Ukraine Thread

[Husar]

I have already expressed my take on the issue elsewhere but I can give a rundown of what I said (again facing the prospect of conspiracy-obsession charges):
According to Illarionov (Putin's ex-aide), after the debacle ot 2004 Putin has had a contingency plan prepared (known as "Clockwork orange") in case the situation in Ukraine went out of his control once again. I believe Putin has been watching the crisis evolvement and by the middle of February (2014) realized that Yanukovych was unlikely to keep his power. Then he kicked it off in the Crimea where the ground to accept whatever he does was the readiest (for various reasons). Inspired by the success he proceeded with the whole of south east, but only Donbas (to be precise the industrial regions of it) proved susceptible to his overtures.
So the answer to your question depends on what you mean by "long before".

So if Yanukovich had stayed and given the people some of what they wanted, everyone had gone home on the 22nd, Putin would still have annexed Crimea?
And that he only went to the regions susceptible to him proves that he wants all of Europe I assume on a sidenote.

I don't know what vote you mean, but Russian offensive (its preparatory stages) started around February 20-21 when Yanukovych (although already powerless and/or hunted) was officially the president, so whatever was done by the Ukrainian government after that couldn't have basically changed Putin's intentions.

So Crimea was already occupied on the 22nd and everyone in Kiev was aware of that?