IMMIGRATION thread

[Husar]

Haha, I only came here to see if Fragony had already started the inevitable thread.

I agree with Don, the nazis will probably look for some poor guys to beat up so both sides end up creating more victims while the actual perpetrators may get away.

The press totally ignored it, that's why it is in all the public and private news outlets I guess.

Merkel ignored the issue by saying they should be persecuted "with the full force of the law".
Whether the law here is actually up to the task is up for debate though. No reason to vote for parties that would finance gas chambers, but I do wonder why we only know the extremes. There is not much to be found in much of the public debate between "all immigrants are kittens" and "all immigrants are rapist criminals, children included". Therein lies the real tragedy.

[Papewaio]

Rape victims per annum 9/100,000 in Germany reported.

Cologne metro: 1,000,000.
So 90 rape victims per annum in Cologne or .25 rapes per day.

Cologne regions: 10,000,000
So 900 rape victims per annum or 2.5 in the region per day.

1 rape victim is too many. But it is not proven it was a refugee nor does it make a statistical difference against the local background rate.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Rape victims per annum 9/100,000 in Germany reported.

Cologne metro: 1,000,000.
So 90 rape victims per annum in Cologne or .25 rapes per day.

Cologne regions: 10,000,000
So 900 rape victims per annum or 2.5 in the region per day.

1 rape victim is too many. But it is not proven it was a refugee nor does it make a statistical difference against the local background rate.

OK, now calculate for sexual assaults - irrc 80 were reported in one night, one was a rape.

So that's the one rape for four days in the Metro area or 1/90th of the yearly total.

Now - aside from that, what percentage do the 79 sexual assaults represent?

Also, according to the local German police these sexual assault at new year are different to the normal robbings and pick-pockets.

[a completely inoffensive name]

The answer is more unchecked immigration.

[Papewaio]

OK, now calculate for sexual assaults - irrc 80 were reported in one night, one was a rape.

Now - aside from that, what percentage do the 79 sexual assaults represent?

Also, according to the local German police these sexual assault at new year are different to the normal robbings and pick-pockets.

Sexual violence 56.56/100,000 or 566 per year in Cologne metro or 2 a day. So a 40 fold increase for the Metro.
Cologne region 5656 or 20/day.

What percentage of these are local vs refugees?

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

OK, so a 40-fold increase.

That's a big deal.

Reports are the majority of the assaults were committed by groups of Arabs/North Africans.

This is believable because we're talking about young men who have a very different view of what a "proper" woman is who have just escaped a war zone.

[Greyblades]

In this time of buried heads and plugged ears I find it funny that the norwegains are once again ahead of the curb, as instead of denying the existance of the immigrant population's often backwards cultural mores that cause such problems they are actively trying to change it through education.

This doesn't speak against the existence of a rape culture

I would have to disagree. The very idea is an utter fiction; modern British culture is not in any way one that considers blaming rape victims and young men raping as a normal part of life.

To suggest otherwise is utterly anathema to reality; that rape is so frowned upon and the victims so valued that thier word is taken as golden truth by many and any who is accused, once made public, becomes largely unemployable, regardless of truth of claim.

[Montmorency]

the victims so valued that thier word is taken as golden truth by many and any who is accused, once made public, becomes largely unemployable, regardless of truth of claim.

That's completely false, however. In the handful of cases where there is a public furor over some case, it is almost always because a well-connected university student forces it into public attention through publications and rallies. This puts pressure on the university as a corporation and institution, which is why they so often react by quickly shafting one or the other party (whichever is most expedient in the event) and hoping something else captures the public's attention soon. As I have already pointed out, what you are seeing as the ostracization of the accused is actually the volatile reaction of activists eager to "make an example" out of someone. In the wider world, they don't usually face any stigma or professional difficulty predicated upon having been accused of rape, if it even comes up at all.

Meanwhile, rape accusations that come from the countless individuals who don't become an Internet favorite or have the capacity to get a horde of activists on the warpath - those individuals (many male, by the way) have their claims taken about as seriously as a 5-year-old's claim that there is a growling wolf in the basement.

