At worst this deal will delay Iran from obtaining enough enriched material for about a year. At best, this delays their weapons program for 15 years since one of the stipulations is that they can't enrich uranium above 3.67%, which is the level required for nuclear power generation but far below weapons grade. The number of centrifuges will be reduced by over half, leaving them with ~5,000.
This means that the 24/7 inspectors have multiple chances at detecting whether or not Iran is behaving badly. Uranium needs to be enriched over 90% to be ready for a nuclear bomb. The inspectors are looking for a supply chain consistent with enrichment for a nuclear energy program which will look different in size than a supply chain consistent with building nuclear weapons.
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