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  1. #1
    Iron Fist Senior Member Husar's Avatar
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    Default Re: Ukraine conflict episode 2 Putin´s Empire strikes back

    Quote Originally Posted by Gilrandir View Post
    I have answered this one, yet I can do it again: some countries (Turkey, Israel) are perfectly well having free trade agreements both with the EU and Russia. Even Yanukovych in summer of 2013 said that he would like to see the same future for Ukraine. Russia thought (and still thinks) that it should be a matter of choice - either the former or the latter.
    Anyway, the way Putin enforces friendship is unlikely to get him friends.
    He wasn't making a lot of friends before that either, but since when were Turkey and Israel historically friends of Russia? Their free trade agreements have nothing to do with the situation in Ukraine.

    Quote Originally Posted by Gilrandir View Post
    You evidently have no experience of living in the USSR and modern Russia which increasingly reminds the former. Ask GenosseGeneral, for example, what a modern Russian is likely to say when he is asked by an unknown person on the telephone about his attitude to Putin. Of course, there are some (or very many) that genuinely support him (see the video on celebration Putin's birthday in Grozny), but I would say that a considerable portion would just freak out and say that they worshipped their leader. So the 85-88% figure that Russian media boast of is in fact bloated out of proportion. The real figure (though great in fact, I'm sure) is far less.
    Of course not, I was born in the Free World™.
    But that seems to be a general problem with polling outside the free world, nothing very special about using a telephone to do so, so I was surprised that you highlighted the world telephone. Or would people answer differently if a random guy asked them on the street?


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    Member Member Gilrandir's Avatar
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    Default Re: Ukraine conflict episode 2 Putin´s Empire strikes back

    Quote Originally Posted by Brenus View Post
    The other unexpected effect of your ill-informed statement is it looks you think to work with or for NATO is something to be ashamed of…
    For one so critical of NATO as you it would be not a shame, but hypocrisy. Morally, one can't get paid by someone and then go about saying how you hate what in fact is being done with your participation.
    Quote Originally Posted by Brenus View Post
    What is then the purpose to talk and negotiate with Putin?” The same than for Russia to talk to NATO/EU/US liars: To try to find a solution. From Russian’s point of view, all promises made after the USSR collapse were broken, so perhaps it is time to re-built some bridges.
    All the promises you mention (afaik) never took the shape of a treaty, while Russia's promises (concerning Ukraine) did at least twice (Budapest memorandum of 1994 and Russia-Ukraine treaty of friendship and cooperstion of 1997). Bridges you may build, but Russia will have a terrorist with an explosive ticking under each of them.
    Quote Originally Posted by Brenus View Post
    I speak of wars IN THE NEAR VICINITY.” Ooh, you change your stance again. Nothing wrong with that, mind you, to recognise your mistakes. So Afghanistan is not in Russian’s vicinity? And which war in near vicinity Russia did start, invade? I am writing “start”.
    I don't change it - just a misunderstanding on your part. I speak of Russia waging wars in its vicinity against NATO waging wars in its vicinity. Clearly Russia wins - wars in Transdniestria, Abkhasia, South Ossetia, Chechnya (inside Russia) and now Ukraine. The nearest vicinity of NATO with the latter's involvement saw only Yugoslavian war(s). Since there were several of them on a limited territory (or several stages of the same war) it is safe to assume that it is the locale itself that was in trouble. Russia, on the contrary, was (and is) directly involved in conflicts in different republics of the former USSR. It is a pattern of Russia's behavior rather than natural troubles.
    Quote Originally Posted by Brenus View Post
    Russia has NEVER been attacked by any of NATO members” Which NATO member has been attacked by Russia?
    No. SO the answer to your question will bring you directly to answering this one: should Ukraine become a NATO member?
    Quote Originally Posted by Brenus View Post
    And Russia think so too” Oops, again your weak point, understanding wording: De-escalation (lowering down tensions) in not withdrawing from a association or organism.
    You might have mixed-up because withdrawing military equipment is part of de-escalate a conflict.
    So lifting limitations on the number of weapons is not against de-escalation?

