Quote Originally Posted by Gilrandir View Post
Dardanellas is the southern one of the Straits. To move a fleet THROUGH it one has to either pass Bosphorus from the Black Sea or move northward from the Mediterranean. The first option is easily preventable by Turks and the second will mean moving Russian ships FROM the Mediterranean.
Yeah, I've should have written Bosphorus and Dardanelles, but regardless, one has to pass both to go from Black Sea to the Med or vice versa. So, the point still stands. Needless mental acrobatics on your part...

So you mean that Russia will say: "We wouldn't let anyone through Bosphorus. If you want to know why, ask Turkey"? That's rich. Denying everybody else access through THE TERRITORY OF A DIFFERENT COUNTRY? It would be one more argument in favor of Russia's stance.
Turkey is legally obliged to let Russian ships pass the straits unless officially at war. If the straits are closed, Russian ships can remain parked, waiting for the blockade to be lifted. Until they move, no one can pass. Since the Russian line will be "we're not blocking anything, were waiting to pass. We will move instantly when the passage is opened" and Turkish line will "we're not letting them pass, the straits remain closed" I can assure you everyone will blame Turkey.

All those are arbitrary conclusions/speculations prompted by a wishful thinking.
Possibly. This isn't an exact science, but regarding Russia, I've actually been right so far quite often, while your doom and gloom theories haven't came to pass.

We have been through with the invalid comparison. Kosovo was not annexed. Period.
Neither was Crimea. There was a plebiscite and people overwhelmingly decided to secede from Ukraine and join Russia.