POTUS Election thread

[Hooahguy]

So Trump crushed in New Hampshire as did Bernie. A bit surprised about Trump, not at all about Sanders. The real test for Sanders will be Super Tuesday.

[a completely inoffensive name]

Can't stump the trump. I'm going to be laughing about Jeb all night till my shift end.

[Fragony]

This is getting really interesting. American elections are always worth your time following them.

(go team Trump, Hillary eats baby's she scares me)

[Gilrandir]

go team Trump, Hillary eats baby's she scares me

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8lGH_DvtBEM

[Fragony]

http://bp0.blogger.com/_qI3s3Re9mP0/...n_invasion.jpg

;)

[Seamus Fermanagh]

So far, it is about dis-satisfaction. In a normal year, this is 40-odd percent of our votes. This year it is over 70%.

Major slices of both parties are pissed at the normal way of doing business. For the GOP, you flip off the current system by voting for the Donald. NOTE: 70% of GOP votes who decide more than 3 weeks before the primary/caucus who they will vote for vote for Trump. Those who are weighing and evaluating in the last two weeks vote for the more orthodox candidates. Donald is THE champion of the "I'm taking my marbles and going home if I cannot have it my way" crowd.


For the Dems, Sanders represents the logical manifestation of the ideology they want in their heart-of-hearts. By Brit standards, he'd probably be considered a garden-variety Labour party type. To us, he is a hard-left wing semi-socialist. Single Payer health care, active wealth redistribution through the tax system, a heavy emphasis on organizations being for the benefit of employees more than stockholders, etc. Clinton has the better machine and the stronger connections to the African-descent and Non-Cuban Latino voter blocs, so it is likely she who will end up with the nomination -- but it is Bernie they love.


One interesting outcome here is the potential for Trump to secure the nomination and in so doing, win OR lose the general, engender the break up of the GOP that's been looming for most of a decade now. It will be interesting to see.

[a completely inoffensive name]

I want Trump vs Hillary because Trump will stump her like no one else.

[Hooahguy]

Thats highly debatable. Sure, he would get the anti-establishment vote, but many more would turn out just to prevent Trump from getting in the White House. Besides, Hillary winning would be good for the GOP, as they can keep attacking her and keep that anger towards the left going and then possibly win in 2020. But if Trump is in the White House, he is unpredictable and theres no way to really tell what his impact would be. Plus I doubt the GOP establishment would really get behind Trump if it meant potentially torpedoing their chances in 2020.

[Hooahguy]

Major loss for Sanders tonight in South Carolina. Doesnt bode well for the Sanders campaign with Super Tuesday coming up fast.

[a completely inoffensive name]

but many more would turn out just to prevent Trump from getting in the White House.

Completely false. GOP primaries have had record breaking turnouts while the Democratic primaries have reached record lows in turnout. Nobody is excited for Hillary, nobody is going to vote to stop Trump. They will just not show up.

And when the Bern train finally gets derailed at the convention, you can bet that all those young liberals demonizing Hillary as a corporatist will avoid the polls like a plague.

[Hooahguy]

Yeah I dont know who you have been talking to but most of those young liberals demonizing Hillary are actually libertarian refugees who are just anti-establishment. Such as my roommate. Who used to support Rand Paul and now is a Bernie supporter. Looking at the /r/politics sub on Reddit is not indicative of most liberals. Most actual liberals wouldnt cut off the nose just to spite the face. And the turnout for the democrats is hardly record lows. Maybe compared to 2008, but certainly not record lows. For example, turnout this year in South Carolina was much higher compared to 2004. Plus I know of a number of Republicans who would vote for Hillary over Trump. Such as my parents and some of my friends. And when you have the Senate Majority Leader saying that the GOP wont get behind Trump if he wins the nomination, its clear that they would rather torpedo Trump and have a better shot at winning 2020 (once the anti-establishment candidates have been discredited) than have Trump in the White House who could be a major disaster for the GOP.

[Sarmatian]

Why is Clinton doing so much better than Sanders with blacks and hispanics? I do not see anything that would make her appeal more to them. As secretary of state, she couldn't have done much to help them in practical terms.

Everybody take that as a given, so what am I not seeing?

[a completely inoffensive name]

Yeah I dont know who you have been talking to but most of those young liberals demonizing Hillary are actually libertarian refugees who are just anti-establishment. Such as my roommate. Who used to support Rand Paul and now is a Bernie supporter. Looking at the /r/politics sub on Reddit is not indicative of most liberals. Most actual liberals wouldnt cut off the nose just to spite the face. And the turnout for the democrats is hardly record lows. Maybe compared to 2008, but certainly not record lows. For example, turnout this year in South Carolina was much higher compared to 2004. Plus I know of a number of Republicans who would vote for Hillary over Trump. Such as my parents and some of my friends. And when you have the Senate Majority Leader saying that the GOP wont get behind Trump if he wins the nomination, its clear that they would rather torpedo Trump and have a better shot at winning 2020 (once the anti-establishment candidates have been discredited) than have Trump in the White House who could be a major disaster for the GOP.

Young people don't vote for a reason. If they are given a choice between two evils, they don't bother choosing.

Any conservative talking about choosing Hillary over Trump is venting their frustration. She has been the conservative anti-christ since the 1990s, when it comes time to make a choice, they are going to fall back on party loyalty, or they won't vote at all.

