Claiming this to not be the case, just FYI.Originally Posted by Askthepizzaguy
I am vanilla town
Re: IKEA mafia [In Play]
Claiming this to not be the case, just FYI.
I am vanilla town
Re: IKEA mafia [In Play]
Also agree that if we get to f5 with pizza and golden still alive that we lynch in them.
Re: IKEA mafia [In Play]
Yeah, which is problem number 57 in claiming masons with your mafia buddy on day 1.
It necessarily always makes you and your partner die. Gambling your one remaining partner (or two?) this game doesn't get lynched or shot is silly stuff.
Essentially, it makes it so (in a 3 person team) town only needs to correctly find one whole scumbag on their own merits.
I do off the wall stuff as scum but it's always to win the game. This tactic is team-destroying and I never set out to destroy my team at square one of a new game, as town or scum.
If I take a gamble it's usually to save a scummy partner, because that's more likely to win a game because it's too wolfy to be a wolf.
Like, that's why me saving Punisher legitimately looks bad for me in a vacuum. That's a move I'd make as scum. It's only the masonry saving my ass this game.
Last edited by Askthepizzaguy; 04-19-2016 at 12:27.
#Winstontoostrong
#Montytoostronger
Re: IKEA mafia [In Play]
I have hopefully game solving analysis coming in a few mins.
#Winstontoostrong
#Montytoostronger
Re: IKEA mafia [In Play]
Why did you say punisher was your buddy first?
Re: IKEA mafia [In Play]
vote: edse it is the only case that makes sense to me at thia time, and I'd really like to avoid dying today. I am vanilla town as well.
Always meet on the level, act by the plumb and part on the square.
2B1ASK1
Re: IKEA mafia [In Play]
My estimation was in a game this small, most of the players would be vanilla. Drawing a murder onto a vanilla townie that otherwise cannot clear himself (Punisher being a low-poster, unlikely to draw a murder or clear himself otherwise) and one I could plausibly claim as a partner too.
How else would I know he's villager? Mason partner or peek only. So after I die, mafia should have always murdered Punisher.
Idea was:
1) Draw murder to me, away from the town vigilante.
2) In so doing, convince the mafia that Punisher was my mason buddy, keeping Golden1Knight alive.
3) Once Punisher-villager dies, Golden1Knight hard claims, getting a mason deep into the game, possibly endgame, with proof of masonry.strongly and repeatedly breadcrumbed.
4) I also strongly hinted for the vigilante to NOT shoot inside the low posters and I aggressively tried to lynch everyone who tried to divert the lynch in that direction.
I didn't know Punisher was scum. But even in such an event, our mason claim fixes the problem of me looking bad from that mistake.
It was a gamble and even in the bad scenario town does ok. Visor and myself and G1K survived N1 and N2.
Surprised the scums didn't shoot into us. If they did, they were bus driven.
But edse has basically hard claimed not town bus driver. And no one else has claimed town bus driver.
As such, edse is the scum bus driver.
Analysis shows....
#Winstontoostrong
#Montytoostronger
Re: IKEA mafia [In Play]
At start of day 2, we're now aware there's a vigilante, and a now known-townie is voting for El Barto straight off the bat. How does the scum react?
Not a great look for Edse here. So is El Barto bussing GH on day 1 and day 2?
((Aside:
Spoiler Alert, click show to read:
Based on my behavior thus far, and the facts known to the uninformed, this is a reasonable line of attack against me. One that would occur to a villager a lot, in my opinion. PIS based on the claims I was making is a legitimate tinfoil. Especially after I hard claimed not being mason after saying I'd never reverse. This reaction seems genuine and could be alignment-indicating for GH. He's asking questions and it looks like it is solving because although he suspects me, it looks like he is also strongly considering the possibility I'm my usual lying villager self.
His question in the third quote SEEKS INFORMATION useful to determining my alignment, reasonably.
Is GH good enough to fake this? Of course he is, that's why he's this year's champion. But it reads genuine to me, assuming you can read him this game, it reads one way- the villagery way.))
