Ukraine Thread

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

This is a question to which the answer has totally eluded me, but could you explain why you would want to?

Want to fight Putin? I want to fight Putin about a much as my grandfather wanted to fight Hitler - but it's starting to look as though it might be as necessary.

Putin has had his media repeatedly stress that while Soviet military doctrine precluded offensive nuclear options, modern Russia reserves the right of nuclear first strike capability for any reason.

He's still not going to attack with Nukes, there's no point unless we invade Russia itself and that's not necessary, or profitable.

They're going to the Baltics next, then Poland. Any further "negotiations" will just embolden him to expand Warsaw ~1986 boundaries. Don't forget, Putin considers Berlin as rightfully his.

Moldova is a more likely target, followed by Hungary, cutting Romania and Bulgaria off from the rest of NATO - Poland, Romania and Bulgaria are more hostile to Russia than Hungary or Austria, or indeed even Greece.

As for "what we're going to do about it"... Come on.... Doesn't everyone remember the famous hot-mike incident in 2011 when Obama told him to wait until after he got relelected, then he'd let Putin do whatever he wanted?

Experience says that America will never do the right thing for Europe unless pushed or outraged, although Americans have affection for Europe it is a distant and vague affection, you will never inconvenience yourselves to help us, which is why your wisest politicians created NATO, to force you to do the right thing. Unfortunately the end of the cold war has resulted in an American AND European drawdown beyond the point of safety and now we will reap the whirlwind.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

...Experience says that America will never do the right thing for Europe unless pushed or outraged, although Americans have affection for Europe it is a distant and vague affection, you will never inconvenience yourselves to help us, which is why your wisest politicians created NATO, to force you to do the right thing. Unfortunately the end of the cold war has resulted in an American AND European drawdown beyond the point of safety and now we will reap the whirlwind.

We do tend to do the right thing pretty lethargically when in comes to Europe. And you are quite fair in your apportionment of blame regarding NATO's military preparedness.

I hope you are wrong about the need to go to war with Putin. That would be a lot of blood spilled. He does seem to harken back to the days of Empire and expansionism though....so you may have a point.

[Gilrandir]

Moldova is a more likely target, followed by Hungary, cutting Romania and Bulgaria off from the rest of NATO - Poland, Romania and Bulgaria are more hostile to Russia than Hungary or Austria, or indeed even Greece.

To get at Moldova he has to conquer all the way through the south of Ukraine and be able to control the strip. Hungary has a most friendly to Putin regime. Moreover, no hybrid war tactics will be possible to preliminary weaken the adversary since no large quantities of Russian speakers/Russians reside there (exept Transdniestria). So I believe the Baltics (namely Latvia) will have to bear the brunt of assault if it comes to war.
http://www.baltictimes.com/latvian_s...rnet_pictures/
But again, it will take money (which Russia definitely is short of at the moment) and time (which gives Latvia a respite of couple of years) to get things prepared properly.
Or, alternatively, Putin may consider Kazakhstan as an option. The north of the country is entirely populated by Russian speakers (among whom a great proportion is taken by ethnic Ukrainians, btw) who seem to be an easy target to sway Russiawards.
And Belarus, having such soldiers, seems perfectly safe from any attack from the East:

[Fisherking]

Putin is merely an opportunist taking advantage of very stupid US efforts to weaken Russia.

The West lacks any leadership half as cunning as Putin nor wise enough to know it.

Putin can afford to act like a bandit. He is fully aware that the US military is not the threat it once was.

It has a military focused on the use of small scale special forces operations and air power focused on air to air combat. Their multi mission aircraft do none of their missions well and there are too few troops to take on the tasks or trained to handle a combined arms campaign.

Russia has be isolated by the US each time they have tried to cooperate with them.

The rest of the west keep following Washington’s ridiculous short sighed policies and diplomatic leads which brought it to this stage.

His latest move shows that he has lost any hope of bringing the EU to a more neutral stance, so from here on it is put up or shut up.

As weak as Europe is and as unreliable an ally as the US has turned out to be he is fairly confident in being able to push things even further. All I can see from the West is more bluster and no substance.

[Gilrandir]

Putin can afford to act like a bandit. He is fully aware that the US military is not the threat it once was.

Luckily, both EU and the USA have other levers (mainly economic and finacial) to reach their goal. Unluckily, they don't use them or are afraid/reluctant to use them (I mean those they are using aren't efficient enough).

[Gilrandir]

Russian propaganda in action:
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/22/ma...ruth.html?_r=1

[CrossLOPER]

Russian propaganda in action:
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/22/ma...ruth.html?_r=1

I never understood why people bash Russian TV so much. I don't know of a single place where TV does not suck, most especially in the US. As for propaganda, that article is propaganda itself.

You knew this.

[Gilrandir]

I never understood why people bash Russian TV so much. I don't know of a single place where TV does not suck, most especially in the US. As for propaganda, that article is propaganda itself.

You knew this.

The reason I posted this is because people here tend to underestimate the power of Russian propaganda. My aunt who lives in Krasnodar calls my father now and again and he is astounded and even apalled after such communications. He can't believe that she trusts what she hears and sees on TV more than the words of her brother.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

I never understood why people bash Russian TV so much. I don't know of a single place where TV does not suck, most especially in the US. As for propaganda, that article is propaganda itself.

You knew this.

True, but Russian TV "news" is laughable - especially given that any dissenting stations are simply closed.

America is apparently sending a training Battalion to Ukraine, which is a significant symbolic commitment whilst the UK is sending 75 troops in four training teams.

The news is from the BBC, but I can't find the article now.

[CrossLOPER]

Want to fight Putin? I want to fight Putin about a much as my grandfather wanted to fight Hitler - but it's starting to look as though it might be as necessary.

I'm not entirely sure whether that means you want to or not, but I have a suggestion. There is a large group of morally questionable psychotic death cultists in the middle east and Levant right now, who may or may not have views opposite your own. I would say that they are clearly more deserving of your ire, but I am sure you are more than capable of coming up with reasons why Putin is more the antichrist or whatever.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

I'm not entirely sure whether that means you want to or not, but I have a suggestion. There is a large group of morally questionable psychotic death cultists in the middle east and Levant right now, who may or may not have views opposite your own. I would say that they are clearly more deserving of your ire, but I am sure you are more than capable of coming up with reasons why Putin is more the antichrist or whatever.

Well, my Grandfather was an electrician, and (surprise, surprise) he didn't want to fight Hitler.