Reorganize your understanding of the issue.

[Beskar]

In this time of buried heads and plugged ears I find it funny that the norwegains are once again ahead of the curb, as instead of denying the existance of the immigrant population's often backwards cultural mores that cause such problems they are actively trying to change it through education.

And this is the way things should be handled, through education and discussion.

[InsaneApache]

Haha, I only came here to see if Fragony had already started the inevitable thread.

I agree with Don, the nazis will probably look for some poor guys to beat up so both sides end up creating more victims while the actual perpetrators may get away.

The press totally ignored it, that's why it is in all the public and private news outlets I guess.

Merkel ignored the issue by saying they should be persecuted "with the full force of the law".
Whether the law here is actually up to the task is up for debate though. No reason to vote for parties that would finance gas chambers, but I do wonder why we only know the extremes. There is not much to be found in much of the public debate between "all immigrants are kittens" and "all immigrants are rapist criminals, children included". Therein lies the real tragedy.

I feel sorry for you, I really do. The mental contortions must keep you up at night mate.

German police have admitted to losing several urban areas to migrant gangs as so-called no-go zones, but this is possibly the first time a public square in the centre of a European city has been acknowledged by officials as having been lost to criminality, and out of the control of police at night.

“This means, they should go out and have fun, but they need to be better prepared, especially with the Cologne carnival coming up. For this, we will publish online guidelines* that these young women can read through to prepare themselves”.

Presumably this involves covering up from head to toe in clothing and only going out accompanied by a male relative.

Your country will be unrecognisable in a couple of years, if not sooner.

[Fragony]

Your country will be unrecognisable in a couple of years, if not sooner.

Never state the obvious it makes you look dumb. It isn't dumb but hey, according to the childless mutti it will all be fine if we all pray more. Talk about a religious nutjob childless mutti with a messias complex. And they do just that in her inner circles as well. She didn't just lose her mind but caused a lot of damage to all Europeans with just ignoring the Dublin treaty concerning the Schengen zone. Come to me little children. Screw that dumb-eyed farmhorse.

[Husar]

I came to this thread and I have been disappointed.

"But, but, there's no EVIDENCE that the refugees did it."

"The nazis, it's all in their heads! They saw some arabs and africans and blew it out of proportion!"

"It's only 1000 out of 1000000 it's statistically correct."

Yeah yeah. It's 1000 organized DAISIES groping and harassing white skinned blond gemran women for having the audacity to celebrate NYE outside without their leashes and ninja outfits!

The media is all hush-hush about it because we have to be tolerant. Well now. Merkel did want the immigrants to freshen up the gene pool. That's one way to do it.

Can you tell me what would have happened if 1000 strong aryan males had gathered near a mosque and had groped and put their fingers up the orifices of arab/african women coming out of said mosque? Why, it would have been an intenrational crisis. They would probably have been bombed by NATO by now.

These are the childless mutti's little children, coooome to meeee. Face it Merkel has lost her mind and should be running around between padded walls in a selfhugsuit. Just look at her eyes

Edit, how typical. Collognes mayor responds. Good no? Women should keep their distance from men at carnaval. True. But that isn't what happened at New Years Eve. Is it so hard to admit that these were the childless muttii's little children who turned Collogne's station-area into the tahir-square.

lol gets even better, a website with advice, www.notgettingsexuallyassaultedby1000arabs.de. Ok I made the name up but it's there. Except any mention of Arabs. How did Germany ever build these nice skylines? Bit unpractical 'Gunter can you hand me the spade?' Sorry I only have a peace of metal that is attached to a wooden stick with the purpose of digging sand. 'yeah that'. Most valuable advice 'stay inside when you can'. Merkel's Germany.

I feel sorry for you, I really do. The mental contortions must keep you up at night mate.





Presumably this involves covering up from head to toe in clothing and only going out accompanied by a male relative.

Your country will be unrecognisable in a couple of years, if not sooner.

