Ukraine Thread

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

I suppose the real question is, why does Brenus love Putin and Russia when Reussia is very clearly out to grab territory.

Perhaps he saw Reggie Yates' Extreme Russia: Episode 1, where a young girl in her twenties took a piece of paper, folded it in half and said "this is Russia now" then unfolded it and said "this is what Russia should be, and it's time to gather Russia back together".

Not an exact quote but the message was crystal clear - for many people in "Russia" their definition of "Russia" is actually the USSR. There are a significant number of people who see Russia as having a manifest destiny to rule a particular geographic region which is actually multi-ethnic, multi-cultural, and un-interested in being Russian.

[GenosseGeneral]

It seems like escalation is likely. It's not yet on Western sources (everyone is still busy with FIFA), but Ukrainian and separatist sources report new, heavy fights. Tensions had been growing over the past days, but this is possibly the worst we've seen since Debaltseve. Live ticker (in Russian, unfortunately):http://korrespondent.net/ukraine/352...marynky-onlain Under attack is a place called марьинка донецк область (just copy into google maps) It seems like the columns reported by Reuters last week were indeed heading to Ukraine.
Which is interesting in light of the fact, that the project Novorossiya, which claimed also other territories besides Luhansk and Donetsk, was only recently abandoned by the Kremlin. It also confirmed Donetsk and Luhansk's status as part of Ukraine.
Edit: Minsk is now fully dead. The Ukrainian General Staff just announced the return of heavy artillery to the frontline. According to them, the attack began at 4 a.m. this morning, using a two-digit number of tanks and more than a thousand soldiers, supported by heavy artillery.

This is bad. Really bad.

[Sarmatian]

Concerning MH-17:
https://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-a...ry-of-defence/

You'll never really stop to publish propaganda stories, will you?

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/auslan...a-1036874.html

Spiegel retracted the story. Analysts called it bogus. The person who created the site which belingcat used to "analyze" the data says belingcat analysis is an example "of how not to analyze satellite imagery"...

And you present it as some kind of fact? Why? There are thousands of dubious blogs we can link to that "prove" that this is all work of Illuminati, Zionists or aliens. Try to raise yourself above an average internet troll. This is one of the rare places where one can have a serious and rational political discussion (although nowhere near the level it used to be). Don't ruin that. Get some standards.

[Gilrandir]

Edit: Minsk is now fully dead.

It was dead a couple of days after it had been signed after Lugandoneans captured Debaltseve. Western powers turned a blind eye on it hoping that it will stay Putin's appetite.
But it really doesn't change anything. Do you think the West is going to do anything about it (except expressing grave concern, of course)? Lately I have been greatly concerned about Europe expressing no grave concerns for quite a time. I wonder where is the red line Europe is constantly talking about.
Edit: Strelkov reported Surkov's (Putin's aide) recent visit to Donetsk.

You'll never really stop to publish propaganda stories, will you?

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/auslan...a-1036874.html

Spiegel retracted the story. Analysts called it bogus. The person who created the site which belingcat used to "analyze" the data says belingcat analysis is an example "of how not to analyze satellite imagery"...

I saw an article and linked it. Do you want me to search the Internet for hours to prove or disprove it? I don't know how propagandistic you or others may find it. Take it or leave it.

[Brenus]

"I suppose the real question is, why does Brenus love Putin and Russia when Reussia is very clearly out to grab territory." Well, it won't change much for you to try to answer to the wrong questions. It won't be the first time...

"Take it or leave it": All coming from your "sources" I leave it. When you will have more reliable sources than social media, I will reconsider.

[Sarmatian]

I wonder where is the red line Europe is constantly talking about.

Germany, where it has been for the last 80 years.

I saw an article and linked it. Do you want me to search the Internet for hours to prove or disprove it? I don't know how propagandistic you or others may find it. Take it or leave it.

There was no need to spend hours searching the internet. The link was in the second comment on that very blog, easily noticeable at even a glance.

Similarly, it was easily noticeable that it was a propaganda blog, with nothing of value to add. I know that linking dubious blogs/text as proof that aliens built the pyramids or whatever else is your thing is all the rage on the internet since its inception, this is one of the rare boards that tends to have a slightly higher standard of discussion. So, yes, you should take a minute or two to assess the quality of the content you're posting.

[Strike For The South]

It must be tough living in Eastern Europe. Every generation or so the number of drunks in Russia reaches critical mass and then get unleashed upon those poor people.

