Rise of The Snake Cult [Concluded]

[Winston Hughes]

That's pretty much the only reason I'm not voting for you.

[El Barto]

Then you admit to having an overinflated ego?

LL has tripped a few wires here and there for people. I'm null currently. I really like the analysis we're getting, but feels a bit like their trying to keep their head out of ring. That could be a conservative townie, or it could be a conciliatory mafia. I like the feedback enough though that I wouldn't vote that way yet. Analysts are prime assets and all.

Vote: Severing Viper. Where'd you go buddy?

As Monsieur de Viper says, where's Al to answer that?

(also, that vote is invalid)

I'm not trying to be conservative, not really. I'm not usually the kind of person who speculates openly in-thread, although I do realize that the limitations on private messaging mean that I ought to be more forthcoming than usual. For what it's worth, I've still got Al Sips as town. Nothing has really changed there. JHT could still be mafia, sure, but he's never easy to read. I'd lynch several people in this thread before him. I've got a vote on Zain because his flinches seem more severe than regular eagerness. He's quite worried about how his words are perceived, and I don't like that.

Bolded: such as…?

I found nothing wrong in Khaan's reasoning about Scarlett and didn't like the other candidates so that's why I voted for her. In hindsight it wasn't wise.

Does tonight's write-up indicate that Scarlett was an important role?

Possibly. Probably. Whether important in-sotry or in terms of abilities, I don't know, but the update (post #331) does say the role was ‘the Duchess’.

What does this mean? What chart?

Oh, it's a jokey answer, a chart made by Kennigit on CFC around five years ago, it might still be on Imageshack.

[landlubber]

Bolded: such as…?.

Zain, for starters. Beyond him, Cuth, Nightbringer, and Severing Viper all strike me as more scummy than JHT.

[Cuthillius]

Zain, for starters. Beyond him, Cuth, Nightbringer, and Severing Viper all strike me as more scummy than JHT.

What about Hankie?

[El Barto]

Also, why and in which order?

btw I've just realised I haven't voted. vote:Autolycus

[Cass_]

Just want to be helpful, I just can't keep up. It's like y'all know rules and strategies I haven't heard of so I'm learning.

Gonna start with this cos I know I'm feeling ruffled, potentially in pretty much the same way. D2 ran away from me too quickly and being busy IRL doesn't help. In most cases I'm willing to give behaviour like this an early pass because I have this exact trouble. Zain, how much mafia have you played? (It might help me understand you more if I knew more about your meta).

Oh dear, I need to get my head in this game.

Here is a compilation of seireikhaan's posts for convenience.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

DAY 1



Might slant me towards believing GH is town since there is no real reason to draw associations with your fellow mafia.



Pretty meaningless response.



(Barto had just voted GH)

I would say this is basically just playing into normal meta, although again no real reason to think he would do this towards fellow mafia without need, especially since all the votes were so close on day 1.



I find it hard to believe he would be having this conversation with fellow mafia, so I'm inclined to trust cass.



I would say this is just a meta post.



Again, I would say this is basically meta. It just feels too blatant to be a bluff against either GH or El Barto




This is probably the most interesting post to me. While it is, in and of itself, a fair point, I just don't see the reason to stick your neck out like this as mafia. Until this point all of seireikhaan's posts have been very insubstantial, so why suddenly throw yourself into a debate? It just makes your name more visible. While it could be that he simply felt he needed to look more active, I'm inclined to think this may have been provoked by something.

That Scarlett was gotten rid of tonight is probably just because she was a clear innocent after this post.

As such, I'm wanting to look more closely at Al Sipsclar for the time being. I'm going to go through the thread more closely again, but I might as well stick this here for now.

I liked this post. The only thing I disagree with is that I didn't really have Scarlett fully clear for this. It's a bad habit carried over from my first game with her - Sorry Miyu! :P :P

@Nightbringer, did you get a chance to figure anything further out? How does Al Sips look to you now?

Also, this is a great characterization of my usual activity in mafia games for a while now, although i do tend to get much more active once there are less people around. I tend to find the early game a bit overwhelming.

I tend to find this entire game overwhelming... but fun when I can keep up! Thanks for the meta - it's hard being new...

1. Jarema
2. GeneralHankerchief
3. Golden1Knight
4. Cuthillius
6. Zain
7. landlubber
8. edse
10. Raith Kemmler
12. El Barto
13. Al Sipsclar
14. Winston Hughes
15. Nightbringer
16. Autolycus
17. Cass
18. Johnhughthom
19. Severing viper

16 people left. The four that voted for Khaan are probably not mafia. I'm not mafia.