Ya'll can't read...

http://www.tagesschau.de/inland/de-m...koeln-103.html
http://www.spiegel.de/panorama/justi...a-1070730.html
http://www.spiegel.de/panorama/justi...a-1070763.html
http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/i...-14000167.html
http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/i...-14000124.html
http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/i...-14000424.html
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-35237173

Who has the mental contortions about "the press is silent" or "Merkel supports this"?
And who is reading my "I agree with Don." as an excuse? Let me quote Don:

That being said, the crime itself is intolerable.

Ya'll seriously need to check yer preconceptions and read...

[Fragony]

Merkel just didn't expect this because she is a religionaly insane idiot with a messias-complex. Everybody else did.

[Don Corleone]

Speaking to the question of my assertion that we live in a rape culture... I should clarify that I'm speaking to the everyday occurrence in America. From regular business trips to UK and continental Europe, I believe you folks are more evolved on this issue than we are.

I'm not saying that every woman that claims rape should automatically be believed, or that false reports aren't made. Of course they are. The Duke Lacrosse case a couple of years ago certainly highlighted that. And yes, there is stigma attached to being on the receiving end of a rape accusation in some circles.

But my reason for making a statement like that...

-According to the FBI (not a policy group), only 1 in 10 sexual assaults gets reported.
-Also according to the FBI, only 1 in 10 sexual assaults that get reported actually have charges filed.
-Also, according to... you guessed it, the FBI, 1 in 20 perpetrators that get charged actually end up getting convicted.
-That means there's a 1 in 2000 chance you won't get away with it.
-Until a federal spending bill 2 years criminalized the practice, hospitals used to bill the victim for their rape kits in most jurisdictions.
-Unlike theft, assault, arson, murder of other serious crimes, rape trials are as much about the victim as they are about the defendant:
-What was she wearing
-What was her sexual history
-Was she alone? Why?
-Had she been drinking?
-Was she acquainted with the perpetrator? Did she agree to some consensual contact prior to the assault?

If Europe has evolved completely beyond the above, bravo. And that would seriously have me consider becoming an immigrant to Germany myself.

My original point however still stands. "Those filthy brownies are after our women" is so played out, I'm surprised you don't see it for what it is. 1) There's an overwhelming majority of those folks that are not involved in this and 2) if anybody goes after your women... there's your problem. If a Freemason burns my house down, I go after arsonists, not the Freemasons.

[Fragony]

You mean well but the correlations are indisputable. If you would say a sexist-culture I cannot disagree but is that all that horrible. its mutually exclusive. In any case, some nerve what these cultural-enrichers did. We are not to tolerate people who fell of their camel lost his tent and somehow ended up in Europe

[rvg]

People with culture are culturally enriching local women. Why do you ungrateful barbarians resist being culturally enriched?

[Fragony]

People with culture are culturally enriching local women. Why do you ungrateful barbarians resist being culturally enriched?

I prefer 'mutually respected' heh

[Viking]

I'm not saying that every woman that claims rape should automatically be believed, or that false reports aren't made. Of course they are. The Duke Lacrosse case a couple of years ago certainly highlighted that. And yes, there is stigma attached to being on the receiving end of a rape accusation in some circles.

But my reason for making a statement like that...

-According to the FBI (not a policy group), only 1 in 10 sexual assaults gets reported.
-Also according to the FBI, only 1 in 10 sexual assaults that get reported actually have charges filed.
-Also, according to... you guessed it, the FBI, 1 in 20 perpetrators that get charged actually end up getting convicted.
-That means there's a 1 in 2000 chance you won't get away with it.
-Until a federal spending bill 2 years criminalized the practice, hospitals used to bill the victim for their rape kits in most jurisdictions.

All fine and dandy, but how does this indicate that we are dealing with a "rape culture"? (it's not hard to think of alternative explanations)

Importantly, the statistics you've chosen do not include the perpetrators. How do they compare to the average individual? How do they score on empathy? How good are they at reading other people?

