Ukraine Thread

[Gilrandir]

We (those who trust blogs more than state-media and quality newspapers)

Do you realize that receiving the news that the majority of a nation trust social media Brenus might have a heart attack? Or hamorrhage?
And if you trust blogs:
https://twitter.com/TheEIU_Europe/st...67317060050944

[Husar]

That's not a blog, it's a tweet. Way too official for Fragony, probably a lie or a ruse depending what his secret inside sources say.

[Fragony]

lol I got no secret sources I just prefer blogs

[Gilrandir]

Then a more official update:
http://www.france24.com/en/20161031-...t-row?ref=tw_i

[Fragony]

We aren't letting him get away so easily, a crowdfund to campaign against it raided 14.000 in just a few hours and 600 volunteered, and the day has just started. There is no middle-ground to be found for 'mr' Rutte, he either signs or he doesn't. He can sign it wouldn't be illegal, but it wouldn't exactly make him very popular (not that he isn't unpopular already)

[Gilrandir]

He can sign it wouldn't be illegal, but it wouldn't exactly make him very popular (not that he isn't unpopular already)

You sound as if whatever his choice is gonna be, he is a dead meat anyway.

[Fragony]

You sound as if whatever his choice is gonna be, he is a dead meat anyway.

Well he could immediatly could have rejected it, instead he choosed to just ignore it hoping it would just go away. He can't do anything right anymore right anymore no, everybody pro or against loathe his attitude of hoping it would just stop if he just ignored it. To be honest it really isn't about the treaty anymore for a lot of people, which is kinda wrong

[Husar]

lol I got no secret sources I just prefer blogs

Would the Dutch people agree if the association treaty were extended to include Russia?
That would also make all the EUSSR jokes more credible finally.

[Fragony]

We already have an association-treaty with Russia they are a valuable trading partner, especially flowers and cheese go there. But we don't have a militatary agreement with them. Who says that the association-treaty with Ukraine is just about trade is either lying or not informed. The EU wanted to do this as silent as possible and it didn't work, inquisitive people actually read what's in it, hence the 'no'. Mr Rutte keps insisting that it was just a trade-treaty but there is no way back anymore for him, we now know it isn't, and he knows that we know he knew that all the time. That's internet for ya, state-tv and 'quality newspapers' are losing ground

[Husar]

We already have an association-treaty with Russia

And you're a Nazi, because why bother with what I'm actually saying when I can just say something that sounds good to me.

[Fragony]

And you're a Nazi, because why bother with what I'm actually saying when I can just say something that sounds good to me.

Your logic works differently, can't do anything with it, what makes sense to you doesn't to me

by the way, I know that you aren't actually call me a nazi but some could think you do

[Husar]

Your logic works differently, can't do anything with it, what makes sense to you doesn't to me

by the way, I know that you aren't actually call me a nazi but some could think you do

So cute.
I know you aren't actually saying you want all muslims out of Europe but some could think you do (when you say you want all islam out).
I know (actually hope) you aren't actually saying the EU has an association treaty with Russia, but some could think you just did....

[Fragony]

So cute.
I know you aren't actually saying you want all muslims out of Europe but some could think you do (when you say you want all islam out).
I know (actually hope) you aren't actually saying the EU has an association treaty with Russia, but some could think you just did....

What can I say if they think that, what they think is up to them I have no control over that

[Husar]

What can I say if they think that, what they think is up to them I have no control over that

Same here then Mr. Nazi...

[Fragony]

Been fun bye org

[Sarmatian]

Did Fragony just leave?

[Gilrandir]

We already have an association-treaty with Russia they are a valuable trading partner, especially flowers and cheese go there.

It is the first time I hear that the EU has an association treaty with Russia. If you mean the Netherlands have some kind of agreement/treaty, it can't be called "association", since it would presuppose some kind of organization, and the Netherlands aren't one.

Who says that the association-treaty with Ukraine is just about trade is either lying or not informed. The EU wanted to do this as silent as possible and it didn't work, inquisitive people actually read what's in it, hence the 'no'.

It seems to me the two of us were inquisitive enough and didn't find any mentioning of the military part in the agreement. But you keep fantasizing.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Did Fragony just leave?

Seemed like it to me.

[Gilrandir]

There is much talk in Ukraine on the so-called Surkovleaks - the information from Putin's aide's computer which was hacked by "Cyberjunta". It only started to appear in western media (http://www.smh.com.au/world/us-elect...25-gsaoes.html), so you are welcome to search for it yourself. Generally, it contains the Kremlin's plans on instigating unrest in Ukraine in 2014 and on its subsequent partitioning.
http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/10/25/...ukraine-leaks/

[Gilrandir]

And Russia pokes its nose everywhere - Italy including (article isn't completely available if you aren't a subscriber but enough to get an impression):
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ru...enzi-2h9kdrnqt

[Gilrandir]

More on Surkovleaks:
http://in.mobile.reuters.com/article/idINKBN12Y2P5

[Hooahguy]

Gilrandir, is there a fear in Ukraine of a renewed Russian offensive in the Donbass region should Trump win the election?

[Gilrandir]

Gilrandir, is there a fear in Ukraine of a renewed Russian offensive in the Donbass region should Trump win the election?