The first day Khaan made an early joke vote.

Later, when GH was tied for the lead, he changed it.


That's good enough for me at the moment Vote: GeneralHankerchief

I pretty much agree, but why you have to cross everybody's name out so soon? I feel like I'm already dead :( :( :( At least things clear up when I die :D Sorry. Brain farts. When does your poison kick in again?

I wouldn't say so, the flavor text does imply her death was in exchange for an important mafia role going down, but flavor is flavor, never wise to read into it unless the host says it might contain hints.

Also, hi, have a votecount:
GeneralHankerchief: edse, Jarema, Al Sipsclar
edse: autolycus
Zain: landlubber
johnhughthom: GeneralHankerchief
SeveringViper: Raith Kemmler (improper formatting)
Al Sipsclar: Zain

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

And a few questions:


What does this mean? What chart?



You never answered this, Al. Let me add that on your reads list not long before, you had Barto and Cuth among your slight town, for content and scumhunting, respectively, yet in the post quoted, you say you'll be fine with either being lynched? And what about your scum reads? You said this in reply to the post of Barto I quoted right before this, did that make him lose his town rank in your eyes? How/Why?


Did you do this and did you see anything you'd missed?



...? What does this mean? What prompted this?


You were answering Barto's question in Al's place, why? And why do you specifically answer about landlubber, the one person in that list who Al didn't read town?

And GH, you stand as the top lynch candidate, what do you have to say about that? Anyone you think should stand in your place? I understand you're voting jht because you feel he just takes up a spot?

TY for the vote count. I mostly liked this post, even though it kind of felt like #work. I need to go back and look at D1 votes and why everyone's voting GH again. I'm not necessarily against the lynch but I'm not sure it gives us much more information?

Vote: GH

BAYS.

Huh? Is this another meta thing I wouldn't get? Tbh, I'm probably willing to vote GH over my same earlier suspicions but since there's talk of lynching you too it might help if you explain.

Zain, for starters. Beyond him, Cuth, Nightbringer, and Severing Viper all strike me as more scummy than JHT.

I'm not sure what to make of this. Like I said, I kind of get where Zain's coming from. Have to look closer at JHT to comment on the rest.

…But Visor isn't playing.

Lol'd

I'll be fine with El Barto's lynch.
Also landlubber or Cuthillius.

Why? I have been mostly fine with your logic (and can even understand you not liking the difference in our play styles :P) but still have a similar view of El Barto as I did D1, although I'm wary.... The WIFOM is strong with this one. Is there something that I'm missing?

TBH my head's a mess right now. I'll try to vote before EoD but I'll be out on mobile trying to weigh things up as I go, but my vote will probably be last minute again :P

GLGL!

[Al Sipsclar]

Nested quotes are pain.

I'll be fine with El Barto's lynch.
Also landlubber or Cuthillius.

Why and why?

You never answered this, Al.

I did answer that, but...

I'm trying to break out of my activity based meta.

...? What does this mean? What prompted this?

... you did not understand.

That was my response to El Barto's "why and why". It was supposed to show up right under it, but GH posted before me, and I didn't bother to go back and edit in a quote.
My change of heart on El Barto, LL and Cuth was prompted by GH criticizing me for correlating activity to townieness in #360. So I thought whom I considered town mostly due to activity, and these three came to mind at that moment.
Mind you, this is likely just a paranoia. I can't get good reads on these guys.

[Al Sipsclar]

I'm really torn about General. His posts sound reasonable, but I don't like his D1 vote and tunneling on JHT.
However, I'd rather lynch SV or Nightbringer over GH.
Vote: SeveringViper

[Visor]

GH (Edse, Jarema, Al Sips, JHT, Cuth)
Edse (Auto)
Zain (Landlubber)
JHT (GH)
Al Sips (Zain)
Sev (Winston, Al Sips)
Auto (El Barto)

[Visor]

End of Day Three

An undercover agent was brought out and tried for crimes against the court. They were shocked to find out the truth!

GeneralHankerchief was lynched!

He was

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

The Deep Agent

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

But Upon his death he was actually aligned to a third party.