    Quote Originally Posted by Husar View Post
    He wasn't making a lot of friends before that either, but since when were Turkey and Israel historically friends of Russia? Their free trade agreements have nothing to do with the situation in Ukraine.
    When Yanukovych started his EU campagn he claimed (and I agree with him) that being a member of an economic organisation can not cancel any friendly, historic, economic, political and other ties with other countries (Russia in particular). And free trade agreement with both the EU and Russia could be a good example of such approach. Unfortunately, Russia didn't (and doesn't) see it that way. For Putin it is: either be our friend or be within the EU.
    Quote Originally Posted by Husar View Post
    Of course not, I was born in the Free World™.
    But that seems to be a general problem with polling outside the free world, nothing very special about using a telephone to do so, so I was surprised that you highlighted the world telephone. Or would people answer differently if a random guy asked them on the street?
    People in the former USSR (and more so in modern Russia) are pretty much sure that their telephone talks are being eavesdropped on. There is even expression in Russian which is still in use and which can be roughly translated as "it is not a kind of talk one should have over the telephone". Since the researchers telephoned their homes people assumed that they knew their home phone number and consequently their address and consequently their name. So at the back of their mind would always be a picture of a guy with earphones taping every word they said and knowing all private information about them. Questioning people in the street in the broad daylight by an unknown person would give the survey at least a semblance of anonymity.
    Last edited by Gilrandir; 03-15-2015 at 15:32.
    Quote Originally Posted by Suraknar View Post
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  3. #3
    Senior Member Senior Member Brenus's Avatar
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    Default Re: Ukraine conflict episode 2 Putin´s Empire strikes back

    For one so critical of NATO as you it would be not a shame, but hypocrisy. Morally, one can't get paid by someone and then go about saying how you hate what in fact is being done with your participation.” Oh, so you think that because one is paid by an organisation, one can’t be critical of the same organisation… So, if you work for Health Services and you see something wrong, you can’t report it? You have strange points of view on how things work. Someone working for CIA has to agree with torture?
    But, as you acknowledge, and contrary of what you wrote in order to disqualify what I am saying, that is not my case, so not really in debate, at least for me…

    All the promises you mention (afaik) never took the shape of a treaty, while Russia's promises (concerning Ukraine) did at least twice (Budapest memorandum of 1994 and Russia-Ukraine treaty of friendship and cooperstion of 1997). Bridges you may build, but Russia will have a terrorist with an explosive ticking under each of them.” Yeah, but the same can be said for the Internationally Recognised Borders that NATO didn’t hesitate to cross illegally (then changed) when needed… So Russia might have a terrorist under the bridges, NATO might have a drone/airplane above the bridges equipped with armed bombs.

    Clearly Russia wins - wars in Transdniestria, Abkhasia, South Ossetia, Chechnya (inside Russia) and now Ukraine” None of these wars (low level conflicts) was initiated by Russia. However, Iraq, Afghanistan, Croatia, Bosnia, Kosovo, Libya were initiated by NATO. I might as well put Ukraine in the bag, as it was the Coup d’Etat initiated by if not NATO (but as you do not hesitate to add internal conflicts in Russian backyard, why shouldn’t I?), by it diplomacy and secret services. So NATO wins the contest without appeal. Just with Iraq, NATO aggression succeeded to destabilise the entire Middle-East, not bad for an organisation supposed to act defensively.

    No. SO the answer to your question will bring you directly to answering this one: should Ukraine become a NATO member?” Up to Ukraine and NATO to decide. However, due to the success record of the latest NATO interventions, if I would be Ukraine, I would think twice, after seeing what happened in Libya, Kosovo or Iraq… Do note that these countries didn’t crumble under Putin’s evil hand but all by themselves…

    So lifting limitations on the number of weapons is not against de-escalation?” No, not as such, especially when you read the article. I find the reason quite compelling. Treaty was signed when promises not to extend NATO was made, so including new Countries in NATO de facto increased NATO capacities, so Russia sees no reason to keep her part of the deal when clearly NATO is not.
    Or perhaps you will tell now that NATO didn’t include new members?
    Last edited by Brenus; 03-15-2015 at 16:07.
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  4. #4
    Member Member GenosseGeneral's Avatar
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    Default Re: Ukraine conflict episode 2 Putin´s Empire strikes back

    Regarding the "polling debate":
    Telephone calls are indeed the most common way of conducting polls, although they have a lot of biases and shortcomings, e.g. non-coverage of people not owning a telephone or who are not home when the pollster calls. However, all types of polls have biases and telephone interviews are comparably cheap, accurate and quick (more on the topic: you can certainly find something comparable in your language
    Yet I can indeed see a number of reasons why I indeed expect them to work less well in a post-soviet environment:
    a) More uneven spread of telephone numbers: whereas most German households have one fixed-line number, most people here have a varying number of mobile numbers. That makes drawing a randomized sample much more difficult.
    b) Lower responsiveness: As Gilrandir already said, for cultural reasons people can be less open than in the West, especially those who grew up in the USSR. Although I have so far never met a person who declined talking about politics in person, but then again, I also have never called random people and asked them about their personal opinion. It is indeed notable, that the chunk of people "finding it hard to answer the question" is significantly larger in polls from Russia/Ukraine than in those from the West.