I would say that the fear of offensive is minute. By now the cost of offensive for Putin has grown so much (since Ukrainian army is more prepered for it, has dugged in and is better equipped than in 2014) that he will not risk it whoever the president of America will be. On the other hand, the apprehension connected with Trump as a president is that the USA will stop supporting Ukraine or, to make it worse, will team up with Putin in putting pressure on us to change constitution (giving the occupied territories a special status), to hold elections before the border has been sealed and Russian military have vacated the premises and other unpleasant things Putin has in mind for Ukraine. Or that Trump will lift anti-Russian sanctions and recognize Crimea as a part of Russia.

[Gilrandir]

Montenegro officials claim Russia was behind the attempted coup. Some of the coup squad have martial experience in Donbas.
http://abcnews.go.com/International/...tempt-43339075

[Sarmatian]

Montenegro officials claim Russia was behind the attempted coup. Some of the coup squad have martial experience in Donbas.
http://abcnews.go.com/International/...tempt-43339075

I don't bother to check if your statements are true anymore, but I can tell you this is bollox without having to check.

[Montmorency]

I don't bother to check if your statements are true anymore, but I can tell you this is bollox without having to check.

Which one, that Montenegro officials claim something, or that their claim is correct? How can you tell it's bollox, for my sake?

[Seamus Fermanagh]

I find myself underwhelmed.

This coup attempt, if these details are even vaguely correct, was amateurish at best. I think if the Montenegrans were making this up whole cloth as leverage in internal politics, then the plot would be a lot more 'threatening.' I could devise better. In fact, when playing D&D, I did.

Yet if we accept the story as true, what does Russia have to do with it? Some Serbs have felt a kinship with Russia for centuries now. Why would we be surprised that some Serbs chose to go and "see the elephant" by fighting for a Pro-Russian militia? In my own Civil War, a number of our Irish volunteers in the Army of the Potomac spoke only Gaelic when they arrived. Foreign born volunteers are scarcely rare. The Brits did not blame us when some of them went home and joined the Fenians in 1867.

This is hardly conclusive evidence for a Russian backed plot for Serb domination of the Balkans. If there were such a plot hatched by Russia -- led by ex KGB folk -- I suspect it would be better funded, organized, planned, and led then this shocking cock-up.

[Gilrandir]

I don't bother to check if your statements are true anymore, but I can tell you this is bollox without having to check.

Offer your reading of the event and we will consider how plausible it is.

Which one, that Montenegro officials claim something, or that their claim is correct? How can you tell it's bollox, for my sake?

There are two reasons why Sarmatian considers it bollox:
1. It was linked by me (never mind that it was not MY claim).
2. It implicates Russia.

Yet if we accept the story as true, what does Russia have to do with it?

Russia is the one who voiced its dissatisfaction with Montenegro joining NATO.

This is hardly conclusive evidence for a Russian backed plot for Serb domination of the Balkans. If there were such a plot hatched by Russia -- led by ex KGB folk -- I suspect it would be better funded, organized, planned, and led then this shocking cock-up.

The evidence is far from being conclusive - yet Russia said the same about its participation in the Crimea operation, MH17 and the Donbas wild goose chase. Who knows what facts will surface sooner or later.

Moreover, we sometimes tend to overestimate things, including the might of Russian special services. Even if they put their mind into it there is some/fat/slim (choose to your liking) chance that the plot can go wrong - the way it was with the so-called "Russian spring". Let's suppose they outsourced their coup hoping it would be too easy to bother overtaxing themselves.

[Sarmatian]

Which one, that Montenegro officials claim something, or that their claim is correct? How can you tell it's bollox, for my sake?

Because it is a tried and true method of current Montenegro strongman to portray himself as a defender of Montenegro against foreign interest and/or plots.

It's a tactic he's been employing with varying success for the last 2.5 decades of his rule. No one usually pays attention, but now the story was picked up by some because it involves Russia.

The basis of the current opposition also has been formed a long time ago, early 2000's, at the time when Russia couldn't have possibly had power/funds/means to influence it.

Is it possible that Russia sent some funds to the opposition? Yes, I wouldn't rule it out, but to say that Russia controls the opposition or is organizing coups is silly.

This is hardly conclusive evidence for a Russian backed plot for Serb domination of the Balkans.

Interestingly, the current narrative of historically strong Russian/Serbian relationship isn't really justified. Serbia was never Russian first choice. Actually, Bulgarians were Russian favourites. Serbs were, correctly or incorrectly, seen as being under too much western influence, even in the 19th century.

Not really related to the talk at hand, just thought it could be interesting.

[Gilrandir]

Because it is a tried and true method of current Montenegro strongman to portray himself as a defender of Montenegro against foreign interest and/or plots.

It's a tactic he's been employing with varying success for the last 2.5 decades of his rule. No one usually pays attention, but now the story was picked up by some because it involves Russia.

The basis of the current opposition also has been formed a long time ago, early 2000's, at the time when Russia couldn't have possibly had power/funds/means to influence it.

Is it possible that Russia sent some funds to the opposition? Yes, I wouldn't rule it out, but to say that Russia controls the opposition or is organizing coups is silly.

It is also silly to think that Russia doesn't mind Montenegro joining NATO. And by now we know what Russia can do if it wants to prevent a country from joining NATO.

More details on Surkovleaks:
https://medium.com/dfrlab/breaking-d...3cb#.jzmq2bvrh