[Brenus]

"Every generation or so the number of drunks in Russia reaches critical mass and then get unleashed upon those poor people."Hmm... In France (and in most European Countries) we though that was a German thingy (3 wars in less than 1 century, 2 World ones), the generational unleash... Well, obviously not because vodka... Well, we and the Germans worked on this, still on progress mind you, but we decided better to negotiate than to claim.

[Gilrandir]

"Take it or leave it": All coming from your "sources" I leave it. When you will have more reliable sources than social media, I will reconsider.

I don't remember my posts containing links to any of the social media. Even if there are, they are exceptional. Unless you understand "social media" in a different way.

this is one of the rare boards that tends to have a slightly higher standard of discussion.

You derail another thread (I thought it was my agenda) by offering a discussion on my style of posting. Probably you see it essential to take me down a peg or two. So now I have (at least) a double reputation: the Thread-derailer and the Forum-spoiler.

You present the Forum history as one of a downfall from the noble golden past (where sages exchanged their wisdom, their elusive discourse being unfathomable to other mortals) into the abyss of ignorance, cheap sensationalism and propaganda-mongering. And the only person who is responsible for it is me (since I never saw you criticize others for it). And the only person who stands guard on the brink of the abyss is you.
So perhaps it is one of the following: either it is wildly flattering for me as a person who is alone able to ruin an impregnable, solid and age-long edifice or the exceptional quality of discussion here is a delusion - it is no better and no worse than you may find elsewhere.

So, yes, you should take a minute or two to assess the quality of the content you're posting.

Mostly I try to do that. But in any case "quality" and "assessment" are subjective and arbitrary categories, so each should determine them himself.

[a completely inoffensive name]

Post #760 in this thread and somehow people here still believe that Putin is just misunderstood due to Western propaganda.

[GenosseGeneral]

It's post #761 into this thread and people still believe that's all about one individual's feelings.

[Sarmatian]

So perhaps it is one of the following: either it is wildly flattering for me as a person who is alone able to ruin an impregnable, solid and age-long edifice or the exceptional quality of discussion here is a delusion

Don't flatter yourself, you aren't ruining anything. Lowering the quality of the discussion in this thread, that you definitely do.

- it is no better and no worse than you may find elsewhere.

That is not my experience, but this is subjective, I'll give you that.

Mostly I try to do that. But in any case "quality" and "assessment" are subjective and arbitrary categories, so each should determine them himself.

There can be an honest mistake here or there, true, but you've posted a lot of links to propaganda blogs that support your narrative. It's happened to often to be considered an honest mistake, in my opinion, but do carry on, please.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Post #760 in this thread and somehow people here still believe that Putin is just misunderstood due to Western propaganda.

Brenus especially - which I find really strange. I get being cynical about things, and about NATO, but I don't get how that translated to a refusal to accept basic facts on the ground.

It's post #761 into this thread and people still believe that's all about one individual's feelings.

It's not about Putin's feelings - it's about his vision of the world and Russia's place in it. Putin rules Russia and, for the moment, Russia will carry out his will.

As far as Gilandir's posting style goes - he's frequently off base but he is the guy living through a Civil War backed by Russia so I think we can probably cut him some personnal slack and play the ball but not the man?

[Brenus]

“Brenus especially - which I find really strange” I find it very strange as well. I am one of the rare saying that he is not an evil genius trying to overtake the world by long planned mature manipulations but merely a good politician exploiting others mistake, and knowing what he wants. I am one of the rare who question the Russian capacity to roll to Berlin, and having doubts on the total capacity of Putin to control the Rebels.

“I don't get how that translated to a refusal to accept basic facts on the ground.”: Oh, I do accept fact on the grounds, you don’t. Your refusal to acknowledge the very nature of the Ukrainian Regime, even after the glorification of the Ukrainian Nazi Past, which was obvious after the Coup (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michae...b_4938747.html
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-30414955

“I think we can probably cut him some personnal slack and play the ball but not the man?” says the man who posted “I suppose the real question is, why does Brenus love Putin”.

[Sarmatian]

Brenus especially - which I find really strange. I get being cynical about things, and about NATO, but I don't get how that translated to a refusal to accept basic facts on the ground.

Facts on the ground are not as clear cut as western/ukrainian politicians and media are portraying them, but, at the end of the day, there is no question that what Russia did and still does in Ukraine is wrong. I can understand their position - west tried to undermine their influence and Ukraine and they reacted like anyone who read a single article about global politics should have known they would react. That doesn't excuse their actions, because there is nothing that can justify that amount of human suffering. After that I blame Kiev politicians, which refuse to accept the current situation and make necessary political changes for it to stop. They've gambled, they've lost, they should walk away before they lose even more.