    If you are interested in polls from the region, check the Levada Tsentr: http://www.levada.ru/eng/ Widely regarded as the most independent pollster in Russia and they also publish a good deal of their work in English. As a a social scientist, I like their releases actually more than what is published in the average Western mass media, as the data is presented in far more different categories, for example the population size of the respondent's place of residence. It is quite interesting to see how huge differences between Moscow/Petersburg and small towns are. Putin, for instance, is actually MORE popular with the urban than with the village population.
    EDIT: More on their methodology: http://www.levada.ru/eng/omnibus-survey
    It gives you an idea of how difficult the conduction of an accurate survey is.

    Quote Originally Posted by Brenus View Post
    What should be done with this situation? What is a good end result here?”
    I don’t know.
    What do we have? A potential war in a country which has a nuclear plant named Chernobyl and I think 3 more (Zaporijia, Rovno and Khmelnitski ) for a total of 15 reactors like it that needs fuel and spare parts for maintenance from…Moscow.
    I will not answer the “should” part, what is done is done, and Ukraine will have to deal to the situation as Serbia has to deal with the loss of Kosovo. There is no justice, only me, said Death in one of Prachett’s book.
    Arming Ukraine is a bad idea, as Russia will be able to match every piece of equipment. If necessary, Russia will provide grounds troops, as Russia sees Ukraine as vital for her security. USA and EU will not be able to mobilise on the same feeling, so no troops will be sent.
    After the disastrous dealing of the situation by EU/US and Ukrainian Putchist then Legitimate Government of Ukraine of the crisis, it, perhaps, was still place of compromise and to keep Ukrainian territory intact. I still don’t understand how the CIA analysts (but not only) got it so wrong, and underestimated (if not misestimate) Russian feelings and intentions.
    Long time ago, I went in Russia (during Chechnya first war) to deliver medical equipment to Doctors without Borders working in the region. All conversations with the translators, and contact with the locals were about the humiliation of Russia by the West under the Drunken Bear Boris Eltsin. I was told that there were so many Russian prostitutes in Istanbul that all of them were called Natacha. True or not, it was what I was told.
    They were almost all thirsty for dignity and respect.
    Putin success is due for a large part to the return of Russia to a level of self-dignity.
    If this is not understood and rectify, all efforts will be in vain.
    Thanks to Gilrandir, I started to watch RT recently, and not every day, to be frank. I don’t know if what is said in English is what is said in Russian, but they show the comments made by Westerner Politicians, comparing RT and IS.
    So, in term of what can be done, only de-escalation is an option. Ukraine has now no other solution than federalisation, negotiation and talk. Confidence Building Programmes, financed by the European Agency for Reconstruction, rebuilding an economy, a real democracy, creation of jobs, repair of infrastructures: One of the greatest French Colonial General said one to the Foreign Legion after the conquest (I think Morocco) to build one market, one school and to provide medical assistance in each conquered village: Same principal, different wording, bringing populations together, stopping the aggressive stance and coming back to civil life. As Gilrandir often said, they were all neighbours (even if it doesn’t always make it easier).
    George Clemenceau, the man who won the 1st World War, said one: Better a bad peace than a good war. It is not always true, but I think in this case it is.
    I have to admit, that I rarely agree with your posts in this topic, but this one is definitely an exception to the rule. Especially the bit about Russians longing for respect. One thing I have noticed in my first 2 weeks here, is that people have a certain obsession with the US as a rival. The USSR used to be on par with the US and Russians see the Yeltsin era as not more than an exception from the
    rule. The Russian version of 'Murica is bringing freedom, F*CK YEAH
    Expect more of that over the next days, as Crimea returning day seems to have become a national holiday. Oh and have the Putin quotes from the "documentary" made by Pervyy Kanal already made it into the Western press? THERE WERE GRU SPETSNAZ IN CRIMEA! *Badum tsss*

    I also agree with the part about the complete failure of US/EU officials. I don't know what frightens me more: the idea of them being so ruthless, that they didn't care or so clueless, that they didn't know better.
    Last edited by GenosseGeneral; 03-15-2015 at 22:46.

  5. #5
    Mr Self Important Senior Member Beskar's Avatar
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    Default Re: Ukraine conflict episode 2 Putin´s Empire strikes back

    Good propaganda piece, I could see it being well received domestically and those who are sympathetic.
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    Member Member Gilrandir's Avatar
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    Default Re: Ukraine conflict episode 2 Putin´s Empire strikes back

    Quote Originally Posted by GenosseGeneral View Post
    Although I have so far never met a person who declined talking about politics in person, but then again, I also have never called random people and asked them about their personal opinion.
    I wonder how many of those you talked to were critical about current Russian government? I have a suspicion that those ready to talk were Putin supporters.
    Quote Originally Posted by Suraknar View Post
    The article exists for a reason yes, I did not write it...

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    Member Member Gilrandir's Avatar
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    Default Re: Ukraine conflict episode 2 Putin´s Empire strikes back

    This is what I call de-escalation.
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...-russia-drills
    Quote Originally Posted by Suraknar View Post
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    Voluntary Suspension Voluntary Suspension Philippus Flavius Homovallumus's Avatar
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    Default Re: Ukraine conflict episode 2 Putin´s Empire strikes back

    Quote Originally Posted by Gilrandir View Post
    What "new" threat?

    The Mole people?
    "If it wears trousers generally I don't pay attention."

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    Iron Fist Senior Member Husar's Avatar
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    Shadow Senior Member Kagemusha's Avatar
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    Default Re: Ukraine conflict episode 2 Putin´s Empire strikes back

    Quote Originally Posted by Gilrandir View Post
    Maybe in response to this? http://www.defense.gov/home/features...lanticresolve/

    Just asking..
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  11. #11
    Member Member Gilrandir's Avatar
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    Default Re: Ukraine conflict episode 2 Putin´s Empire strikes back

    Quote Originally Posted by Brenus View Post
    For one so critical of NATO as you it would be not a shame, but hypocrisy. Morally, one can't get paid by someone and then go about saying how you hate what in fact is being done with your participation.” Oh, so you think that because one is paid by an organisation, one can’t be critical of the same organisation… So, if you work for Health Services and you see something wrong, you can’t report it? You have strange points of view on how things work. Someone working for CIA has to agree with torture?
    It is not about criticizing, it is about conceptual disagreements with the employer. For example, one can't be a whaler and the member of Green Peace simultaneously, one can't work for a cosmetics company which is known to be testing its produce on animals and hold auctions to help suffering animals. Well, of course one can, but one's moral integrity is, to put it mildly, questionable. The same with NATO: one can't take the money from the organization and say how one hates it for being so dirty and aggressive in its ways, means, policies and devices. In fact, he would be denouncing himself as he gives a hand in devising all those.
    Quote Originally Posted by Brenus View Post
    All the promises you mention (afaik) never took the shape of a treaty, while Russia's promises (concerning Ukraine) did at least twice (Budapest memorandum of 1994 and Russia-Ukraine treaty of friendship and cooperstion of 1997). Bridges you may build, but Russia will have a terrorist with an explosive ticking under each of them.” Yeah, but the same can be said for the Internationally Recognised Borders that NATO didn’t hesitate to cross illegally (then changed) when needed… So Russia might have a terrorist under the bridges, NATO might have a drone/airplane above the bridges equipped with armed bombs.
    The guy under the bridge will always be one move ahead while airplanes are circling about and their pilots are "apalled, shocked and gravely concerned".
    Quote Originally Posted by Brenus View Post
    Clearly Russia wins - wars in Transdniestria, Abkhasia, South Ossetia, Chechnya (inside Russia) and now Ukraine” None of these wars (low level conflicts) was initiated by Russia. However, Iraq, Afghanistan, Croatia, Bosnia, Kosovo, Libya were initiated by NATO. I might as well put Ukraine in the bag, as it was the Coup d’Etat initiated by if not NATO (but as you do not hesitate to add internal conflicts in Russian backyard, why shouldn’t I?), by it diplomacy and secret services.
    I'm as much sure that all the wars I mentioned were initiated by Russia. And I may as well claim that all the conflicts you mentioned stemmed from inside those countries and NATO may have had its say in them afterwards. So we must agree to disagree on it.
    Quote Originally Posted by Brenus View Post
    No. SO the answer to your question will bring you directly to answering this one: should Ukraine become a NATO member?” Up to Ukraine and NATO to decide. However, due to the success record of the latest NATO interventions, if I would be Ukraine, I would think twice, after seeing what happened in Libya, Kosovo or Iraq…
    Those countries were not NATO members. So, if we admit that NAtO doesn't attack its members and that Russia doesn't attack NATO members, would Ukraine be safer within NATO - both from NATO and Russia?
    Quote Originally Posted by Brenus View Post
    So lifting limitations on the number of weapons is not against de-escalation?” No, not as such, especially when you read the article. I find the reason quite compelling. Treaty was signed when promises not to extend NATO was made, so including new Countries in NATO de facto increased NATO capacities, so Russia sees no reason to keep her part of the deal when clearly NATO is not.
    Or perhaps you will tell now that NATO didn’t include new members?
    It is again promises against the signed treaty. Evidently, for Russia these two are equal. It never honors either.
    Last edited by Gilrandir; 03-16-2015 at 16:23.
    Quote Originally Posted by Suraknar View Post
    The article exists for a reason yes, I did not write it...

  12. #12
    Member Member Gilrandir's Avatar
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    Default Re: Ukraine conflict episode 2 Putin´s Empire strikes back

    Isn't that romantic?
    Click image for larger version. 

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    Quote Originally Posted by Suraknar View Post
    The article exists for a reason yes, I did not write it...

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