POTUS Election thread

[Viking]

Looks like it'll be even in Nevada. 50-49 for Sanders as 14% of results are in.

https://nvcaucuses.com/

[Sarmatian]

Will people feel bad for Hillary if she loses a race everyone expected her to win twice in a row now?

[GeneralHankerchief]

Will people feel bad for Hillary if she loses a race everyone expected her to win twice in a row now?

I expect the percentage of people who will feel bad for her should this scenario happen will align exactly with the percentage of people who voted for her.

[Sarmatian]

I expect the percentage of people who will feel bad for her should this scenario happen will align exactly with the percentage of people who voted for her.

That's true, but I thought personally of people who weren't invested, maybe not even Americans. As someone who looks at it from the distance.

And she's gonna lose.

[GeneralHankerchief]

I think she's still got the inside track, she's still up in Nevada right now and South Carolina looks to be solidly in her pocket as well. Too much infrastructure, too much familiarity with voters outside of Sanders's base, and I strongly believe the GOP is going to be too weakened from their clown car of a nomination process to mount a serious challenge unless they get their act together essentially right now.

[Husar]

I don't think she's gonna lose, looks like she won Nevada, and not even very close. As of now this shows 18 to 14 for Clinton:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...ate_count.html

Also note she got 449 superdelegates and Sanders got 19....

[Sarmatian]

I think she's still got the inside track, she's still up in Nevada right now and South Carolina looks to be solidly in her pocket as well. Too much infrastructure, too much familiarity with voters outside of Sanders's base, and I strongly believe the GOP is going to be too weakened from their clown car of a nomination process to mount a serious challenge unless they get their act together essentially right now.

I know. She's in a better position. On the other hand, just a few weeks ago, everyone predicted a landslide win for her in Nevada and it looks like it's gonna be a few points.

She lacks a message, something that people can get behind. She presented herself as a safe choice, like she didn't realize that we'll be understood as more of the same. Can be argued that it really means more of the same.

I don't think she's gonna lose, looks like she won Nevada, and not even very close. As of now this shows 18 to 14 for Clinton:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...ate_count.html

Also note she got 449 superdelegates and Sanders got 19....

It's close enough.

And from what I understood about superdelegates, they can change their mind at any time, unlike regular delegates.

And they wouldn't go against the wish of the voters anyway. They all pledged themselves to her in 2008 and switched to Obama later.

[Greyblades]

You know i take some solace that no matter who wins the final weeks of election will be amazing to watch.

[a completely inoffensive name]

Can't stump the trump. I'm going to be laughing about Jeb all night till my shift end.

[Fragony]

This is getting really interesting. American elections are always worth your time following them.

(go team Trump, Hillary eats baby's she scares me)

[Gilrandir]

go team Trump, Hillary eats baby's she scares me

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8lGH_DvtBEM

[Fragony]

http://bp0.blogger.com/_qI3s3Re9mP0/...n_invasion.jpg

;)

[Seamus Fermanagh]

So far, it is about dis-satisfaction. In a normal year, this is 40-odd percent of our votes. This year it is over 70%.

Major slices of both parties are pissed at the normal way of doing business. For the GOP, you flip off the current system by voting for the Donald. NOTE: 70% of GOP votes who decide more than 3 weeks before the primary/caucus who they will vote for vote for Trump. Those who are weighing and evaluating in the last two weeks vote for the more orthodox candidates. Donald is THE champion of the "I'm taking my marbles and going home if I cannot have it my way" crowd.


For the Dems, Sanders represents the logical manifestation of the ideology they want in their heart-of-hearts. By Brit standards, he'd probably be considered a garden-variety Labour party type. To us, he is a hard-left wing semi-socialist. Single Payer health care, active wealth redistribution through the tax system, a heavy emphasis on organizations being for the benefit of employees more than stockholders, etc. Clinton has the better machine and the stronger connections to the African-descent and Non-Cuban Latino voter blocs, so it is likely she who will end up with the nomination -- but it is Bernie they love.


One interesting outcome here is the potential for Trump to secure the nomination and in so doing, win OR lose the general, engender the break up of the GOP that's been looming for most of a decade now. It will be interesting to see.