A relevant perspective:

In other studies, Treat and colleagues have found that men who have difficulties perceiving and remembering sexual interest are more likely to endorse rape myths. The endorsement of rape myths is generally seen as indicating an increased tendency to engage in sexual coercion and aggression.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/blog...she-interested

^ This could potentially be a biological failure.

-Unlike theft, assault, arson, murder of other serious crimes, rape trials are as much about the victim as they are about the defendant:
-What was she wearing
-What was her sexual history
-Was she alone? Why?
-Had she been drinking?
-Was she acquainted with the perpetrator? Did she agree to some consensual contact prior to the assault?

References? (e.g. for prevalence)

[Husar]

Eh, this will sound emotional, but I always get so mad when things like this happen, being a kind-hearted mammoth that wouldn't hurt a daisy and all. I think it's a bit taffing late for education and discussion when an organized throng decides to go stone age on whatever women come at hand. I'm not saying to go full hitler on the animals, but I wouldn't be shy about letting the riot police have an off the record field day on each and every one of those deplorable genetic accidents that believe themselves to be men, followed up by a life of forced labor in the coal mine or something equivalent to that. I guess some form of (preferably painful) castration wouldn't be too extreme a measure in the given circumstances either.

I believe education and discussion should be a part of a human's life in an attempt to avoid this kind of downfall. If you get down into the kind of filth that those men indulged, I don't think you ever get to come out and clean yourself again. You are forever lost to society and simply constitute a danger for those around you.

It makes me angry as well, but even angrier when the police cannot or does not stop these things. Maybe we need more guns again...
In the end it is indeed a political failure, we have achieved long jail terms and incredibly high fines for someone who copies a Disney movie while organized crimes has almost been welcomed here. The Italian, Lebanese, Balkan and whatever other mafia, rocker gangs, human trafficking, all gone up. No-go-zones for the police may not exist in the classic sense but in situations like these I wish to spawn a unit of knights of santiago as well. Overall though you go way too far, while I believe in immediate punishment and enforcing the peace through violence when needed, revenge and ongoing violence cannot be the answer. Neither can mass-deportations or sweeping generalizations, further ghettoization or mass-criminalization based on skin color. If you look for Germans who show similar behavior, you will usually find them among the poor strata of society, since Fragony like correlations, why does this one never come up? How many rich, educated immigrants riot in the streets?

Not to forget that a lot of those who rioted there were likely not ones who came with the latest waves of refugees, they organized themselves to come there apparently and some say there were known criminals among them who are known to the police for a while already. Not that it's very important either way as this shouldn't happen and lead to a rejection of asylum status. But what do you do with 3rd generation immigrants who are citizens? Jail them all? I mean you need a long-term solution either way and jail and violence should be temporary. Castration and other revenge acts may just lead to a jihadist army of eunuchs, hardly an improvement.
Not to forget that barbarian punishments do not exactly show that we are any better.

Oh and not to forget that the number of policemen has been steadily reduced by politicians in many places, despite the fact that we still needquite a few of them. Somehow we are a richer society than ever, yet we cannot afford anything anymore. Oh wait, we bailed out all the banks, yeah, that sounds more important...

A relevant perspective:

In other studies, Treat and colleagues have found that men who have difficulties perceiving and remembering sexual interest are more likely to endorse rape myths. The endorsement of rape myths is generally seen as indicating an increased tendency to engage in sexual coercion and aggression.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/blog...she-interested

^ This could potentially be a biological failure.

So people who think most refugees/immigrants are rapists have a higher likelihood of being rapists themselves?

[Shaka_Khan]

I doubt that the police will catch all 1000 of them. Germany needs to increase police presence in the dangerous areas. The offenders will do this again if they feel that they can get away with it. In the American cities like Detroit and L.A. and in the Australian cities like Melbourne, cops are unable to stop gang violence. In these areas, bystanders become victims of gang rivalries because the gangs mistook them as rival gang members. If someone gets robbed or gets his or her car vandalized in these cities, the cops will say that the victim was at a sketchy area and will most likely do nothing about it. The cops accepted this as being normal. There are crazies in every city. However, some cities don't experience problems from them because those potential troublemakers know that they'd get in trouble if they attack people.