The bottom line is, this is not unique and West (and its satellites) has been doing stuff like that for many centuries. Russia is suddenly now a big bad wolf for doing what the West's been doing, many more times and on a much bigger scale. On that issue, I can only say -> Cry me a river.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

“Brenus especially - which I find really strange” I find it very strange as well. I am one of the rare saying that he is not an evil genius trying to overtake the world by long planned mature manipulations but merely a good politician exploiting others mistake, and knowing what he wants. I am one of the rare who question the Russian capacity to roll to Berlin, and having doubts on the total capacity of Putin to control the Rebels.

Well, I never said any of that, at least nine months ago I said that I thought Putin had made serious long-term strategic mistakes, and I pointed out that Putin needs the separatists to fight his dirty war for him, so although he could cut them off from gear and supplies he won't until he has to.

Having said that, I do not feel the need to repeat it.

“I don't get how that translated to a refusal to accept basic facts on the ground.”: Oh, I do accept fact on the grounds, you don’t. Your refusal to acknowledge the very nature of the Ukrainian Regime, even after the glorification of the Ukrainian Nazi Past, which was obvious after the Coup (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michae...b_4938747.html
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-30414955

Well that symbol doesn't actually look a lot like the Wolf Cross, does it? Even allowing that the Azoz Battalion are very extreme and Right Wing (I recall some of their members claiming Putin is a Jew and it's all about protecting Russia from the Jews) it remains a fact that their are many more units in "New Russia" espousing the same beliefs.

The fact that their are Right-Wing Militias fighting for Ukraine and Right Wing Politicians in the parliament does not make it a Nazi coup or a NAZI government. The current government has included nothing even resembling Nazi's since the elections.

Turn it around - the French have been electing lots of Nazi's and Fascists over the last few years, and keep flighting with electing a Fascist president, but nobody would claim France has a Fascist or NAZI government.

“I think we can probably cut him some personnal slack and play the ball but not the man?” says the man who posted “I suppose the real question is, why does Brenus love Putin”.

Well, you have no excuse for being pro-Russian in this context, and I'm wondering if you're just trolling at this point.

Facts on the ground are not as clear cut as western/ukrainian politicians and media are portraying them, but, at the end of the day, there is no question that what Russia did and still does in Ukraine is wrong. I can understand their position - west tried to undermine their influence and Ukraine and they reacted like anyone who read a single article about global politics should have known they would react. That doesn't excuse their actions, because there is nothing that can justify that amount of human suffering. After that I blame Kiev politicians, which refuse to accept the current situation and make necessary political changes for it to stop. They've gambled, they've lost, they should walk away before they lose even more.

The bottom line is, this is not unique and West (and its satellites) has been doing stuff like that for many centuries. Russia is suddenly now a big bad wolf for doing what the West's been doing, many more times and on a much bigger scale. On that issue, I can only say -> Cry me a river.

I suppose a lot of this depends on perspective. You have to remember that immediately following the political crisis/coup that Russia occupied a the Crimea and the Ukrainians offered only non-violent resistance. They were lauded for it and it got them nothing. In view of that it's not hard to see why they're now fighting tooth and nail. If they had not best-case they would already have lost both of those provinces completely.

[Husar]

Well, you have no excuse for being pro-Russian in this context, and I'm wondering if you're just trolling at this point.

Post #766 and PVC is still seeing pro-russians where there aren't any.

[a completely inoffensive name]

Post #767 and there have been 766 posts before me.

[a completely inoffensive name]

In all seriousness, Ukraine has been destabilized and will continue to be destabilized for as long as the rebels have support. Putin has his port and has weakened a potential threat at his border. Nothing left to do other than keep counting the bodies and wonder where Putin wants to expand next. And yes, I believe this whole affair has shown how inept Europe is when it comes to defense. Putin now must be plotting how to save those "ethnic russians" that need saving in Estonia and Latvia.

[Gilrandir]

(http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michae...b_4938747.html
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-30414955

All I can add to PVC's post (indeed, it echoes what I have told not once) is that the two links you gave aim (as I see it) to call attention to the fact that THERE WERE nazis on Maidan. Who denies it? The question is how significant was their influence. As the later developments (parliamentary and presidential elections) show, their influence was rendered non-existent. And you claim that Maidan ended in a nazi coup. Strange are those nazis if AFTER A COUP which GAVE THEM ALL THE POWER (as you claim it) they peacefully step down and merge with the background. Meek nazis?
And the phrase "Ukrainian Nazi past" shows how unbiased and impartial is your attitude to Ukraine in general. One might as well claim that France has a Nazi past.