Alive: 15/20
1. Jarema
3. Golden1Knight
4. Cuthillius
6. Zain
7. landlubber
8. edse
10. Raith Kemmler
12. El Barto
13. Al Sipsclar
14. Winston Hughes
15. Nightbringer
16. Autolycus
17. Cass
18. Johnhughthom
19. Severing viper

Dead: 5/20
11. Beskar, lynched D1, town.
9. Csargo, killed N1, town.
5. seireikhaan, lynched D2, mafia.
20. Scarlett Aria, killed N2, town.
2. GeneralHankerchief, lynched D3, third party.

48 hours for day.

[GeneralHankerchief]

[El Barto]

Nested quotes are pain.

You get used to it.

I did answer that, but...

... you did not understand.

That was my response to El Barto's "why and why". It was supposed to show up right under it, but GH posted before me, and I didn't bother to go back and edit in a quote.
My change of heart on El Barto, LL and Cuth was prompted by GH criticizing me for correlating activity to townieness in #360. So I thought whom I considered town mostly due to activity, and these three came to mind at that moment.
Mind you, this is likely just a paranoia. I can't get good reads on these guys.

OK, you were doing that to not evaluate based on activity alone… and yet, you haven't said why you suspected those people in particular.

I'm really torn about General. His posts sound reasonable, but I don't like his D1 vote and tunneling on JHT.
However, I'd rather lynch SV or Nightbringer over GH.
Vote: SeveringViper

I'll repeat myself then. Why and why? (well, with 20/20 hindsight I can definitely assure you that GH is not town)

[Winston Hughes]

GH (Edse, Jarema, Al Sips, JHT, Cuth)
Edse (Auto)
Zain (Landlubber)
JHT (GH)
Al Sips (Zain)
Sev (Winston, Al Sips)
Auto (El Barto)

Al Sips is in there twice.

[Al Sipsclar]

Al Sips is in there twice.

That's because I didn't unvote!

[Winston Hughes]

Why did you vote for SV?

[Al Sipsclar]

OK, you were doing that to not evaluate based on activity alone… and yet, you haven't said why you suspected those people in particular.

Because I was clearing them based mostly on the activity. By default, I suspect everyone whom I don't clear to some degree. Those people in particular had not shown anything redeeming them in my eyes, other than being active, at the moment I wrote that.

I'm really torn about General. His posts sound reasonable, but I don't like his D1 vote and tunneling on JHT.
However, I'd rather lynch SV or Nightbringer over GH.
Vote: SeveringViper

I'll repeat myself then. Why and why? (well, with 20/20 hindsight I can definitely assure you that GH is not town)

Because they are my other scum leans listed in #351. Like I said, I'd rather play against active scum than with passive town.

[Al Sipsclar]

Why did you vote for SV?

Because nobody was voting for my other choice.

[Winston Hughes]

Because nobody was voting for my other choice.

What do you think of Cass?

[Al Sipsclar]

What do you think of Cass?

Cass is lock town. As is El Barto now that GH flipped scum, based on the D1 vote.

Do I understand it correctly that GH was a third-party member of the mafia faction; that is, all mafia dudes thought he was one of them?
I wonder how the endgame was going to work in the case when all townies are dead, but GH is still alive. Will they have to lynch and kill each other until they find him? I'd love to see that!

[Winston Hughes]

Do I understand it correctly that GH was a third-party member of the mafia faction; that is, all mafia dudes thought he was one of them?

That's my reading. Assume higher scum numbers to compensate.

[Raith Kemmler]

I wonder how the endgame was going to work in the case when all townies are dead, but GH is still alive.

Isn't reduce to parity the standard victory condition? Besides, we don't know what his goal was. End game cannibalize seems unlikely.

[Winston Hughes]

@Raith Kemmler

Can I get a leans list from you, pls?

[autolycus]

If we're really in day again and only have nine hours left, we'd better start voting. I'd like to get some response from Golden1knight

[Visor]

It's night.

[autolycus]

ok. I was confused because your write-up said 48 hours for day.

[El Barto]

That's because I didn't unvote!

This cheating cheat cheats!

Because I was clearing them based mostly on the activity. By default, I suspect everyone whom I don't clear to some degree. Those people in particular had not shown anything redeeming them in my eyes, other than being active, at the moment I wrote that.


Because they are my other scum leans listed in #351. Like I said, I'd rather play against active scum than with passive town.

OK, I'll quote you from there:

Severing viper - MIA? duplicate posts D1. Understandable since he's new to the forum, though might also show nervousness.
Nightbringer - some attempt at analysis, but no vote?

