Age of Kings Mafia

[Visor]

No wait, you don't have to do that. I can wait till the next game. Sorry if I came across as overly disappointed/angry/sad, it's an easy mistake to make.

Nah, a vanilla game will be probably be better balanced anyway. Sending out role PMs now.

[Visor]

Age of Kings - Dark Age - Day 1

Error 37: Crash to desktop. Restarting......

Players:
1. El Barto
2. choxorn
3. Kennigit
4. Zack
5. edse
6. Darth feather
7. Sprig
8. Askthepizzaguy
9. Kagemusha
10. Riedquat


Day will end at 10:00 AM Australian Eastern Standard, GMT +10, March 13th.

[Visor]

I think the timer is correct now. If it isn't, can someone please tell me.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Vote: kumquat

[Kagemusha]

Vote: Atpg. Voting you brings back lot of good memories. Long time no see old friend.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Time to pull a Crazed Rabbit:

I am not the Mafia. I am not the mafia. I am not mafia. I am not Mafia. I am not guilty. I am not Guilty. I am town. I am Town.

And now, to pull a Pizzaguy:

The preceding message is false. The previous statement is true. The previous statement is false. The previous statement is false if the next statement is true. This statement is false.

[Darth Feather]

Time to pull a Crazed Rabbit:

I am not the Mafia. I am not the mafia. I am not mafia. I am not Mafia. I am not guilty. I am not Guilty. I am town. I am Town.

And now, to pull a Pizzaguy:

The preceding message is false. The previous statement is true. The previous statement is false. The previous statement is false if the next statement is true. This statement is false.

BWAM brain exploded.

Vote: Sprig. Guilty of the crime of being number 7.

[Riedquat]

Vote: kumquat

I thought you were above this silliness...

Vote: Takhibarto

[Zack]

Oh boy. Serial killer again?

[Sprig]

oh yeah lucky number 7.

Vote: Choxorn for reasons unrelated to a ring of power.

[edse]

For Sprig I vote.

[edse]

And Pizza is not mafia.

[Zack]

And Pizza is not mafia.

Perfect Information Syndrome.

Vote: edse

[Kagemusha]

Unvote,Vote: edse

[Askthepizzaguy]

And Pizza is not mafia.

Edse,

Are you merely taking a position on the matter, or do you feel it in your bones with utter certainty?

Note: I don't mean do you know it as fact, but rather if you are feeling the kind of certainty one tends to feel in these games, in the absence of perfect information.

[Zack]

If you feel it in your bones, I suggest drinking more milk.

[edse]

I only used logic. Pizza's proposition boils down to "not FALSE", that is "TRUE" :P

[edse]

Perfect Information Syndrome.

Vote: edse

Now, you accuse me of perfect information, does that mean that you know Pizza isn't mafia? I have never understood that part about PIS (and people accuse me of PIS all the time).

[Askthepizzaguy]

Assuming two scummos. Given the short time frame, and the fact that it is also a short game, we're basically in endgame already, I wonder if I should take a stab at solving it now, with several missing votes. Let's pretend I could solve the game based on the activity thusfar, since I am bored.

Assumption: Have both mafia shown up already, or just one? What are the odds neither has shown up? (Most have shown up, so, lean both have shown up.) Also, for the purposes of this exercise, I have to assume they're already here. I can't do a lot with Takh, Ken, or chox yet.

Assumption: Do the mafia vote for themselves yet? (Lean no, because it doesn't buy a lot of town goodwill to lynch a scum this early and then keep surviving to final 3. Also, history shows this option gets selected less)

Assumption: Either Sprig or edse, as guilty, either being voted by two townies already, due to previous assumption. (Lean nope.)

Edse and Kagemusha are attempting to lynch people, not hide. Assumption: Are they even on target, though? See previous. (No)

Assume active mafia- If lazy assumption none of choxxybabee, Kenny G, and Bort license plate were guilty,
Assume aggro mafia- If guilty parties are voting innocent parties, rather than not voting yet or voting for their partner,
Assume edse/sprig scapegoat- If edse and sprig were both innocent,

Zack looks guiltish, Kage looks guiltish, Kumquat looks guiltish, Darth Feather looks guiltish. 4 suspects out of 9 other players.

Toss Sprig, edse, and the three absentees in the temporary reprieve pile, because reasons. That's five you don't lynch Day One.

If Sprig innocent, and edse were innocent, then votes on edse are not because mafia want to vote for person voting his partner. Which doesn't really happen exceedingly frequently anyway.

IMO, I feel they will vote innocent, vote in opposition, not together, and not interact with each other yet. And also be at least somewhat active. I don't think they vote partner yet. I think I can be wrong about one of these assumptions, but not several, and we can still win the game if so.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Pondering: Zack/Kage team
Activity: 5
Interaction: 0
Vote opposition: 2
Vote coordination: 1
Vote partner: 0
Tactical: 3

Pondering: Zack/Feather team
Activity: 4
Interaction: 0
Vote opposition: 1
Vote coordination: 0
Vote partner: 0
Tactical: 1

Pondering: Zack/Quat team
Activity: 4
Interaction: 0
Vote opposition: 1
Vote coordination: 0
Vote partner: 0
Tactical: 1

Pondering: Kage/Feather team
Activity: 3
Interaction: 0
Vote opposition: 2
Vote coordination: 0
Vote partner: 0
Tactical: 2

