Of course mistakes can happen. But it would take a series of mistakes, followed by escalation, with NOBODY pulling back and saying 'hey wait a moment.'

Possible yes, but not probable at all.


Now, if we were in pre-World War One mode, with everyone looking for an excuse, then it might happen. Heck, even Europe worked through the war scares of 1905 and 1912 before they decided not to pull back from the brink in 1914, and they were primed for it.