Ukraine Thread

[Montmorency]

Kudos to Sarmatian for a solid post.

It is also silly to think that Russia doesn't mind Montenegro joining NATO. And by now we know what Russia can do if it wants to prevent a country from joining NATO.

Let's recall the process of ways, means, and ends. Montenegro accession is a nice symbolic boost for America, but a very limited one. Also from a military perspective, Montenegro is a tiny country with a not-very-strategic position, and fewer resources and smaller population than the Baltic countries. Its military, though participating in the process (and having participated in various NATO programs in past years) is never going to amount to more than the gendarmerie of a small town. Russia, to voice its displeasure, has more tools closer at hand, in Syria, in Ukraine, Romania, Poland, the Balkans, Scandinavia, etc. for causing disruption, calling attention to itself, changing global perceptions...

It is deeply unlikely they ever had the resources for a coup in Montenegro, or that they could develop them within a year. Slightly likelier would be that they sponsored a disruptive 'suicide coup', but its hard to see how it furthers Russian interests in any respect, only costing Putin some of his hard-earned aura of canniness and further steeling European countries to guard against Russian machinations.

It's a bad idea to try to directly compare this to the Turkish coup attempt in the summer, so I'll simply urge a consideration of how much Russia could have had to play in that affair going by this attitude. It's not out of the realm of possibility, but it assumes so much in terms of unknown or unknowable secret resources, secret goals, secret actors, secret decisions, and secret communications that it verges on 'Aliens did it' for solid ground. That kind of speculation isn't worth the time unless you have something concrete to point out.

[Gilrandir]

Russian political elite perceives NATO as an unfriendly alliance. In that light, it obviously minds anything involving NATO. That doesn't mean they're gonna execute coups willy nilly all around the world.

No need to do it "all around the world". It may focus on those who were within their orbit not long ago and then pivoted NATOwards.

Also from a military perspective, Montenegro is a tiny country with a not-very-strategic position

Russia, to voice its displeasure, has more tools closer at hand, in Syria, in Ukraine, Romania, Poland, the Balkans, Scandinavia, etc. for causing disruption, calling attention to itself, changing global perceptions...

Montenegro IS in the Balkans.

All those considerations are reasonable. Perhaps there is an explanation for a precipitate and unannounced visit of Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev to Serbia just when the scandal was evolving? And the deportation from Serbia two Russian citizens who were allegedly party to the purported coup?
https://themoscowtimes.com/news/spy-...elations-55921

[Sarmatian]

Montenegro IS in the Balkans.

It is, but it is unimportant in so many ways.

NATO bases already are situated much closer to Russia. If new are to be built, there are much better options, both in terms of cost and strategic position.

Military and economic power of Montenegro is insignificant.

The rocky shores of Montenegro aren't well suited to large ports. Its biggest port in the city of Bar is too shallow for bigger merchant ships, let alone big military ships, and there are at least a few better port options in the circle of 200-300km.

I could go on, but you get the gist. Those are the main reasons I don't believe Montenegro is worth it. Just like how they survived as independent state next to huge Ottoman Empire for more than a century - nobody really gives a ****! You may choose to believe that, or you may trust the chief prosecutor from Montenegro who insists there is no evidence of Moscow involvement. Or don't believe any of that, I really don't care.

[Gilrandir]

It is, but it is unimportant in so many ways.

NATO bases already are situated much closer to Russia. If new are to be built, there are much better options, both in terms of cost and strategic position.

Military and economic power of Montenegro is insignificant.

The rocky shores of Montenegro aren't well suited to large ports. Its biggest port in the city of Bar is too shallow for bigger merchant ships, let alone big military ships, and there are at least a few better port options in the circle of 200-300km.

I could go on, but you get the gist. Those are the main reasons I don't believe Montenegro is worth it. Just like how they survived as independent state next to huge Ottoman Empire for more than a century - nobody really gives a ****! You may choose to believe that, or you may trust the chief prosecutor from Montenegro who insists there is no evidence of Moscow involvement. Or don't believe any of that, I really don't care.

If it is so insignificant, why Russia is so disturbed about it joining NATO? And there is still no explanation to Patrushev's helter skelter visit to Serbia and two Russians ostensibly involved into the coup.

[Sarmatian]

Personally, I believe he came for sex and booze, but officials maintain it was about enhancing cooperation in the sphere of security, especially concerning international terrorism, migrant crisis and situation in Kosovo. He met with minister of foreign affairs and minister of interior affairs, payed his respects to Russian soldiers who died during liberation of Belgrade, held a press conference... Everyone on both sides said the visit was planned for months in advance, and that there were no Russian citizens deported from Serbia.

The entire story was launched after a daily newspaper "Danas" wrote an article about it, citing unnamed source. That newspaper is known for making outlandish claims and is not considered reputable.

But, we all know that's bollox and he came for sex and booze.

[Brenus]

Montegro: 622,000 hbts.
US (NATO) base in Kosovo.
Really, what would be the interest of Montenegro for NATO? Naval Bases? Croatia would be more than happy to offer that... And Croatia has all the former military naval ports built by Tito.

The only thing worth to fight for in Montenegro is olive oil and Malboro made in Russia smuggling....

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Montegro: 622,000 hbts.
US (NATO) base in Kosovo.
Really, what would be the interest of Montenegro for NATO? Naval Bases? Croatia would be more than happy to offer that... And Croatia has all the former military naval ports built by Tito.

The only thing worth to fight for in Montenegro is olive oil and Malboro made in Russia smuggling....

hbts.?

Hobbits? They'd be in NATO in a hot minute if that's true.

[Gilrandir]

Montegro: 622,000 hbts.
US (NATO) base in Kosovo.
Really, what would be the interest of Montenegro for NATO? Naval Bases? Croatia would be more than happy to offer that... And Croatia has all the former military naval ports built by Tito.

The only thing worth to fight for in Montenegro is olive oil and Malboro made in Russia smuggling....

So NATO is inveterately stupid in accepting Montenegro?