Nightbringer is slightly more scummy at that point, then Mr. Viper goes on to reappear after 6 RL days (post #379, not a bad one, actually) and hasn't posted since then. Hardly much to read either way, but he's on the list. Nightbringer has made one post fewer, having #334 as his last where he half-promises to post more once there are fewer players alive. >_<

Do I understand it correctly that GH was a third-party member of the mafia faction; that is, all mafia dudes thought he was one of them?
I wonder how the endgame was going to work in the case when all townies are dead, but GH is still alive. Will they have to lynch and kill each other until they find him? I'd love to see that!

Yes, that's weird. GH is mafia but isn't… or what?

If we're really in day again and only have nine hours left, we'd better start voting. I'd like to get some response from Golden1knight

It's night.

Shhhh! We might have gotten more out of him if he thought it was day.

[El Barto]

ok. I was confused because your write-up said 48 hours for day.

…to arrive. You need an English-Australian dictionary.

[Golden1Knight]

If we're really in day again and only have nine hours left, we'd better start voting. I'd like to get some response from Golden1knight

Responses? Something specific in mind?

[El Barto]

I can't help but point out that you should OMGUS him.

[Cass_]

I'm leaving at 3am in the morning and will be driving interstate for the next couple of days so my activity will be scarce.

Wanted to follow up with this -

What content?

I only remember him protecting Al Sipsclair (though now Al Sips voted for his lynching).

@Golden1Knight is this the post you were referencing here? What's your current read on Al Sips and Cuth?

This seems rather silly to me. For what purpose would a mafioso move their vote around so much on day 1 for? It's too scatterbrained to be anything scheming. You might be correct that he doesn't care too much if they die or not, but that doesn't necessarily translate to him being mafia.

Vote: Scarlett Aria

While I find the case made by Cuthilius flimsy, I don't necessarily fault him for that in the sense of being guilty. What I *do* find suspicious is others latching onto it without any explanation of why they might agree with it. My eye is on GoldenKnight too, but Scarlett's setting off my bells slightly harder.

Mostly for this. I don't even agree that Al was "under the radar". Under the radar is what I did. If he's flopping around with his vote, he's almost exactly the opposite; it's noisy and draws attention to himself. That doesn't strike me as mafia behavior, and it raises a brow from me that you would hop onto a case with such odd... reasoning.

Alarm bells are ringing for me given the combination of these two posts. I can see the point about defending Al Sips, but that wasn't what stood out to me when I first read through. Especially with Khaan and Scarlett's flips, the whole thing reads to me like potential distancing from a combination of the the other's in the post (Cuth/GK), using Al Sips as the 'focus'. I got the impression from EoD discussions that Khaan is a competent scum player, so I don't think it's necessarily as simple as 'defending Al Sips', although that could simply be the case.

[spoiler]

This is probably the most interesting post to me. While it is, in and of itself, a fair point, I just don't see the reason to stick your neck out like this as mafia. Until this point all of seireikhaan's posts have been very insubstantial, so why suddenly throw yourself into a debate? It just makes your name more visible. While it could be that he simply felt he needed to look more active, I'm inclined to think this may have been provoked by something.

That Scarlett was gotten rid of tonight is probably just because she was a clear innocent after this post.

As such, I'm wanting to look more closely at Al Sipsclar for the time being. I'm going to go through the thread more closely again, but I might as well stick this here for now.

This one stands out as potential distancing also (from Khaan, post flip), for the roundabout approach and again focus on Al Sips. @Nightbringer - what did you discover on your re-read? What's your read on GK, Cuth and Al Sips?

Similarly with this one

Not before sleep caught up to me. I did it a little while ago and nothing really jumped out at me. Cuth reads town, he's been prodding people and looking for holes.

Could be GH was protecting Cuth, could be WIFOM cos he knew he was likely going down.

I'm think I'm specifically interested/troubled by the interaction between Cuth and Al Sips earlier ITT. My first impression was that Cuth was FoSing Sips and I found Sips more Town, but later the two of them seemed to kiss and make up without really giving reads on each other, which I found sus. Particularly the way Cuth picked out a post and just said 'I like this, you can be town' or whatever it was.

Anyway, I have Cuth to thank for this gif from our last game (made me smile the whole way through) but basically, this is me right now:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Who's the most Scummy???

Also,

I found nothing wrong in Khaan's reasoning about Scarlett and didn't like the other candidates so that's why I voted for her. In hindsight it wasn't wise.

Does tonight's write-up indicate that Scarlett was an important role?

Edse, which other options didn't you like at the time and why? Did you have any scum leans of your own?

I'll be reading through on and off as we drive, but I won't be able to make huge posts. GL!