Ukraine Thread

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

On the one hand, this is a problem. On the other hand, the Russian "frozen conflict" doctrine relies on the fiction that territory cannot be annexed by force (when it obviously can).

One thing which Ukraine could theoretically do is recognise the de facto independence of the rebel areas and once this is done they would be free to join NATO.

Ukraine would thereby yield territory in exchange for stability and a permanent check on Russian expansion.

Hardly an ideal situation, but possibly a better long-term option than the status quo.

[Gilrandir]

Don't know anything about Zelezny, but perhaps more notable is that Trump confirms "Finders Keepers" doctrine for clay:

1. I don't know anything about Zelezny either. Do you mean https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roger_Zelazny?
2. And this bears on Ukranian election because...

One thing which Ukraine could theoretically do is recognise the de facto independence of the rebel areas and once this is done they would be free to join NATO.

Ukraine would thereby yield territory in exchange for stability and a permanent check on Russian expansion.

De facto Ukraine recognizes that it can't control some of its territory yet it doesn't make NATO more amenable. I believe you meant de jure?

But anyway, it is inveterately naive to believe that Ukraine will be accepted to NATO after relinquishing the claim on the "rebel areas" (for once because there is the Crimean issue as well - or do you suggest relinquishing that too?) or that it will get any sort of stability or that Russian expansion will be checked. While the current Russian regime is at power Ukraine will get neither of those.

[Gilrandir]

The election campaign gets weirder.
https://edition.cnn.com/2019/04/06/e..._medium=social

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

De facto Ukraine recognizes that it can't control some of its territory yet it doesn't make NATO more amenable. I believe you meant de jure?

But anyway, it is inveterately naive to believe that Ukraine will be accepted to NATO after relinquishing the claim on the "rebel areas" (for once because there is the Crimean issue as well - or do you suggest relinquishing that too?) or that it will get any sort of stability or that Russian expansion will be checked. While the current Russian regime is at power Ukraine will get neither of those.

I apologise for not being clearer, what I meant was that Ukraine could De Jure recognise the De Facto situation. I'm not suggesting that Ukraine do this, merely pointing out that the doctrine against "aggressive war" is something Russia has used to its advantage and its erosion reduces that advantage.

[Gilrandir]

Russia's doctrine is the one of protecting Russians and Russian speakers wherever it can reach. While Russia deems those in Ukraine oppressed its aggressive policy towards Ukraine will not abate.

[Montmorency]

1. I don't know anything about Zelezny either. Do you mean https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roger_Zelazny?
2. And this bears on Ukranian election because...

Zemansky Zelensky

the doctrine against "aggressive war" is something Russia has used to its advantage and its erosion reduces that advantage.

Isn't it the other way around?


The idea is interesting, so I'd like to try to reproduce what a case might look like for a gambit almost crazy enough to work.

Ukraine relinquishes all claims to Luhansk/Donetsk (but not Crimea), as well as ceasing hostilities and maintaining only a reduced defensive posture along the border. Luhansk and Donetsk are on their own.

Russia has no more frozen conflict in the East, and therefore loses a potential casus belli. Further, it must decide if it's willing to prop up Luhansk/Donetsk indefinitely with its resources when there is no longer a larger aim - barring total reincorporation of Ukraine into the Federation. (Population of L/DPR more than 10X population of South Ossetia/Abkhazia or 8X population of Transnistria.)

Russia cuts L/DPR loose. If leadership wants to join Russian Federation, either the people vote against or Russia rejects them. After years, tired of being a shithole-tier pseudo-country, L/DPR petitions to rejoin Ukraine. Russia resists because it likes having a buffer between Europe-oriented Ukraine and itself. A compromise is reached for Luhansk and Donetsk to accede as special autonomous and demilitarized zones.

???

Negative gearing


Of course, besides being incredibly risky for Ukrainian integrity, there is still no prospect of restitution for the seizure of Crimea, it likely doesn't help Ukrainian strategic posture if Ukraine does want to join NATO after all (continuing Russian incentive to undermine Ukraine) - and this kind of grand maneuvering is only politically feasible in a videogame anyway.

[Crandar]

The comedian is rumoured to be a puppet of his former employer, Igor Kolomoisky. The elections were not that free though, as the communist candidate was banned.

[Gilrandir]

The comedian is rumoured to be a puppet of his former employer, Igor Kolomoisky.

This is not accurate. Kolomoisky is the current employer of the comedian since the latter has his shows and films aired on the TV channel belonging to Kolomoisky. Yet the comedian has a much more ramified entertainment business which is outside Kolomoisky's auspices.

The elections were not that free though, as the communist candidate was banned.

It is not accurate either. The candidate wasn't banned. Communist and nazi ideologies (and consequently parties) are banned in Ukraine. The candidate, though, could have run as an independent candidate, but he chose not to.

[Crandar]

So, the communist candidate was banned.

[Gilrandir]

So, the communist candidate was banned.

As a candidate representing the banned Communist party - yes. If he just ran as an individual claiming no support from the Communist party he could have taken his chance. But he wouldn't have scored much - I guess no more than 3-4%.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

So, the communist candidate was banned.

Many Western Countries have banned certain political parties. Given its history it doesn't seems overly despotic for Ukraine to ban the Communist Party.