Fighting erupts in Nagorno-Karabakh, dozens of casualties reported

**Lizardo** · 04-02-2016, 20:20

http://uk.reuters.com/article/us-nag...-idUKKCN0WZ07T

I suggest you TW.ogrers have a glance at a timeline of the conflict in question to base yourself in.

Ok this is purely speculation, as you may know Turkey and Azerbaijan both share a common Turkic identity, heritage and language. The increasing Turkish sphere of influence in the caucases is at odds with Russia's as a staunch ally of Armenia, Russia has recently increased the number of Russian troops along the turkish border to 7,000 and has secured a joint Air defence system. Russia did also have a Military prescence in Azerbaijan at Gabala Radar Station but the contract lasted until 2012 and Azerbaijan refused further negotiations.

(even more specualtion) This maybe Erdogan's first move to embroil Armenia in a war with Azerbaijan, therefore weakening Armenias military slightly offsetting the power balance in the region and giving Erdogan the premise to increase influence over Azerbaijan aswell as Military support for it. EDIT: this may lead to Russian involvement embroiling them in yet another conflict they may or may not afford, This depends on the further escalation. And I believe this could be premeditated instigation by NATO and Turkey and Azerbaijan knowing that Russia is preoccupied with Syria and Ukraine this would be a great oppurunity to strike as Russia will be hesitant.

I have few theories of what this could mean and how it might play out but worse case scenario is you see an Armenian incursion to form a corridor linking the Nargono-Karabakh exclave with Armenia proper or an Armenian retaliation in to the Azeri exclave known as Nakchevan bordering itself and Iran.

I'm also assuming most know about the ethnic displacements during Communism, the Ottoman empire and the Soviet Dissolution and Independence wars thereafter. The international Community does not recognise the Armenian Nagorno-Karabkh Republic and believes it is Sovereign Azerbaijani territory however the Azerbaijani exclave bordering Iran and Armenia called Nackihevan is recognized as Azerbaijani.

Whatever happens I believe Turkey and Russia will be involved and watching vehemently. And most likely a premise for extended Turkish influence in the Caucases through Georgia and Azerbaijan and perhaps finally have a foreign Military base in Azerbaijan.

Would be great if there was a Rome II style Strategic overview set to Political mode to distinguish hostilities. I do know the border between Azerbaijan and Russia is a no go zone.

Russian Military Bases in the Southern Caucases: