What Gilandir was talking about:

"We in Russia always thought that Russians and Ukrainians are one people. And I believe so today," Putin told a rally on Red Square marking the first anniversary of Crimea's "unification" with Russia.

People asked why the CIA et al failed to foresee this and I think the answer is actually as simple as it is sad - we have ceased to see war as a tool of statecraft. In the West when we go to war now it is essentially prompted by a humanitarian argument - Afghanistan and Iraq are the exceptions as they are essentially American Wars of Vengeance, but otherwise war has become something of a humanitarian exercise in Europe. Recall that in 1982 the British were unprepared for Argentina to invade the Falklands, they believed the Argentinians would continue to negotiate until both sides were satisfied or the questions became moot.

I think the same was believed in Europe - the politicians believed Putin would continue to negotiate and not deploy Spetnatz in Crimea, and then they didn't think he would escalate.

It's worth pointing out, by the way, that this assumption was at the political level, so it may be moot as to whether or not analysts in the basement saw this coming or not.