I for one believe that the offenders knew what they were doing was wrong. They assaulted a police woman who tried to stop them. It's a problem if the offenders aren't afraid of the police. Who's going to stop them? The lack of action is making these offenders feel more powerful. The best way to educate these offenders is to increase police presence. Then they'll know that Germany isn't allowing these offenses to happen. If an offender goes back to that train station and see an increase in the number of police, then that offender will know that Germany is doing something about this. If Germany doesn't, then they'll think the German government doesn't care. The German police should've reacted quickly with more police when it was happening.

[wooly_mammoth]

@Husar

Of course you are totally right, I just felt the need to vent out a bit (but still, Builder be praised, hadst I a Hammer I would smash each of the perpetrators to tiniest pieces -.-). This is just unheard of. I won't put forward absurd dreams of a crimeless society, but something of this magnitude must never happen in Europe if we still claim to be a civilized part of the world.

[Greyblades]

Pray tell, why Germany should spend time and resources educating people who should not be there in the first place?

Well, according to this guy it's because germany needs the infusion of young workers due to an aging population.

[Greyblades]

But my reason for making a statement like that...

-According to the FBI (not a policy group), only 1 in 10 sexual assaults gets reported.
-Also according to the FBI, only 1 in 10 sexual assaults that get reported actually have charges filed.
-Also, according to... you guessed it, the FBI, 1 in 20 perpetrators that get charged actually end up getting convicted.
-That means there's a 1 in 2000 chance you won't get away with it.

To say I am not impressed, with how you can come to that conclusion, would be an understatment.

That the first statistic is an estimate based on... I cant imagine, cynicism? How can anyone give accurate stats on things that are unreported?

The second statistic is entirely based on victim willingness to press charges, the motives of which cannot be stated with confidence as each one could be anything from "well it was just a kiss, we were on a date so maybe I shouldn't be getting so worked up" to "his family will kill me if I press charges" or even "I'm lying and I can't trust the court will fall for it"

And the third is completely irrelevant as we have no idea how many of those 9/10 unconvicted cases were innocent and thus justified.

From this you cannot in good conscience say sexual assulters have a 1 in 2000 chance of getting caught.

Compounding this is my understanding that in america sexual assault has a wide reaching definition, some would say absurdly so. How much of that useless 1 in 2000 stat regarding rape and how much is just accidentally overstepping the desired bounds in a date? We cannot know.

-Until a federal spending bill 2 years criminalized the practice, hospitals used to bill the victim for their rape kits in most jurisdictions.

Was this a "rape culture" problem or a privatised medicine wanting to make money problem?

-Unlike theft, assault, arson, murder of other serious crimes, rape trials are as much about the victim as they are about the defendant:
-What was she wearing
-What was her sexual history
-Was she alone? Why?
-Had she been drinking?
-Was she acquainted with the perpetrator? Did she agree to some consensual contact prior to the assault?

The first and third questions is irrelavent and should be rightly ridiculed but the rest are very important in determining concent, as a major problem in rape accusations is victims retroactively denying concent.

My original point however still stands. "Those filthy brownies are after our women" is so played out, I'm surprised you don't see it for what it is. 1) There's an overwhelming majority of those folks that are not involved in this and 2) if anybody goes after your women... there's your problem. If a Freemason burns my house down, I go after arsonists, not the Freemasons.

Agreed, and if the arsonists are Freemasons we should go after them regardless of their status.

[Montmorency]

And the third is completely irrelevant as we have no idea how many of those 9/10 unconvicted cases were innocent and thus justified.

It is quite important as it indicates that the social consequences of rape accusations are minimal unless you go so far as to assume that in all the unreported cases and all the cases that do not see court, there are still fewer 'true rapes' than there are spurious trials, and that in such unreported cases and cases that do not see court, that the accused are so much as inconvenienced, let alone penalized by employers and peers who never hear word of the matter anyway.

