T-14 Armata

[Kadagar_AV]

I think USAnians should be a bit worried...

Not because of any direct threat this tank represent, but because Russia is once again building up their military export industry...

In these days where military casualties are highly frowned upon by the US populace, a small nation who suddenly get, say, 50 of these T14 has dramatically changed the balance..

Suddenly you will need boots on the ground, and have to count on casualties... That alone can be enough to make your leaders go "Let's do something else" as they act world police...

I do not by ANY means say or mean that you don't have the tools to deal with the job, I am just saying that this reminds me of Swedens cold war defense...

We KNEW Soviet could easily beat us, but our plan was more about making it not worthwhile to beat us, considering the cost and casualties.

Some modern AA, artillery (You can't spell party without "arty") and a few of these tanks, and suddenly one of your carrier groups alone wouldn't be enough to intervene.

Basically, the US now have to face the fact that they and us in the west is no longer the only supplier of modern arms, and can direct where it goes to... Now any dictator or autocrat can get their hands on A-level war material, and suddenly USA or the west at large have to invest way more than the taxpayer and worried mothers would deem it worth, to keep their international interests.

Seen from that angle, this is actually a rather big step up by Russia on the world political scene...

[Hooahguy]

Dan Carlin (has great podcasts on historical and modern issues) had a few interesting things to say on this topic. How Putin is basically the Russian version of Reagan, and how the West got so used to treating Russia like a third rate power that it lost the ability to deal with a nation in resurgence like Russia with any sort of deftness at all. We got so used to dealing with smaller powers like Iraq and even Iran for that matter, where we in the West can push them around with no real ramifications but now we are dealing with an almost equally powerful Russia and our leaders have no idea how to deal with them other than the same way we dealt with minor powers.

[Montmorency]

The real challenge to the West is not in terms of exports or technology or combat capability, but that it tests the limits of the new American strategy of regional multipolarity.

While it is quite clear that Russia does not have the resources to field, let alone manufacture, thousands of units of this platform, its unveiling pushes Western European governments closer to re-armament.

So:

A. America wants Europe to maintain its own security.

B. America does not want a volatile and highly-remilitarized Europe, either east or west.

Let me clarify point B. America wants to take the load off its shoulders, but it still wants to retain a significant amount of military influence and strategic control, especially in Europe. In other words, the implicit Russian threat is of a European arms race that limits American power throughout the continent. If the UK, France, and Germany were to step up and become significant military powers once again (though arguably the UK still has a relatively-powerful military), then European states from Iberia to the Caucasus would be less likely to rely on American military promises and posturing and instead turn inward. America, as we all know, has perceived a Europe able to act strongly outside of American will as a serious geopolitical risk for over a century.

The only alternatives, then, are calling Russia's bluff - risky, since Russia certainly isn't 100% bluffing - or the US taking the lead in European defence yet again, something that the United States has constantly wanted to avoid and is trying to orient itself away from. What I want to hear about are Western European reactions. Sure, Eastern Europe would love to have America take care of their defense, but then it all depends on how France, Germany, and the UK interpret their own roles. Maybe the old great powers will want to carve out their own spheres of influence once more...

[Montmorency]

For example, take the Middle East. An American success (purely in terms of geopolitics) there would be to have Iran, Israel, Turkey, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia all cooperative with the US, but at some level still competing with each other. In other words, America would have a strong say in internal and international affairs for each of those states, reaping economic dividends for itself while maintaining some sort of peace (including joint anti-Islamist efforts) through a balance of power. America would have no friends, but it would have all the major players as dependents and thus a lot of regional clout.

A remilitarized, competitive Europe would have a rather different dynamic, one less amenable to American influence. In the worst cases, it would result in a unified European power capable of challenging American hegemony, or a European war requiring another costly direct intervention. And then, with Asia in the game, it would be even murkier than before.

Consider that China and Russia are natural antagonists. On the other hand, China would much rather see Russia gain at the expense of the West than to see Western Europe, Japan, and the US dominate the world more than ever before.

[Husar]

The actual problem is that everyone but Europe wants to dominate the world.
Ok, the British may actually think that they can dominate the world by themselves, but they also don't think they're in Europe so my statement is still correct.
We'd all be better off if we dropped the aggressive competition component where arms and dead people start to appear. The problem with that idea is that you'd have to force some people to accept it or they would just take advantage of you.

No, I don't have a solution yet beyond the famous let's just nuke ourselves and leave the world to the amoebae and scorpions.

I do not want to start an arms race with Putin but I also do not want Putin to be my lord and savior. What would be nice would be a united European defense and more political integration. But for that we have to wait until the British get over themselves and leave already.