Mitch McConnell thinks the GOP can just ride out this election just because his seat is not threatened. The GOP leadership is feckless and have handled Donald Trump in the worst possible way for months now.
Their plan since 2008 has been to remove Obama and try to reverse his policies, if they concede this election then they abandon everything they have working for over the last 8 years. The liberals get their victories cemented in stone, and we get to experience a SCOTUS where up to 3 judges are nominated by President Trump. Do you not see how utterly terrible this idea is?

[a completely inoffensive name]

Trump stumped the establishment so bad today, Graham said the only choice may be too rally behind Ted "basket case" Cruz.

[Viking]

Interestingly, the last (?) poll in Minnesota (from mid-January) predicted this result:

Sanders 25%
Clinton 59%

Actual results were

Sanders 62%
Clinton 38%

Wonder if there are more like this one around.

(a lot of states appear to be missing polls altogether; or HP's overview hasn't included them)

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Sanders is the plucky true-heart dem they would all want to be in their heart of hearts -- a true Social Democrat.

However, he has wins in: VT, NH, MN, CO, and OK to his name so far, and a tie in IA.

Vermont has elected and re-elected a self labeled socialist to the Senate; New Hampshire are Bernie's neighbors who have been hearing him on TV almost as long as has Vermont; Minnesota elected a professional wrestler to the governorship and a comedian to the Senate; Colorado is one of 4 states with legalized marijauna for recreational use; Oklahoma is a more "standard" state by US standards.....but hasn't voted for a Democrat President since LBJ (over Goldwater) when I was 9 months old.

Bernie is getting all the true hearts and all the eclectic states....he doesn't have the broader support he will need for a nomination. Heck, he even lost Massachusetts, which should have been in his wheelhouse (He DID win western Mass, but lost Boston to Clinton's machine).

[Strike For The South]

I'm still half convinced Trump is a Hillary plant.

If the was any justice in the world, or less likely, our DOJ had the cojones; she would spend the rest of her life behind bars. Instead we get immunity handed out like Candy to former Staffers.

I voted for Kasich in the primaries because he is the closest to my actual views. However, burning the whole system down is my second choice and that means supporting Trump in the general. I won't support Bernie and I think Hillary is a felon, so that kind of rules the democrats out.

I watch the media and continue to be Jacks complete lack of surprise as they still can't understand Trump or the anger that drives people to vote for him. It's exactly that kind of smug condescension that will get him elected. At which point I hope S.E. Cupps high class head explodes.

[Sarmatian]

I voted for Kasich

I always knew that deep down, all you Americans want to be ruled by Slavs.

[Shaka_Khan]

I'm still half convinced Trump is a Hillary plant.

If the was any justice in the world, or less likely, our DOJ had the cojones; she would spend the rest of her life behind bars. Instead we get immunity handed out like Candy to former Staffers.

I get the same half feeling about Trump the more I see how the Republicans are doing. The Republican candidates are being trolled into a mess. Look what happened to Jeb. Actually, Trump's verbal attacks remind me of the actings done by the WWE wrestlers. (I've read Trump's book before he announced his presidential campaign. Believe it or not, his book mentioned how he enjoyed the WWE and his participation of it). On the other hand, I've read about an issue about his father that creeps me out.

[Hooahguy]

Where are you reading that? I'm reading Clinton won 60 delegates to Bernie's 49.
Edit: forgot about Maine, my bad. But wouldn't it still be Bernie at 64 and Hillary at 67? If my math is right anyways and I'm not forgetting something.

[Viking]

I'm using the numbers provided here: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2...d-results.html

I haven't done much cross-checking. It does though look like 5 delegates haven't been awarded yet for Maine (total is 25 according to Wikipedia), so the final numbers may change (but Sanders should still have gotten a majority for this weekend).

[Hooahguy]

I got my results from Politico. Strange how the reporting isnt consistent this late afterwards.

[Viking]

That overview appears to include superdelegates in the state statistics. Note how it says that Sanders and Clinton both got 15 candidates from New Hampshire, even though Sanders got 60% of the vote.

[Beskar]

You cannot even make these things up...

[Hooahguy]

That overview appears to include superdelegates in the state statistics. Note how it says that Sanders and Clinton both got 15 candidates from New Hampshire, even though Sanders got 60% of the vote.

Ah, ok I did not realize that, thank you for pointing that out. I stand corrected.

[Hooahguy]

Certainly a very surprising win for Sanders in Michigan. But it was just a morale booster as Clinton still came away with more delegates in the end due to the blowout in Mississippi . I read that the huge discrepancy in polling and results might have come by over sampling democratic voters, not including independents who can vote due to it being an open primary. But Bernie needs to win New York and California to get the nomination and since those primaries are closed (last I remember anyways) I don't see him having much of a chance. But the victory in Michigan will further extend this race and prevent Hillary from pivoting to focus on the general election.

If anything yesterday proved that it was more about demographics than polling results.

[Husar]

Obama talking about the Republican candidates:

https://www.facebook.com/IamFreddieB...3443510543861/

[Beskar]

Obama talking about the Republican candidates:

https://www.facebook.com/IamFreddieB...3443510543861/

Going to miss him, he did good despite being roadblocked at every single corner by Republicans.

[Sarmatian]

Obama was a good president, both for the US and the rest of the world.

He maybe shouldn't have compromised as much as he did, but, as some time passes, he will be recognized as one of the better ones.

[Viking]

I read that the huge discrepancy in polling and results might have come by over sampling democratic voters, not including independents who can vote due to it being an open primary.

Here's a slightly different take, showing how several different factors together could have conspired to the misleading polling results.