobilise, when they take Poland?

Seriously? You want to send your country's troops to fight in this conflict?

Putin initially tried to bargain for a ceasefire 10 days later than the final agreement finally provided for. The purpose of that was obviously to give the rebels time to capture Debaltseve, which suggests that he wasn't negotiating with the intent of breaking the deal afterwards.

Some people claim that the rebels are Putin's puppets, while Russia claims it has no involvement in the dispute at all. I'm guessing that neither is true; Russia provides the rebels with the means to fight but has limited control over what they do with them.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Seriously? You want to send your country's troops to fight in this conflict?

No, but that's where we're headed now.

We should have supplied Ukraine with the materials to fight the rebels six months ago, we didn't, things have escalated and now we're looking at Ukraine being turned into a failed state by Russia.

Diplomacy has failed - people will look back on this the way they did American negotiation with Japan before Pearl Harbour.

Putin initially tried to bargain for a ceasefire 10 days later than the final agreement finally provided for. The purpose of that was obviously to give the rebels time to capture Debaltseve, which suggests that he wasn't negotiating with the intent of breaking the deal afterwards.

In other words, he wanted a ceasefire he didn't need to break, which is still negotiating in bad faith.

Some people claim that the rebels are Putin's puppets, while Russia claims it has no involvement in the dispute at all. I'm guessing that neither is true; Russia provides the rebels with the means to fight but has limited control over what they do with them.

Whether or not Russia controls the idiots with guns, any resulting "state" that comes out of this will be a vassal of Russia.

[Kadagar_AV]

Seriously? You want to send your country's troops to fight in this conflict?

Putin initially tried to bargain for a ceasefire 10 days later than the final agreement finally provided for. The purpose of that was obviously to give the rebels time to capture Debaltseve, which suggests that he wasn't negotiating with the intent of breaking the deal afterwards.

Some people claim that the rebels are Putin's puppets, while Russia claims it has no involvement in the dispute at all. I'm guessing that neither is true; Russia provides the rebels with the means to fight but has limited control over what they do with them.

That would not be a natural conclusion in the grand scheme of things.

He might have had every intention to break it anyway, but have set that date so that if he couldnt break it, because the international situation changed, at least he would get that city as well.

I dont have an agenda here, heck, I don't even know what side I am rooting for. Just wanted to point out that that part of the post seemed wrong from a logical standpoint.

[Gilrandir]

Putin initially tried to bargain for a ceasefire 10 days later than the final agreement finally provided for. The purpose of that was obviously to give the rebels time to capture Debaltseve, which suggests that he wasn't negotiating with the intent of breaking the deal afterwards.

In fact, he expected the town to have been captured by the time the negotiations started to have a stronger bargaining position. But, if I understand his intent, his aim wasn't and isn't Debaltseve per se. His main hope is to break Ukraine from within: by crawling offensive and constant loss of territories to cause dissatisfaction with the country's management and question their competence. This (together with deteriorating economic situation - one of the reasons it is so in:https://twitter.com/ok1ua/status/568155020379725824) is to bring down the current regime in Kyiv and install a more lenient one or (if he is lucky) to break the country apart.

Russia provides the rebels with the means to fight but has limited control over what they do with them.

The control is complete: Putin can stop supplying the rebels with weapons, ammo, fuel, food and close the border against any reinforcements coming from Russia. How long can Lugandoneans hold out provided these conditions are met? Instead he keeps doing the opposite babbling about victorious miners and tractor drivers plus directly involving his army:
https://globalvoicesonline.org/2015/...-verification/

[Gilrandir]

The Russian newspaper Kommersant reveals how the impression that in Donbas local miners and tractor drivers fight is created:
http://ukrainiancrisis.net/news/8400

[Gilrandir]

http://panteres.com/2015/02/20/ukrai...-putins-myths/