POTUS Election thread

[Viking]

Sanders is ahead of Clinton in Missouri by one point according to the latest, sizeable poll there.

[Hooahguy]

So Rubio is out, Trump wins Florida, Illinois, and North Carolina. Kasich wins Ohio and Cruz might win Missouri. Meanwhile, Hillary wins handily in Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina. Will probably win Illinois (results not fully in yet) and its close in Missouri with Sanders in the lead.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

On the GOP side, only T. Cruz and D. Trump have a mathematical chance to secure the nomination prior to the convention.

Cruz, so far, has earned 406 of a possible 1398 delegates (29.1%) and would have to earn 831 of the remaining 1079 (77%) to secure the nomination at large.

Trump, so far, has earned 661 of a possible 1398 delegates (47.3%) and would have to earn 676 of the remaining 1079 (62.7%) to secure the nomination at large.


Given that Cruz would have to, essentially, triple his delegate earnings, it is unlikely that he can secure the nomination prior to the convention even if he runs the table and wins all remaining states. The remaining proportional primaries effectively render his outright win impossible even if he were to win every winner-take-all contest remaining.

Trump has a better shot. Much will depend on Rubio supporters and where they migrate with him out of the race. If they go for Kasich or Cruz in large part (regardless of combination) then this will go to the convention. If a large bloc of them shift to Trump, giving him bigger proportional victories and more wins in the winter-take-all category, it is possible that a sense of "inevitability" will suppress non-Trump votes and allow him to squeak out enough delegates for an at large win. However, the more likely result sees Trump earning about 55% of the remaining delegates and falling short by about 80-100 delegates.

Thus, we are likely to see the first "contested" convention in the USA since Adlai Stevenson, on the third convention ballot, secured the chance to lose to Eisenhower in 1952.

Historically, contested convention candidates for the Democrats have fared really poorly against their opponents with about a 30% win rate -- including the era when contested conventions were more the "norm." By contrast, the win/loss rate for Republican candidates following a contested convention has been much closer to the success rate of an at-large republican nominee. This is because, traditionally, the GOP has always been the more organized and unified party -- something that is decidedly NOT in evidence this year after a decade of TEA party internal opposition.

It is likely to be an 'interesting' electoral year (but remember, the Chinese use 'interesting' as a curse).

[Viking]

Kasich outlasts Rubio: check

Much will depend on Rubio supporters and where they migrate with him out of the race. If they go for Kasich or Cruz in large part (regardless of combination) then this will go to the convention.

Especially notable in this context, is Utah on Tuesday. Rubio had a 2% lead there in a poll from February.

[HopAlongBunny]

A Trump, Hillary contest looks like a lock.
More of the same, or a bandwagon for snake-oil

[Viking]

Especially notable in this context, is Utah on Tuesday. Rubio had a 2% lead there in a poll from February.

Latest Utah poll: Cruz up 31%, Kasich up 25%. Trump down 7%.

[naut]

Latest Utah poll: Cruz up 31%, Kasich up 25%. Trump down 7%.

If there's one state that's gonna be put off by a candidate talking about their penis, it's Utah

The poll revealed that Utah voters would completely reject Trump. Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump 38%-36% while Bernie Sanders leads Trump 48%-37%.

The poll in Utah highlights the degree to which many Republicans won’t vote at all if Trump is the nominee. Republicans aren’t going rally around Trump. Donald Trump also isn’t bringing millions of new people into the Republican camp.

[a completely inoffensive name]

Utah has how many electors? 6?