Ukraine Thread

[Gilrandir]

I know it affects you directly so please don't seek any harm in what I say, but I think Putin IS acting rationally. The expansion of the EU is something he simply can't sell back home. He would look weak, he would be au revoired by more redical undercurrents. We need to put the EU on a leash and stop putting sanctions on Russia that are counterproductive, just because the way things are just happen to be what they are. Do we really want this, I don't. Why want it.

I don't see any harm in what you say, moreover, from the Old Europe trade(profit)-above-all viewpoint you are right. But East European nations don't see it that way. Having experienced what Soviet/Russian occupation means they now know better than to go by simple economics. Knowing that Russia is prone to ovelook its agreements and disregard trade in favor of geopolitics they are genuinely worried about their security. So Europe (the whole of it) is to find a balance between trade profits and security issues.

“As his "Russian spring 2014" failed attempts showed,” What are you speaking about?

About pro-Russian meetings in Kharkiv (with the capturing of regional administration), Odesa (with several dozens dead in a fire) and in other south-eastern cities. They were fomented and financed by Russia - on a video of the Kharkiv events last spring by the side of speaker one can see the notorious now separatists - field commander Motorola (if you don't know him by sight - he is a short black-hooded guy looking over the speaker's shoulder):
http://news.bigmir.net/ukraine/87421...zhili-Motorolu
And see Strlekov's and Putin's confessions.
Unfortunately for Putin, his scenario was successful only in the Crimea and Eastern Donbas - because regular Russian armed forces and/or spetznaz were involved.

Ukraine is now effectively divided in a Bosnian scenario

Your comparison is flawed. Bosnia now consists of virtually autonomous parts and a number of enclaves and has a complex state system. Neither of the metioned parts are directly ruled from the outside. Ukraine has a small (in comparison with the total area) part which is now controlled by Russia and no changes to any laws or the constitution were introduced to give this rump any legality or influence on the policy of the whole country.

as I analysed it few months ago when some of us were speaking of Russian Tanks rolling to Warsaw and NATO tanks engaging the Russian ones…

In one of your prophetic insights you said that Ukraine will be split according to cultural divides. So cultural divide is in the middle of Shyrokine village? Or between Artemovsk and Debaltseve? Cultural differences were (and are) not enough to split it. It takes a fraternal neigbor to tear away some of its parts.

“By having acted not so hastily, he could have had more than what you think he gained” At what point?

At the point when Yanukovych legged it. By keeping back his emotions, presenting himself as a peacemaker and envisioning the economic hardships Ukraine was likely to face, he would have had Ukraine at its disposal as late as 2015. His stooges in Ukraine would have kept on saying that the economic ties with Russia can't be broken, at least not in crisis times, and people, especially those in the South-east, would heartily agree.
Now Ukraine has no choice, most ties are broken by Russia itself and it is largely (including in the South-east) viewed as the aggressor.

In helping the rebels, just enough, he successfully put back the borders (frontlines) where they are now.

Do you know how far he has pushed back the borders? 100-120 km. And only in one direction - the southern one. If you are acquainted with the range of modern weapons, that's nothing. At least not what he will be satisfied with, that's why the war there is likely to resume.
Moreover, in other directions, the border is where it was. Plus a lot more troops (and now, unlike a year ago they can be really called an army) are deployed on the Ukrainian side of it now - that's one more reason for Putin to rejoice at his present safety. Plus Nato troops in greater quantities are moving ever closer to his borders - a third reason for merry-making. Plus new alliances brewing:
http://www.aftenposten.no/nyheter/ur...n-7975109.html
Again three cheers for Putin the Strategist.

So, I don’t know where Putin strategy failed,

His strategy was to prevent Ukraine from heading for Nato and the EU, to have a friendly government in Kyiv and if these two are not possible to split it. Now tell me where he has succeded?

but from here, I think he got quite a good position.

Why is then he behaves like he doesn't? Perhaps it is only you who considers his outlooks bright.

Without action, he would have been entangled in negotiation and lost Crimea.He kept Crimea, and Russia will keep Crimea, as no Russian government will be able to give-it up.
“and he finds the Crimea more and more financially burdensome”; Well, if Russia would have allowed NATO (oops, sorry, Ukrainian Western oriented Government) to control the under see pipelines, the cost for Russia would have been much more expensive, as the loss of the Crimean ports for their fleet.

It would be good if you read something on how much Russia has to spend on the Crimea and how problematic logistics is. To provide regular communication with it Russia has to make Ukraine more amenable or to build a bridge over the Kerch channel - the former is a wishful thinking at the moment, the latter will take time and money which is Russia definitely short of.

“The position is still unified since the sanctions are still there” For how long? As soon they will be lifted, and they will, Russia (Putin) wins. As long they are enforces, EU loses. And then, all work and effort will turn in order to gain Russia market again.

Until then, Russia is losing. Let's see whose margin of safety is greater.

“So you believe that the countries you enumerated should be released from the abominable EU slavery and let go about by themselves? The moment they quit they will have jobs aplenty and economies booming? What makes you so sure it will save them from the collapse they are (as you believe) experiencing?” Who speak of beliefs? Look at the rate of unemployment in these countries. Even in UK, if you had the figures of "Zero Hours Contract", and contrary of the Tories Propaganda, the economical situation is at least fragile, with a debt increasing steadily.
There are few things I am sure: Where are the jobs now? Where is the prosperity now? Where is the protection for the poor now? Where is the voice of the populations now? Why pensions are going down now? So EU didn’t delivered what it was built for, because EU is actually under the dictatorship of an ideology where human beings are not the priority but the so-call laws of free market, which of course are not law but political implementation of absurd ideas.

Evasive as usual. Can you give a direct answer: Would the countries in crisis benefit if they leave the EU?

“Are there any? I mean except instructors” “Yet what is left of Ukraine is relentlessly (for Putin) moving NATOwards.” You gave the answer to your question.

Again evasive. And watching too much RT. Nato is not giving Ukraine lethal weapons to say nothing of sending troops. Ukraine's movement doesn't automatically mean arrival at the destination.