News from Arabia

[Populus Romanus]

King Abdullah of Suadi Arabia dead:
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-30945324

Yemen's government falls to Houthi rebels backed by Iran:
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories...01-22-12-54-05

I smell fresh Syrian air...

[Crandar]

Yemen is a devastated state that faces serious problems regarding the lack of drinkable water. However, th Houthi's success makes me slightly more optimist about the future of the country.

[Greyblades]

I am conflicted about the first. On the one hand the death of a patriarch of a highly extended family would indicate that any successor will be both a step down in comepetence and will have to fight to inherit his throne; best case scenario: the succession becomes violent enough to trigger a rebellion that would destablise the biggest supporter of the new century's crop of terrorist organisations, if not convert the nation to a democratic form of government.

On the other hand, saudi arabia for all it's faults is the least openly antagonistic nation in the area to the west, save for israel of course, and chances are abdullah's kids will figure something out that doesnt end up kicking them off the throne, and there's no guarentee they would be as accomidating to our interests as thier father. There's even the possibility they will be outright hostile.

Either way, I cant see this being a good thing for the average saudi in the short term, abdullah kept his nation stable and safe as his neighbours were ripped apart, the chances of the next leader being as competent as he was would be slim in a democracy let alone the notoriously unreliable succession method that is a hereditary monarchy. Whatever happens in the next 5-10 years will doubtlessly be a step down compared to the previous decade.



I now await the complete dismantling of my assessment that will inevitably come when a member more familiar with saudi arabia comes online. 5 pence says it's hooahguy.

[Gilrandir]

I am conflicted about the first. On the one hand the death of a patriarch of a highly extended family would indicate that any successor will be both a step down in comepetence and will have to fight to inherit his throne; best case scenario: the succession becomes violent enough to trigger a rebellion that would destablise the biggest supporter of the new century's crop of terrorist organisations, if not convert the nation to a democratic form of government.

On the other hand, saudi arabia for all it's faults is the least openly antagonistic nation in the area to the west, save for israel of course, and chances are abdullah's kids will figure something out that doesnt end up kicking them off the throne, and there's no guarentee they would be as accomidating to our interests as thier father. There's even the possibility they will be outright hostile.

Either way, I cant see this being a good thing for the average saudi in the short term, abdullah kept his nation stable and safe as his neighbours were ripped apart, the chances of the next leader being as competent as he was would be slim in a democracy let alone the notoriously unreliable succession method that is a hereditary monarchy. Whatever happens in the next 5-10 years will doubtlessly be a step down compared to the previous decade.



I now await the complete dismantling of my assessment that will inevitably come when a member more familiar with saudi arabia comes online. 5 pence says it's hooahguy.

Can't claim a deep awareness of what was and is going on in Saudi Arabia, yet logics tells me that when a modern ruling monarch approaches the advanced age of 90 he tends to hand his duties to someone else (presumably "deep in the counsels" of the king) from within the family. So I think that the deceased king has stopped to be an active player (perhaps even the real ruler of the state) for quite a time. So I don't expect any jerky movements that will influence the policies of the said state, at least not in the nearest future.

[Husar]

Aren't the Emirates also quite open to the West and at the same time also quite a bit less restrictive on the people who live there?
Not that any of them are beacons of liberal openness, but at least women can drive there and westerners and easterners can work there far more openly than in Saudi Arabia.
I'd hope the new guy is a liberal reformer like Kim Jong Un, but he seems a bit old for that unfortunately. Heard he has dementia though, so maybe he'll go crazy and drop all restrictions while noone can stop him.

[Greyblades]

I'd hope the new guy is a liberal reformer like Kim Jong Un.

hah!

[lars573]

I am conflicted about the first. On the one hand the death of a patriarch of a highly extended family would indicate that any successor will be both a step down in comepetence and will have to fight to inherit his throne; best case scenario: the succession becomes violent enough to trigger a rebellion that would destablise the biggest supporter of the new century's crop of terrorist organisations, if not convert the nation to a democratic form of government.

Any kind of Democracy in Saudi Arabia is the last thing anyone wants. You do know who would be elected in any kind of vote? People of the same ideology as the IS and Al-Qaeda.

[Viking]

I was surprised to hear that the king didn't die from beheading. I thought that was the way everyone died in Saudi Arabia.

[a completely inoffensive name]

Any kind of Democracy in Saudi Arabia is the last thing anyone wants. You do know who would be elected in any kind of vote? People of the same ideology as the IS and Al-Qaeda.

As long as we are honest about our hollow values.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

As long as we are honest about our hollow values.

King Hussain of Jordan tried a bit of democracy - the people turned out to be idiots.

[Ice]

As long as we are honest about our hollow values.

I'm fine with that. I'll be completely up front and honest about it, too. See Egypt for an example of well democracy worked after years of authoritarian rule.

[Hooahguy]

I now await the complete dismantling of my assessment that will inevitably come when a member more familiar with saudi arabia comes online. 5 pence says it's hooahguy.

Aww, how thoughtful!

Anyways, I wouldnt say the Saudi throne is in too much danger from outside forces. The royal family is large and in no shortage of people who can pick up the throne. But anyone familiar with feudal systems (or Crusader Kings 2 for that matter) knows that this kinda breeds jealousy and stuff from the other contenders. Now then, the elderly King Salman, isnt in great health. Im expecting his reign to be short. Even so, I would expect that the family has contingency plans so I dont expect any big coups any time soon. Though I would like a change how Saudi Arabia is run, as they do fund terror so thats obviously a bad thing. Same goes for most of the Arab states in the Arabian peninsula who the West loves to cozy up with. Also the whole "let's flog bloggers" thing I really dont like. So yeah, interesting times ahead for Saudi Arabia.

[Hax]

The entire Saudi elite are all way above minimal pension age anyway, so they're gonna die off in rapid succession.

Though I would like a change how Saudi Arabia is run, as they do fund terror so thats obviously a bad thing

Well ehm, the Saudi royal family and the Islamic clergy in Saudi-Arabia are quite tightly-knit and are in a symbiotic relationship with midichlorians eachother. The state can't really just really sever that connection as it would seriously affect their legitimacy (to stay in Paradox terminology).

[Gilrandir]

The entire Saudi elite are all way above minimal pension age anyway, so they're gonna die off in rapid succession.

This very thing happened to the USSR in 1982-85 and we all know how it ended. So it's likely that soon we will see Gorb ibn Saud on the throne.