[Greyblades]

I'm skeptical about these claims that one candidate or another will cause a schism in either party. America is way too polarized for that. The closest i can see happening is an independent leeching votes from one party, but that doesnt mean that the party wont reform once the candidate loses.

[HopAlongBunny]

From the outside, Trump exposes the vacuum that the GOP has become ie: isolated from outside influences and empty.
It is a measure of discontent that he could become the candidate.
Entertainment_wise, I'm pulling for a Bernie vs The Donald: Cage match extravaganza!

[Greyblades]

From the outside, Trump exposes the vacuum that the GOP has become ie: isolated from outside influences and empty.
It is a measure of discontent that he could become the candidate.
Entertainment_wise, I'm pulling for a Bernie vs The Donald: Cage match extravaganza!

TBH I'd also say the same of bernie and the democrats.

[Husar]

TBH I'd also say the same of bernie and the democrats.

Bernie is the most substantial candidate ever!

[Greyblades]

Considering american voting history, do you think they would really vote in bernie if they weren't discontent with the dems?

[Hooahguy]

Christie has endorsed Trump. Genius move by Trump to do it now, takes the thunder from Rubio's hit during the last debate and turns the news cycle in Trump's favor.

[a completely inoffensive name]

I want Trump vs Hillary because Trump will stump her like no one else.

[Hooahguy]

Thats highly debatable. Sure, he would get the anti-establishment vote, but many more would turn out just to prevent Trump from getting in the White House. Besides, Hillary winning would be good for the GOP, as they can keep attacking her and keep that anger towards the left going and then possibly win in 2020. But if Trump is in the White House, he is unpredictable and theres no way to really tell what his impact would be. Plus I doubt the GOP establishment would really get behind Trump if it meant potentially torpedoing their chances in 2020.

[Hooahguy]

Major loss for Sanders tonight in South Carolina. Doesnt bode well for the Sanders campaign with Super Tuesday coming up fast.

[a completely inoffensive name]

but many more would turn out just to prevent Trump from getting in the White House.

Completely false. GOP primaries have had record breaking turnouts while the Democratic primaries have reached record lows in turnout. Nobody is excited for Hillary, nobody is going to vote to stop Trump. They will just not show up.

And when the Bern train finally gets derailed at the convention, you can bet that all those young liberals demonizing Hillary as a corporatist will avoid the polls like a plague.

[Hooahguy]

Yeah I dont know who you have been talking to but most of those young liberals demonizing Hillary are actually libertarian refugees who are just anti-establishment. Such as my roommate. Who used to support Rand Paul and now is a Bernie supporter. Looking at the /r/politics sub on Reddit is not indicative of most liberals. Most actual liberals wouldnt cut off the nose just to spite the face. And the turnout for the democrats is hardly record lows. Maybe compared to 2008, but certainly not record lows. For example, turnout this year in South Carolina was much higher compared to 2004. Plus I know of a number of Republicans who would vote for Hillary over Trump. Such as my parents and some of my friends. And when you have the Senate Majority Leader saying that the GOP wont get behind Trump if he wins the nomination, its clear that they would rather torpedo Trump and have a better shot at winning 2020 (once the anti-establishment candidates have been discredited) than have Trump in the White House who could be a major disaster for the GOP.

[Sarmatian]

Why is Clinton doing so much better than Sanders with blacks and hispanics? I do not see anything that would make her appeal more to them. As secretary of state, she couldn't have done much to help them in practical terms.

Everybody take that as a given, so what am I not seeing?

[Husar]

Why is Clinton doing so much better than Sanders with blacks and hispanics? I do not see anything that would make her appeal more to them. As secretary of state, she couldn't have done much to help them in practical terms.

Everybody take that as a given, so what am I not seeing?

I think they all love her husband and that she pretty much represents a continuation of Obama's path

[Hooahguy]

Because her rapport with those communities goes back a very long time, way, way before she was Secretary of State.

A good article on some of the more general reasons why she is so popular.

And judging by how Ive seen many Sanders supporters talk about the Black community, it is very condescending, as if these Sanders supporters knew what was best for the Black community who apparently cannot make their own decisions. I read this morning on the political discussion subreddit that a user claimed that in the days leading up to the primary, a Sanders campaign worker called, and when the user replied that he was going to vote for Hillary, the Sanders campaign worker at first didnt know what to say and then he claims that the campaign worker said that "Sanders supports welfare too." Dont know if its true but if so, it shows a stark gap in understanding by his campaign staffers, who from experience tend to be white and often on the younger side. And getting Cornel West and Killer Mike as your outreach to the Black community isnt a help either as those two arent exactly popular or influential.