How much of that useless 1 in 2000 stat regarding rape and how much is just accidentally overstepping the desired bounds in a date? We cannot know.

That's more to do with fundamental disagreements over what constitutes "rape" than any legitimate methodological or statistical complaint.

Is this a "rape culture" problem or a privatised medicine wanting to make money problem?

What privatized medicine? Rape kits are virtually never tested, as they are tested in-house and police see their priorities as (anywhere) else.

but the rest are very important in determining concent

Inebriation legally precludes consent.

Sexual history would be even less relevant here than a record of plagiarism.

If we take consent earlier in an encounter or in an earlier encounter to be meaningful, then we must ask of those who insist that this is so how it can be judged to affect the case in any principled way.

as a major problem in rape accusations is victims retroactively denying concent.

How do you figure that?

[Greyblades]

It is quite important as it indicates that the social consequences of rape accusations are minimal

No it doesnt. It indicates that the Legal consequences of rape accusations are minimal.

unless you go so far as to assume that in all the unreported cases and all the cases that do not see court, there are still fewer 'true rapes' than there are spurious trials, and that in such unreported cases and cases that do not see court, that the accused are so much as inconvenienced, let alone penalized by employers and peers who never hear word of the matter anyway.

If they dont hear a word of the matter. If they do, like say through the internet or social media, it is highly damaging to the accused reputation and may result in termination of employment.

That's more to do with fundamental disagreements over what constitutes "rape" than any legitimate methodological or statistical complaint.

My point being that the USA putting all sexual crimes, from misemeanours like groping to felonies like rape, all under one umbrella term is highly detrimental to the statistic's value in this argument.

What privatized medicine? Rape kits are virtually never tested, as they are tested in-house and police see their priorities as (anywhere) else.

...he's not arguing about the rape kit's usefulness he's arguing the rape kit's price. Which was a consequence of having free market healthcare not this "rape culture"

Seriously do you even finish reading before you start replying?

Inebriation legally precludes consent.

Alcohol is and has long been humanity's most powerful external tool for sellf replication. To automatically assume that intoxication percludes consent results in absurdity; if that was true at least 50% of all men and women in recorded history who have bred are rapists, including a good number of your ancestors.

Sexual history would be even less relevant here than a record of plagiarism.

If we take consent earlier in an encounter or in an earlier encounter to be meaningful, then we must ask of those who insist that this is so how it can be judged to affect the case in any principled way.

If they have a history of agreeing to fuck every man/woman in sight it would add validity to an argument in court that the prosecution was doing the same with this one, only they regretted it later.

How do you figure that?

Common sense.

[Fisherking]

Haha, I only came here to see if Fragony had already started the inevitable thread.

I agree with Don, the nazis will probably look for some poor guys to beat up so both sides end up creating more victims while the actual perpetrators may get away.

The press totally ignored it, that's why it is in all the public and private news outlets I guess.

Merkel ignored the issue by saying they should be persecuted "with the full force of the law".
Whether the law here is actually up to the task is up for debate though. No reason to vote for parties that would finance gas chambers, but I do wonder why we only know the extremes. There is not much to be found in much of the public debate between "all immigrants are kittens" and "all immigrants are rapist criminals, children included". Therein lies the real tragedy.

The press here has been offering many apologies for their late reporting of it. It has resulted in some outrage though not what you might expect in other countries because of the fear of painting all with a broad brush.

I have only ever lived in southern Germany. I am no expert but have on several occasions had instruction courses on rape as it relates to Germany.
What I was taught was that it has always been viewed as a foreign crime.
From what I know, this is also proven to be true for almost all cases.
I was also taught that, usually, Germans saw rape as as bad as murder, or nearly so.
Maybe you as a native German can shed some light on this?

[Fragony]

The unnoficial press caught up soon enough here. But isn't all too obvious, you can haul someone out of the desert but you can't take out the desert. The west is too confusing 'I cannots touchies? wtf?' These people just don't belong here.