The problem with your analysis is that the top three candidates are all outsiders. If you add up Trump, Carson and Fiorini, you get about 50% of voters. Half of the party is essentially rejecting the establishment and many more are still undecided/not participating. The holy establishment Trinity of rubio, bush and walker was shown today to be dead on arrival. I don't care if there are still 15 candidates, no one likes pataki, no one likes Cruz, no one likes santorum. And no amount of name recognition will bring these campaigns back from the dead. There is a whole lot to learn here and bush better hope his advisors are worth the money.