POTUS Election thread

**Viking** · 03-21-2016, 12:13

Oh, you're referring to the presidential election. Thing is, with a brokered convention; Trump might not even get that far (as a Republican candidate, anyway).

**a completely inoffensive name** · 03-21-2016, 12:42

There is a good probability he won't get the nomination. But if he does, it's not a blow out like everyone says.

If he loses Utah, he will pick up other states worth a lot more by playing his card right.

**Husar** · 03-21-2016, 14:48

https://scontent-fra3-1.xx.fbcdn.net...7a&oe=578B5D6C

**Greyblades** · 03-21-2016, 17:21

I find it hard to believe that trump wining the republican primary is still in question.

**Seamus Fermanagh** · 03-21-2016, 18:04

'blades:

Trump will arrive at the convention with the most delegates for a virtual certainty. However, there is a distinct possibility that he will be just short of the number required for nomination on the first ballot. If that first ballot fails to select a nominee, the large majority of delegates to the convention are then free to vote in favor of whomever they choose as nominee. It is not impossible for a person to be nominated even though they have not been campaigning for the Presidency at all. Current political pundits seem to think Paul Ryan would emerge as that "dark horse" and he would be persuaded to accept the nomination in much the same manner as he was persuaded to accept the Speakership.

**Husar** · 03-21-2016, 18:11

Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh

'blades:

Trump will arrive at the convention with the most delegates for a virtual certainty. However, there is a distinct possibility that he will be just short of the number required for nomination on the first ballot. If that first ballot fails to select a nominee, the large majority of delegates to the convention are then free to vote in favor of whomever they choose as nominee. It is not impossible for a person to be nominated even though they have not been campaigning for the Presidency at all. Current political pundits seem to think Paul Ryan would emerge as that "dark horse" and he would be persuaded to accept the nomination in much the same manner as he was persuaded to accept the Speakership.

Yeah, that Paul Ryan thing is pretty strange:

**Seamus Fermanagh** · 03-21-2016, 18:59

I'd actually have been quite happen with a Ryan candidacy had he declared and run in the primaries. He's establishment enough to keep the party together; solidly conservative on the economic and foreign policy issues that matter to me; appropriately reluctant to legislate his morality for others on most issues; not so much of a purist that he would never make a reasonable deal solely because it involves working with the opposition; and is possessed of un-atrophied gray matter.

Selecting him out of the convention without a ground campaign in place is a LOT more problematic.

**Seamus Fermanagh** · 03-21-2016, 19:10

How the Delegates are committed for the first ballot vote:

SOURCE

**Greyblades** · 03-21-2016, 21:33

Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh

'blades:

Trump will arrive at the convention with the most delegates for a virtual certainty. However, there is a distinct possibility that he will be just short of the number required for nomination on the first ballot. If that first ballot fails to select a nominee, the large majority of delegates to the convention are then free to vote in favor of whomever they choose as nominee. It is not impossible for a person to be nominated even though they have not been campaigning for the Presidency at all. Current political pundits seem to think Paul Ryan would emerge as that "dark horse" and he would be persuaded to accept the nomination in much the same manner as he was persuaded to accept the Speakership.

I cannot say i would be happy to see that happen. It seems like denying the voters their choice.

Paul Ryan himself seems like a David Cameron; a conservative politician who is utterly unremarkable in himself but is both semi competent and inoffensive enough to allow a grudging cooperation with some of the opposition. If america was going to have a hold over president until someone better came along I think he would be a better choice than clinton, but go have it happen like this against the voters wishes will ruin it.

**Seamus Fermanagh** · 03-22-2016, 19:25

Originally Posted by Greyblades

I cannot say i would be happy to see that happen. It seems like denying the voters their choice.

Paul Ryan himself seems like a David Cameron; a conservative politician who is utterly unremarkable in himself but is both semi competent and inoffensive enough to allow a grudging cooperation with some of the opposition. If america was going to have a hold over president until someone better came along I think he would be a better choice than clinton, but go have it happen like this against the voters wishes will ruin it.

Paul Ryan's personal story is reasonably laudable, and while staunchly conservative, he is not rabidly so. I actually would be quite happy, from what I know today, to cast a vote for him for President.

However, he has said that he has no desire to take up the nomination and you are VERY much correct that a notable slice of GOP voters will be very disaffected if the party sidesteps all those who ran for the office in favor of someone who was not part of the process to date.