Facts on the ground are not as clear cut as western/ukrainian politicians and media are portraying them, but, at the end of the day, there is no question that what Russia did and still does in Ukraine is wrong.

After that I blame Kiev politicians, which refuse to accept the current situation and make necessary political changes for it to stop. They've gambled, they've lost, they should walk away before they lose even more.

So no blame on the Moscow Politician who refuses to make necessary political changes to stop? It looks that his gamble is not a victory either.

But again I see a failure to realize that whatever sensible concessions Kyiv politicians may offer, it is Putin who ultimately chooses the course of further development of the conflict. Once he has gone that far he can't just stop. In case he does (or, moreover, retracts) his all previous desicions and actions will seem fallacious which he will never suffer to admit. There are no face-saving steps for him but to push on till he gets what he wants.

But even if we imagine that a peace of some kind was made with Putin, who will ever believe that he will stick to the stipulated conditions? Not Ukraine, for sure. And not Russia's neighbors. Thus Putin is himself heading to where he has long been imagining himself in - to the besieged fortress state.

In all seriousness, Ukraine has been destabilized and will continue to be destabilized for as long as the rebels have support. Putin has his port and has weakened a potential threat at his border.

As I have remarked, tactically Russia looks to have won. Strategically, it has lost. It deprived itself of historically (more or less) friendly neighbor and gave it a decisive push EU- and NATO-wards, put on alert other neighbors, whether friendly (Belarus and Kazakhstan) or otherwise (the Baltic states), almost ruined its ties with the West, got its economy on decline... Is it a good exchange for a port and a heavily donated region with no land-bridge to the bulk of Russia? Let everyone answer the question himself.


An opinion of a Russian politilogist on Russia's current international stance:
http://www.the-american-interest.com...-of-blackmail/

[Brenus]

“Well, I never said any of that, at least nine months ago” So, that makes you a Putin lover…

Well that symbol doesn't actually look a lot like the Wolf Cross, does it? Nope, it is http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2nd_SS_...sion_Das_Reich

“Turn it around - the French have been electing lots of Nazi's and Fascists over the last few years” And? I will even play my Gilrandir and arguing about figures (2 MP in the National Parliament!), there is actually and in a recent past no openly Nazi in the French Government. And there are no official political parties openly claiming to be Nazi. And even if, that wouldn’t be an excuse.

“Well, you have no excuse for being pro-Russian in this context” This was answered by someone else.

“GAVE THEM ALL THE POWER (as you claim it)” Lies.

“One might as well claim that France has a Nazi past.” And one might be right. The difference between the nations who love Nazi and the none loving Nazi is that nor are the Germans or the French are proud of their Nazi, whereas in Ukraine they are now national heroes.

“Strategically, it has lost.” In keeping a harbour for its fleet, securing under-water pipelines and pushing potential NATO troops a little bit to the west? Few defeats like this and Putin take all Europe…

“to the besieged fortress state” You should follow more closely international politics. Without even mentioning China and India, USA and EU need Putin/Russia badly for Iran, Iraq, Syria and other little problems.
I think that the selling by Russia of AA missile to Iran is a “free” warning. Of course, it won’t really matter as everyone knows that Russian Material is crap as it is design and built by drunken corrupted stupid Russians in obsolete factories.

[Montmorency]

whereas in Ukraine they are now national heroes.

So, like the Cetniks in Serbia?

In keeping a harbour for its fleet, securing under-water pipelines and pushing potential NATO troops a little bit to the west? Few defeats like this and Putin take all Europe…

Black Knight Syndrome

USA and EU need Putin/Russia badly for Iran, Iraq, Syria and other little problems.

I'm very interested to hear the your basis for that interpretation.

[Sarmatian]

So, like the Cetniks in Serbia?

Cetniks are a disgrace (the ww2 and the nineties versions - original, Balkan War version was ok I guess).

The spent little time fighting the nazis and more time fighting the communists and killing civilians. They were small scale mostly. Not nearly UPA level, but still.

[Brenus]

"I'm very interested to hear the your basis for that interpretation." Read your usual newspapers about Iran Nuclear Program, civil war in Syria, Isis and others points where the West need Russia for various reasons.

@ Montmorency : No: Marechal de Villars, after the battle of Malplaquet (French defeat against the English, but left the English incapable to exploit): “If it please God to give your majesty's enemies another such victory, they are ruined” to Louis the XIV.

[Kagemusha]

Let us see in three weeks whether if EU will renew sanctions against Russia. If the case will be such and the sanctions will be renewed. I dont see any reason for Russia to hold back at Ukraine any more.