Pondering: Kage/Quat team
Activity: 3
Interaction: 0
Vote opposition: 2
Vote coordination: 0
Vote partner: 0
Tactical: 2

Pondering: Feather/Quat team
Activity: 2
Interaction: 0
Vote opposition: 1
Vote coordination: 0
Vote partner: 0
Tactical: 0

Notables-

Tactically, Zack/Kage have made vote movements after their target has voted for someone who isn't either of them. This is advantageous for mafiosi. However, they are behaving in a nakedly coordinated way. It doesn't discount them entirely but it causes me to think twice. Still, that's quite aggressive. I feel they're both off-target, which would be 3 wrong votes already. I think it likely at least one mafioso is there. There's something off about it, though, I get the feeling one of them is innocent, and I can't tell which. I feel pretty scummy about both of them, but not together. Zack I think has a better chance of convincing me to change my mind about him through his votes and actions. He hasn't yet.

There's nothing to discount Zack/Feather as a team. Nothing screams obvious, but none of those votes feels good yet. In fact, of all the potential teams, I think this one is in the top two most likely to be correct. There's also nothing they've done which looks all that different from typical village behavior, which makes this team a difficult one to condemn with a lynch. The only thing going against them is that there's no reason I can find that they're not mafia, and not mafia together. That's hardly staggering, but if I had to place wagers. I like the Zack/Feather team as my top 2.

Zack/Quat team is also reasonable. I almost want to say that Quat's sole post is a lie, I doubt he really thinks I'm above any kind of silliness. However, it may simply be a rhetorical way of spelling out he's tired of being voted for in that manner, because kumquat is a funny word, and people like to type it as their vote, myself included. I can't tell which it is, and I don't think it provides any clue to his alignment. I've noted that no one else has voted for him except me. But that also is no tell, because I made a day one joke vote and we tend to spread the votes around, not dogpile a joke vote. I can't get a read on Quat, despite my vote there. I will likely move it but not because I have concluded innocence, but because others feel more likely to have given away their guilt.

Kage/Feather team is an option. More observation needed, I think it likely one of these is guilty, but I am not feeling a strong vibe about this team configuration.

Kage/Quat as a team makes sense, both Kage and Quat reacted to my vote of Quat in their own way. Flinchy, if so. Are they really so flinchy as a mafia team that both of them flinch over one vote? I feel Kage's vote of Edse is more telling, because it would be bad for a villager to declare another villager innocent, who was voting for one's partner. If so, Kage is flinching all over the place. Which, legendary mafia player or no, he has been known to do from time to time... If Kage is guilty, I think Quat is his partner, over Zack, and especially over Feather.

Feather/Quat as a team did not react to ATPG vote on Quat, both voted after ATPG. Tactical advantage not taken, feels villagery as a unit, less active and dissembling than I feel mafia typically are. Usually at least one partner goes for activity, and even if not, they take advantage of the tactical situation and strive for longevity. Here, they can prompt an additional 2 votes in their direction in an OMGUS situation. In general, leaning against Featherquat as a team, though one may still be guilty. I feel more strongly than any other noted pairing that one of these is innocent.

Too long, didn't read

Unvote Kumquat

Vote Kagemusha

You feel like you are a predator fish, snapping at exposed fins. Defend yourself, able warrior.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I only used logic. Pizza's proposition boils down to "not FALSE", that is "TRUE" :P

I am still curious for you to answer my question, though I should note it's not because I am suspicious of you. I just want to know where you're at.

Am I to understand you're simply giving your solution to my riddle?

[edse]

That is correct. Kennigit can probably confirm that it is the correct solution.

[Zack]

Now, you accuse me of perfect information, does that mean that you know Pizza isn't mafia? I have never understood that part about PIS (and people accuse me of PIS all the time).

You firmly declared ATPG wasn't mafia, something which only a mafia could know for certain, i.e. Perfect Information Syndrome (displaying knowledge that a townie shouldn't have). I wasn't being serious when I accused you of it, by the way, as your post was clearly in jest (at least in part).

What annoys me is that ATPG declared you townie because of it, which is nothing more than self-serving. And also Sprig for whatever reason, without explaining why in either case.

[El Barto]

Given that I am not mafia, I must vote: Riedquat.

Aaaalso, atpg's analysis-cum-balance-sheet reminds me of Problem Sleuth.

[Sprig]

Given that I am not mafia, I must vote: Riedquat.

Aaaalso, atpg's analysis-cum-balance-sheet reminds me of Problem Sleuth.

Hey Buddy :D

[El Barto]

Supurigu-nii-chan! My almost-mafia-partner! Do you have any alternatives to voting for Riedquat? He's voting for me and, for that reason, OMG, he sucks!

[Zack]

Hey Buddy :D

Supurigu-nii-chan! My almost-mafia-partner! Do you have any alternatives to voting for Riedquat? He's voting for me and, for that reason, OMG, he sucks!

Unvote, Vote: Sprig

Why's everyone so chummy with you?

[Choxorn]

Vote: Zack

Why's everyone so not chummy with you?

[El Barto]

All you want's a friend, Zack.

[Zack]

Vote: Zack

Why's everyone so not chummy with you?

I hate chum. More of a krabby patty guy.

[Askthepizzaguy]

What annoys me is that ATPG declared you townie because of it, which is nothing more than self-serving. And also Sprig for whatever reason, without explaining why in either case.

The novels explain stuff that was left out of the movie. It's just established canon at this point.