Ukraine Thread

**Gilrandir** · 11-06-2016, 07:12

More on Surkovleaks:
http://in.mobile.reuters.com/article/idINKBN12Y2P5

**Hooahguy** · 11-06-2016, 13:58

Gilrandir, is there a fear in Ukraine of a renewed Russian offensive in the Donbass region should Trump win the election?

**Gilrandir** · 11-06-2016, 16:03

Originally Posted by Hooahguy

Gilrandir, is there a fear in Ukraine of a renewed Russian offensive in the Donbass region should Trump win the election?

I would say that the fear of offensive is minute. By now the cost of offensive for Putin has grown so much (since Ukrainian army is more prepered for it, has dugged in and is better equipped than in 2014) that he will not risk it whoever the president of America will be. On the other hand, the apprehension connected with Trump as a president is that the USA will stop supporting Ukraine or, to make it worse, will team up with Putin in putting pressure on us to change constitution (giving the occupied territories a special status), to hold elections before the border has been sealed and Russian military have vacated the premises and other unpleasant things Putin has in mind for Ukraine. Or that Trump will lift anti-Russian sanctions and recognize Crimea as a part of Russia.

**Gilrandir** · 11-07-2016, 15:58

Montenegro officials claim Russia was behind the attempted coup. Some of the coup squad have martial experience in Donbas.
http://abcnews.go.com/International/...tempt-43339075

**Sarmatian** · 11-07-2016, 23:06

Originally Posted by Gilrandir

Montenegro officials claim Russia was behind the attempted coup. Some of the coup squad have martial experience in Donbas.
http://abcnews.go.com/International/...tempt-43339075

I don't bother to check if your statements are true anymore, but I can tell you this is bollox without having to check.

**Montmorency** · 11-07-2016, 23:46

I don't bother to check if your statements are true anymore, but I can tell you this is bollox without having to check.

Which one, that Montenegro officials claim something, or that their claim is correct? How can you tell it's bollox, for my sake?

**Seamus Fermanagh** · 11-08-2016, 00:49

I find myself underwhelmed.

This coup attempt, if these details are even vaguely correct, was amateurish at best. I think if the Montenegrans were making this up whole cloth as leverage in internal politics, then the plot would be a lot more 'threatening.' I could devise better. In fact, when playing D&D, I did.

Yet if we accept the story as true, what does Russia have to do with it? Some Serbs have felt a kinship with Russia for centuries now. Why would we be surprised that some Serbs chose to go and "see the elephant" by fighting for a Pro-Russian militia? In my own Civil War, a number of our Irish volunteers in the Army of the Potomac spoke only Gaelic when they arrived. Foreign born volunteers are scarcely rare. The Brits did not blame us when some of them went home and joined the Fenians in 1867.

This is hardly conclusive evidence for a Russian backed plot for Serb domination of the Balkans. If there were such a plot hatched by Russia -- led by ex KGB folk -- I suspect it would be better funded, organized, planned, and led then this shocking cock-up.

**Sarmatian** · 11-08-2016, 13:36

Originally Posted by Montmorency

Which one, that Montenegro officials claim something, or that their claim is correct? How can you tell it's bollox, for my sake?

Because it is a tried and true method of current Montenegro strongman to portray himself as a defender of Montenegro against foreign interest and/or plots.

It's a tactic he's been employing with varying success for the last 2.5 decades of his rule. No one usually pays attention, but now the story was picked up by some because it involves Russia.

The basis of the current opposition also has been formed a long time ago, early 2000's, at the time when Russia couldn't have possibly had power/funds/means to influence it.

Is it possible that Russia sent some funds to the opposition? Yes, I wouldn't rule it out, but to say that Russia controls the opposition or is organizing coups is silly.

Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh

This is hardly conclusive evidence for a Russian backed plot for Serb domination of the Balkans.

Interestingly, the current narrative of historically strong Russian/Serbian relationship isn't really justified. Serbia was never Russian first choice. Actually, Bulgarians were Russian favourites. Serbs were, correctly or incorrectly, seen as being under too much western influence, even in the 19th century.

Not really related to the talk at hand, just thought it could be interesting.