Back to the main point.
Look at where BSmith is voting.
El Barto is talking to Punisher here.
It looks like atheotes is villager here. I don't see Bart making this post if atheotes is the third scum.
Visor implores Punisher (mat) to place the third vote on El Barto in a close tally. Not willing to bus, Punisher obv refuses.
Now look here:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...post2053693833
There are two votes on scum Barto, and edse is reacting to my mason claim and questioning me.
This question is not solving for village.How do you know that Punisher isn't the vig?
mason claims. Says this gamble took place regarding Punisher.
Punisher hasn't been revealed to be mafia yet. Punisher isn't the vig, of course, but how did I know that?
I didn't know that. Why would anyone think I knew that?
It was a guess, a shot in the dark.
Even if you legitimately thought I knew that somehow, why are you fishing a claimed mason for more information?
This question is something a scumbag asks in order to look like solving. Compare it to the question quoted earlier that GH posed me.
The two questions serve different purposes. One doesn't know if I'm town or scum, and comes coupled with a vote and real looking suspicion.
Edse's question doesn't come with a vote, but looks like it is seeking information a villager doesn't need to solve the game. And it is also a question that is posed as suspicion, not curiosity. If you believe I'm a mason you're not asking me to out why someone isn't a vigilante if you believe I have such data. So the question can only be meant to doubt me and cast doubt on me in a critical moment.
Doesn't want to be lynched obviously. Wants to look like a villager here I guess, faking unconcern with his own life.
This is the strategy of a mafia team who is not anti-bussing. Anti-bussing mafia teams don't self-vote, because that's even less useful than bussing is.
Is Al Sipsclar mafia here? Doubtful. He snapped up Visor's call to arms.
El Barto the villager should never be self-voting here, because he needs to be providing vigilante cover.
That's why I, a fricking mason, was willing to try to provide vigilante cover by claiming vig right off the bat on d2.
Because the vig is most valuable player on the town side. The vig knows for a fact I'm lying and it's probably to draw the murder onto me, because I could have sold that, I had beef with Zack this game. I am also always always always a murder this game as a mason, so deciding to die before the vigilante is ALWAYS good for village, because it gives village more vigilante shots.
But a vanilla townie who knows there's likely a vigilante should never be self-voting, because that tells the mafia team he's not the vig.
It's terrible, and Visor and several others are voting him and calling for his head.
So, what does the scum team do? Does Punisher bus him? Does edse answer Visor's direct call to arms?
I suspect El Barto is vanilla townie or scum now. So more info is needed
Let's see where he votes IF I toss him a life-line.
Out of everyone here, El Barto's choicest lynch is GH, who was under heavy suspicion this game and is a plausible mislynch.
Or this is a bus.
Do you think it's a bus?
Spoiler Alert, click show to read:
Now what is the vote count?
Al Sips mafia here? GH mafia here?
What about Raith Kemmler?
Possible.
We know it wasn't double a.
Double A hero shats Punisher with the above vote count, making it a way tie.
How does the scum react?
Stalling, waiting for town to screw this up.
This can be scummy for Al Sipsclar, because it saves El Barto and Punisher. But compare it to earlier stuff which is villagery.
And if you buy that theory......................... then what was Punisher doing? Voting a fellow mafioso when El Barto is under threat AND Visor was calling for more votes on El Barto?
Seems like an odd play for scums.
Edse just hangin' out watching the round unfold.
This is the move. This is the move which edse claims makes him a villager.
Ok. Kudos, the tie is now 3-3-2-2 etc. That means there's a 50/50 chance Punisher dies here.
I didn't like this vote change because there's 20 minutes left in the round, and Edse's move looked like a mafia twitch to me.
Perhaps to save one of the vote getters that had 2 votes, or to try to save a scum Double A. I didn't know.
But I felt like whatever Edse's move was, it was a scum move, so I countered it automatically.
Sorry about that, AA.
