SYRIA thread

[Brenus]

Realistically, no.

I don't know any weapon which can't bought... Or provided.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

I don't know any weapon which can't bought... Or provided.

And where would the rebels buy it, or who would provide it?

I suppose it's possible the gas was looted from a Syrian Army or Air Force depo at the start of the war and has been kept since then because in order to get rid of it the rebels would have to admit they had it.

However, that the equivalent of rebels in Russia looting nukes - which irrc never actually happened.

[Elmetiacos]

And where would the rebels buy it, or who would provide it?

I suppose it's possible the gas was looted from a Syrian Army or Air Force depo at the start of the war and has been kept since then because in order to get rid of it the rebels would have to admit they had it.

However, that the equivalent of rebels in Russia looting nukes - which irrc never actually happened.

This is the problem: pre-war Sarin created and stored in this way would have degraded and be useless by now. The only viable way to store it over such a length of time is by separating the chemical reagents into at least two separate parts which don't degrade as quickly. Bombing would therefore not release any lethal gas.

[Sarmatian]

And where would the rebels buy it, or who would provide it?

There have been talk of rebels smuggling gas from Iraq and Turkey since 2014. A photographed barrel which was allegedly used for a gas attack in 2014 had the words "Norinco" visible (Chinese arms manufacturer) on it. On its own, doesn't mean much, they may have just made the barrel, but there you have it... A lot of players with a lot of conflicting interests.

In the case of this attack, we basically still don't know anything. The conclusion that it was sarin is based on doctors' identification of the symptoms (although I would assume that shortness of breath and dizziness accompanies pretty much all gas attacks). Doctors also mentioned that victims "smelled of bleach" which would indicate chlorine.

Until OPCW conducts an investigation, all these real and quasi experts in the newspapers are guessing.

It is worth mentioning that all OPCW reports from 2013 onward identify Syrian government as fully cooperative.

[Montmorency]

I noted this a year ago, but it's interesting that there were a fair number of chemical attacks in the first half of 2014, and of 2015, while other than a relatively-big incident in Aleppo in 2016, it seemed to have petered out recently.

[Elmetiacos]

So the Syrian government would never make poison gas, but the Chinese, Iraqi and Turkish governments, they all would, and then they'd sell it to terrorists?

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

There have been talk of rebels smuggling gas from Iraq and Turkey since 2014. A photographed barrel which was allegedly used for a gas attack in 2014 had the words "Norinco" visible (Chinese arms manufacturer) on it. On its own, doesn't mean much, they may have just made the barrel, but there you have it... A lot of players with a lot of conflicting interests.

In the case of this attack, we basically still don't know anything. The conclusion that it was sarin is based on doctors' identification of the symptoms (although I would assume that shortness of breath and dizziness accompanies pretty much all gas attacks). Doctors also mentioned that victims "smelled of bleach" which would indicate chlorine.

Until OPCW conducts an investigation, all these real and quasi experts in the newspapers are guessing.

It is worth mentioning that all OPCW reports from 2013 onward identify Syrian government as fully cooperative.

Well, on the one hand you have this:

So the Syrian government would never make poison gas, but the Chinese, Iraqi and Turkish governments, they all would, and then they'd sell it to terrorists?

On the other hand, it seems the majority of attacks, the vast majority, have been directed at non-government forces. There are no records of confirmed Sarin attacks by rebels since 2013 which is consistent with looting supply dumps in the initial madness of the war. Since 2013 most attacks have been with Chlorine.

I suspect that the identification of Sarin in this case has a lot to do the reports immediately after the attack which mention nothing of odour.

In any case, there's no reason to believe it's not the regime.

It's also worth noting the Syrian Air Force continues to bomb the town - suggesting there's a reason they targeted it with gas, possible a high-value target has gone to ground there.

[Brenus]

In any case, there's no reason to believe it's not the regime.

Believe? Double negation and a belief? And you bomb a country?
It was no reason not to believe that Saddam had WMD. Same for it was no reason not to believe that Milosevic was implementing Horse Shoes Operation in Kosovo, and throwing his victims in mines pits...
Yes, they could have done it. They just didn't, did they?
So until solid proof based on more reliable sources that the rebels doctors (by the way, where the white helmets? Did they vanished in the thin air?), we will not know what product was employed, and by whom... Find the munition/container used...

[Fragony]

Better question, how would Assad benefit from using it, pretty big decision to use that stuff. Rogue general perhaps? Assad is no fool he knows he would be internationally cast out by just about everyone. Trump's decision to attack that airport is questionable to say the least whatever what

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Believe? Double negation and a belief? And you bomb a country?

I'm not the one making the decisions. Given that up until this point Trump was willing to consider Assad part of the solution in Syria I have to think there's some credible intelligence that it was the regime, intelligence we don't have.

My point was that there's no reason to think the regime wouldn't use gas - they have in the past.

[Sarmatian]

So the Syrian government would never make poison gas, but the Chinese, Iraqi and Turkish governments, they all would, and then they'd sell it to terrorists?

Iraqi government would have little reason to sell the gas to terrorists, but the Iraqi government isn't in control of the whole of Iraq, or all of its military and other facilities.
Elements from Turkey which may or may not be connected to Turkish government have already proved to be capable of doing business with the terrorists, like buying and reselling their oil, providing them with supplies etc...

On the other hand, it seems the majority of attacks, the vast majority, have been directed at non-government forces.

1) majority of the attacks were against civilians
2) even if it was used against non government forces, that doesn't immediately spell that government forces did it. There are dozens of armed factions in the region, and they generally don't like each other.

There are no records of confirmed Sarin attacks by rebels since 2013 which is consistent with looting supply dumps in the initial madness of the war. Since 2013 most attacks have been with Chlorine.

Ok. No disagreements but I don't see how is that relevant for your argument.

I suspect that the identification of Sarin in this case has a lot to do the reports immediately after the attack which mention nothing of odour.

Actually, MSF doctors who treated the patients mentioned the smell of bleach. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/wo...-a7669011.html.

So, chlorine was most definitely used - there's no way of confusing chlorine with sarin as sarin is odorless.

Symptoms some of the patients had were consistent with a gas like sarin, and in fact MSF is suspecting that people were exposed to at least two different agents, which may give credence to the Russian story, that a bomb hit a workshop/storage.

In any case, there's no reason to believe it's not the regime.

I wouldn't be so sure. The last, and arguably most important piece of the puzzle is qui bono, as Frags mentioned.

Assad already agreed to surrender and destroy everything Syria had, and according to the OCPW the government of Syria was always fully cooperative (their Fact Finding Teams had more issues with rebels).
He did that because he was very aware of the potential consequences. To think that he was willing to destroy everything he had in storage and all production facilities and keep a minute amount hidden somewhere so that he could drop it out of spite, and invite western outrage all over again because...

... he is just that crazy?

The west was losing interest in the conflict and the new American president actually had some nice words (in between bad words) about his regime, so he got bored and decided it was more fun when western countries were actively considering military solution? He decided it was too easy, now that he controls most of Aleppo?

I'm having troubles believing Damascus ordered or even consented to this. A rogue commander is a possibility, though.

It's also worth noting the Syrian Air Force continues to bomb the town - suggesting there's a reason they targeted it with gas, possible a high-value target has gone to ground there.

It is also perfectly consistent with the story that they were bombing the area to defeat the rebels and they continue to bomb it because they still haven't done it, like with hundreds of other areas in Syria.