What is the most disturbing to me is that effectively nobody is benefiting from the current situation, except maybe US for gaining more influence at Europe, while EU is only loosing from the situation, similar to Russia and Ukraine.

[Husar]

Yes, if you follow the money (a tried and tested method for finding the responsible person from US capitalists), this is all the fault of the US after all.
I am not saying that is the case though, I'm just asking questions.

[Gilrandir]

“Turn it around - the French have been electing lots of Nazi's and Fascists over the last few years” And? I will even play my Gilrandir and arguing about figures (2 MP in the National Parliament!), there is actually and in a recent past no openly Nazi in the French Government. And there are no official political parties openly claiming to be Nazi. And even if, that wouldn’t be an excuse.

As the latest local elections in France show, Le Pen's party is gaining votes not losing them (as it happened to Svoboda and Right Sector in Ukraine). Who knows, perhaps some elections later we will witness the greatest nightmare of Brenus come true.

“One might as well claim that France has a Nazi past.” And one might be right. The difference between the nations who love Nazi and the none loving Nazi is that nor are the Germans or the French are proud of their Nazi, whereas in Ukraine they are now national heroes.

Charges against UPA and Bandera are not of them being nazis, but of collaborationism and massacres of Poles. While the latter was true, the former (as I have shown) is disputable.

“Strategically, it has lost.” In keeping a harbour for its fleet, securing under-water pipelines and pushing potential NATO troops a little bit to the west? Few defeats like this and Putin take all Europe…

1. Keeping a harbor which can be used only defensively is a tactical gain.
2. What pipelines do you mean? The South Stream was suspended indefinitely, any others are still only nascent projects so far from implementation, that it is precarious to speak of them being "secured".
3. Before the Russian invasion started the NATO troops were on the borders of Russia in the north (so no pushing back happened there) and in Romania to the south. By doing what he has done Putin made it likely for the NATO troops to come closer to Russia in the south (Ukraine is unlikely to be averse to any NATO's overtures as to deployment of its forces), to be reinfoced in the north, moreover, Finland is much disturbed and is contemplating joining NATO. And you call it a strategic victory?

“to the besieged fortress state” You should follow more closely international politics. Without even mentioning China and India, USA and EU need Putin/Russia badly for Iran, Iraq, Syria and other little problems.

Somehow, they have been doing fine without Russia so far. So this "badly need" is only your wishful thinking.
As for Russia, the besieged state mentality has been actively propelled in it recently, so that it may unite the nation and not question Putin's aggressive politics.

The spent little time fighting the nazis and more time fighting the communists and killing civilians. They were small scale mostly. Not nearly UPA level, but still.

It is easy to judge from the age distance of 70 years and with modern awareness. You seem to be concerned about "average everyday people in the street". Let's imagine such a man in western Ukraine between the world wars.
He knows he is Ukrainian, but he sees his land being under Polish power. He wants to change it, but it is not likely to happen. And then, in September 1939 Poland falls apart and the Soviets "liberate" their land ostensibly to join it with "Greater Ukraine". He is glad and even inspired. But within less than 2 years, by massive repressions, executions and deportations the Soviets succeded in estranging the locals. When Nazis come, he feels enheartened and hopes to finally have an independent Ukrainian state. But again he is cheated of all hopes and promises. So he takes a gun and starts fighting everyone - the Poles (remembering his old grievances), the Soviets (remembering the recent grievances), the Nazis (seeing the current grievances). He may make temporary alliances with either of his enemies to fight another one.
Naturally, he is embittered and his heart is hardened in the continuous struggle against anyone who (as he thinks) is out to grab his land.
Having these considerations in mind and trying to put oneself in his place makes me wish to forgive such a man defending his native land against all odds.

[Husar]

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/0...231638732.html

Russia President Vladimir Putin has told an Italian newspaper that his country was "not a threat to the West", and that he was still committed to a Ukraine peace deal despite a fresh flare-up in violence.
"I would like to say - there's no need to be afraid of Russia," Putin told Corriere della Sera in an interview published on Saturday, ruling out a major conflict between Russia and NATO member countries.
"The world has changed so much that people in their right mind cannot imagine such a large-scale military conflict today."

Only a sick person - and even then only in his sleep - can imagine that Russia would suddenly attack NATO.

There you have it, we can all calm down now.

[Gilrandir]

There you have it, we can all calm down now.

I'm not sure if you are serious. To believe Putin? You must be smarter than that.

[Greyblades]

We're not afraid of Russia attacking Nato, we're worried Russia will attack someone outside of it that we actually care about.