SYRIA thread

[Brenus]

[QUOTE=Elmetiacos;2053744485 Unless the rebels somehow have a working chemical weapons plant which works to produce a different formulation from that used by the Syrian government, there's now way this Russian suggestion is possible.[/QUOTE]
Can buy it, no?

[Elmetiacos]

Can buy it, no?

Realistically, no.

[Brenus]

Realistically, no.

I don't know any weapon which can't bought... Or provided.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

I don't know any weapon which can't bought... Or provided.

And where would the rebels buy it, or who would provide it?

I suppose it's possible the gas was looted from a Syrian Army or Air Force depo at the start of the war and has been kept since then because in order to get rid of it the rebels would have to admit they had it.

However, that the equivalent of rebels in Russia looting nukes - which irrc never actually happened.

[Elmetiacos]

And where would the rebels buy it, or who would provide it?

I suppose it's possible the gas was looted from a Syrian Army or Air Force depo at the start of the war and has been kept since then because in order to get rid of it the rebels would have to admit they had it.

However, that the equivalent of rebels in Russia looting nukes - which irrc never actually happened.

This is the problem: pre-war Sarin created and stored in this way would have degraded and be useless by now. The only viable way to store it over such a length of time is by separating the chemical reagents into at least two separate parts which don't degrade as quickly. Bombing would therefore not release any lethal gas.

[Sarmatian]

And where would the rebels buy it, or who would provide it?

There have been talk of rebels smuggling gas from Iraq and Turkey since 2014. A photographed barrel which was allegedly used for a gas attack in 2014 had the words "Norinco" visible (Chinese arms manufacturer) on it. On its own, doesn't mean much, they may have just made the barrel, but there you have it... A lot of players with a lot of conflicting interests.

In the case of this attack, we basically still don't know anything. The conclusion that it was sarin is based on doctors' identification of the symptoms (although I would assume that shortness of breath and dizziness accompanies pretty much all gas attacks). Doctors also mentioned that victims "smelled of bleach" which would indicate chlorine.

Until OPCW conducts an investigation, all these real and quasi experts in the newspapers are guessing.

It is worth mentioning that all OPCW reports from 2013 onward identify Syrian government as fully cooperative.

[Montmorency]

I noted this a year ago, but it's interesting that there were a fair number of chemical attacks in the first half of 2014, and of 2015, while other than a relatively-big incident in Aleppo in 2016, it seemed to have petered out recently.

[Elmetiacos]

So the Syrian government would never make poison gas, but the Chinese, Iraqi and Turkish governments, they all would, and then they'd sell it to terrorists?

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

There have been talk of rebels smuggling gas from Iraq and Turkey since 2014. A photographed barrel which was allegedly used for a gas attack in 2014 had the words "Norinco" visible (Chinese arms manufacturer) on it. On its own, doesn't mean much, they may have just made the barrel, but there you have it... A lot of players with a lot of conflicting interests.

In the case of this attack, we basically still don't know anything. The conclusion that it was sarin is based on doctors' identification of the symptoms (although I would assume that shortness of breath and dizziness accompanies pretty much all gas attacks). Doctors also mentioned that victims "smelled of bleach" which would indicate chlorine.

Until OPCW conducts an investigation, all these real and quasi experts in the newspapers are guessing.

It is worth mentioning that all OPCW reports from 2013 onward identify Syrian government as fully cooperative.

Well, on the one hand you have this:

So the Syrian government would never make poison gas, but the Chinese, Iraqi and Turkish governments, they all would, and then they'd sell it to terrorists?

On the other hand, it seems the majority of attacks, the vast majority, have been directed at non-government forces. There are no records of confirmed Sarin attacks by rebels since 2013 which is consistent with looting supply dumps in the initial madness of the war. Since 2013 most attacks have been with Chlorine.

I suspect that the identification of Sarin in this case has a lot to do the reports immediately after the attack which mention nothing of odour.

In any case, there's no reason to believe it's not the regime.

It's also worth noting the Syrian Air Force continues to bomb the town - suggesting there's a reason they targeted it with gas, possible a high-value target has gone to ground there.