Ukraine Thread

[Gilrandir]

Unfortunately for Putin, his scenario was successful only in the Crimea and Eastern Donbas - because regular Russian armed forces and/or spetznaz were involved.” Only? That is what he was saving from a very badly deteriorating situation in his point (Russian) point of view. If nothing done, he would have lost all.

As I have said, by behaving more reasonably, he could have still retained indirect control and significant influence over ALL Ukraine without any deterioration of his relations with the West. His dissatisfaction with what he has bears me out.

Can I remind you that actual negotiations has taken place, that agreement has been reach, and a mob decided to take the Parliament by storm? From Russian point of view, the ink of the agreement wasn’t even dry that the West didn’t give a monkey.

Can I remind you that when the ink was still not dry and before any action from the mob, Yanukovych escaped.
Can I remind you that when the ink was not yet spilt upon the paper, Putin started his Crimea adventure. Evidently, his decision to start "saving at least something" was made before the ink was wet, dry or still in the pen.

The fact as you as usual refuse to see the facts but are in the Putin Grand Dream conspiracy, your evaluation is flawed from the start.

I have no desire to reiterate the arguments which you will disregard anyway. So let's agree to disagree on it.

“Neither of the metioned parts are directly ruled from the outside” You should read Dayton Agreement.

Done. No indication in it that would liken the Crimea and occupied Donbas (ruled from Russia) to any part of Bosnia ruled from Serbia, Croatia, Brussels, Berlin, Washington...

“Your comparison is flawed” Really? Well, tell me when Ukrainian government will be in control of the Rebels areas.
“no changes to any laws or the constitution were introduced to give this rump any legality or influence on the policy of the whole country.” Crimea?

Once again: provide any evidence of a treaty between Ukraine and any other party that would grant either the Crimea or Lugandon special rights to change the external policy, the Constitution, or the previously signed agreements.

“In one of your prophetic insights you said that Ukraine will be split according to cultural divides.” I think. So it is not prophetic. And when did I say that? I might, but I didn’t recall as it is not how I analyse (a thing you have not a clue how to do) under ethnicity lines.

Ukraine-in-a-thread, # 431, as a reply to Kadagar's post (the bolded is his, the underlined is what I consider your support of his statement):
“MY OFFICIAL BET:
Russia will keep stirring the pot, and then send troops in to restore order.
Ukraine will be split after cultural lines.
Crimea with its strategic ports will become Russian.”
Yeap, a replica of US/NATO strategy in Kosovo. Russia might create a Crimean Liberation Army as well…. You don’t change a winning tactic.

Man, you gotta do something with that memory of yours.

He didn’t start the move… Without it, he would have all NATO troops along all the Ukrainian borders, and lost the only Russian harbours…

About starting the move - see Putin's confessions in his Crimean documentary.
About the borders - he managed to provide a friendly Lugandonean regime only along a small portion of it while he endangered his positions elsewhere (for example, with adjacent Nato countries) and united the nation (which had been divided before) on the issue of joining Nato. I don't consider it a worthwile exchange.

Putin will not re-start the war, as he has no interest in doing so. Ukrainian government might, as they want to involve NATO in it.

Little do you know how inefficient Ukrainian army's management is. It is in no position to start any offensive, it can hardly hold its ground. Putin, on the other hand, has all military trumps on his hands and is dissatisfied with his gains. Hearing the offensive rhetoric of Lugandonean leaders and seeing the progress they have made for the previous half-year, it is obvious who will make the next move.
Your evaluation is warped through having watched RT too much.

“Again three cheers for Putin the Strategist”: Yeah, because before this, the Baltic States were full of love for Russia and Russians.

The article spoke not of the unsympathetic Baltic states, but of Scandinavians and Finns, the latter having always been favorably predisposed towards Russia. Putin was successful in scaring them and making them think of joining NATO in future and tightening cooperation with its northern flank at present.