[a completely inoffensive name]

Yeah I dont know who you have been talking to but most of those young liberals demonizing Hillary are actually libertarian refugees who are just anti-establishment. Such as my roommate. Who used to support Rand Paul and now is a Bernie supporter. Looking at the /r/politics sub on Reddit is not indicative of most liberals. Most actual liberals wouldnt cut off the nose just to spite the face. And the turnout for the democrats is hardly record lows. Maybe compared to 2008, but certainly not record lows. For example, turnout this year in South Carolina was much higher compared to 2004. Plus I know of a number of Republicans who would vote for Hillary over Trump. Such as my parents and some of my friends. And when you have the Senate Majority Leader saying that the GOP wont get behind Trump if he wins the nomination, its clear that they would rather torpedo Trump and have a better shot at winning 2020 (once the anti-establishment candidates have been discredited) than have Trump in the White House who could be a major disaster for the GOP.

Young people don't vote for a reason. If they are given a choice between two evils, they don't bother choosing.

Any conservative talking about choosing Hillary over Trump is venting their frustration. She has been the conservative anti-christ since the 1990s, when it comes time to make a choice, they are going to fall back on party loyalty, or they won't vote at all.

Mitch McConnell thinks the GOP can just ride out this election just because his seat is not threatened. The GOP leadership is feckless and have handled Donald Trump in the worst possible way for months now.
Their plan since 2008 has been to remove Obama and try to reverse his policies, if they concede this election then they abandon everything they have working for over the last 8 years. The liberals get their victories cemented in stone, and we get to experience a SCOTUS where up to 3 judges are nominated by President Trump. Do you not see how utterly terrible this idea is?

[Hooahguy]

Young people don't vote for a reason. If they are given a choice between two evils, they don't bother choosing.

Yes, because young people are generally naive when it comes to how politics works. Also tend to be lazy and not even register beforehand then complain when they wake up on election day and cant vote.

Any conservative talking about choosing Hillary over Trump is venting their frustration. She has been the conservative anti-christ since the 1990s, when it comes time to make a choice, they are going to fall back on party loyalty, or they won't vote at all.

We will see. Hillary in the White House is better for the GOP than Trump. According to some of my more moderate friends, Trump would not only wreck the GOP he would wreck the country. They say that at least with Hillary not only do they have a stronger shot at winning in 2020, they can shore up the base. Possibly. We will see in November.

Mitch McConnell thinks the GOP can just ride out this election just because his seat is not threatened. The GOP leadership is feckless and have handled Donald Trump in the worst possible way for months now.
Their plan since 2008 has been to remove Obama and try to reverse his policies, if they concede this election then they abandon everything they have working for over the last 8 years. The liberals get their victories cemented in stone, and we get to experience a SCOTUS where up to 3 judges are nominated by President Trump. Do you not see how utterly terrible this idea is?

They have certainly messed up with Trump, but if torpedoing him to maintain their seats and possibly have a shot for 2020 they will. Its the GOP.
An accurate cartoon of the situation:

(click to expand)

[a completely inoffensive name]

We will see. Hillary in the White House is better for the GOP than Trump.

Right, the outspoken liberal with the political clout and monetary backing of wall street is better for conservatives than Donald "Build the Wall" Trump. Again, losing an election is not a legitimate strategy towards winning another.

According to some of my more moderate friends, Trump would not only wreck the GOP he would wreck the country. They say that at least with Hillary not only do they have a stronger shot at winning in 2020, they can shore up the base. Possibly. We will see in November.

I would say your conservative friends are about as delusional as Democrats thinking that 4 years of George Bush would shore up the DMC base for 2004.

They have certainly messed up with Trump, but if torpedoing him to maintain their seats and possibly have a shot for 2020 they will. Its the GOP.

Or, you know, they could just work with him. Since he is after all, a moderate conservative. The GOP's strategy is nonsense, it's old guard with ego's too big to let another one into the club.