Once I counter that vote, edse says nothing and lets the clock run out.
-----------------------------------
So right now, Edse and Raith Kemmler look the worst. Raith only because the scums didn't hop on him to save themselves at one point, but it wasn't strictly necessary.
Meanwhile, this is stuff edse says overnight:
Yeah feels like scum taunting, not real banter.
Next day
Visor has no reason to lie here, so a bus driver is likely, and it would be a scum bus driver, since no one claimed town bus driver.
And again, EB is trying to lynch GH. This doesn't win for scums.
Al and atheotes look okay from these votes.
Me not buying that the Punisher vote clears edse. Anyone can "bus" when it's only a 50/50 chance your low posting partner even dies.
Strategies I use when I'm mafia.
GH does not go for El Barto wagon.
At this point, edse should be the deepest wolf if he is one. So his reaction is utter befuddlement.
Instant defense.
This is what edse thought would help him skate to endgame.
Where's his vote on El Barto in this situation?
Except it was true.
Which is a hard claim of an information role, or that Edse is the mafia bus driver.
Because a town bus driver would know that Visor was telling the truth.
Edse cannot claim town bus driver here plausibly, and tracker or watcher results would be solving, so they should be offered. No reason not to.
Desperation maneuver when the deepest wolf is getting lynched instead of El Barto.
Edse can't bus El Barto after Punisher, and then expect to survive the game.
This was a hail mary to save El Barto.
Edse defending his garbage claim.
Where's edse's vote on El Barto?
It's exactly Raith or edse at this point, and edse's garbage claim condemns him 100 times more than Raith.
Always lynch edse here barring an extraordinary claim.
#Winstontoostrong
#Montytoostronger
Re: IKEA mafia [In Play]
So that's TL;DR stuff.
BOTTOM LINE:
Edse is suggesting he's clear for tying Punisher with Double A.
Meanwhile, other players have been pushing El Barto hard for most of the game, and edse basically refused to lynch El Barto when it was obvious that needed to happen next after Punisher died. Why aren't those other players clear-er than Edse?
His claim that Visor was lying is proven false unless there's a scum bus driver, since a town one has not claimed.
Given the two flips so far, edse can be the scum bus driver himself, or a tracker or watcher. But is refusing to out such data and I won't believe it until he dies and flips villager at this point.
GH looks like the scum's lynch target a lot, and the GH-Barto interaction looks great for GH. Barto tries to get GH to talk to him but GH is busy solving instead.
Edse's move to accuse Visor of lying just looks like an attempt to save Barto and himself at the same time, since edse had 4 votes at the time of the claim.
Plan must have been to bus Punisher, but when the "deep wolf" was next on the chopping block, El Barto under heavy suspicion, there's only one move, try to save both Edse and El Barto.
It doesn't work, El Barto still dies, and Edse is left with an indefensible claim.
Game over.
Last edited by Askthepizzaguy; 04-19-2016 at 12:51.
#Winstontoostrong
#Montytoostronger
Re: IKEA mafia [In Play]
I dont see GH being in danger on D1 neither do i find Edse scummy based on D1 activity...
Re: IKEA mafia [In Play]
It's also partly a Process of Elimination.
Who else can be El Barto and Punisher's partner?
I have it down to Raith as the most likely and I still doubt it. Literally everyone else in the game looks good due to their interactions with dead scum.
Edse's claim of special info seems bogus and always needs to be resolved.
#Winstontoostrong
#Montytoostronger
Re: IKEA mafia [In Play]
Keep reading.
#Winstontoostrong
#Montytoostronger
Re: IKEA mafia [In Play]
Yeah...you just made it difficult.
Anyways, just skimmed through bcos i got to go shortly, regarding the bus driver:
if he is town, he must have claimed by now. So it seems unlikely.
If he is scum, why would he direct the hit from GH onto Punisher?
Hence my vote on GH.
Re: IKEA mafia [In Play]
A bus driver works both ways.Yeah...you just made it difficult.
Anyways, just skimmed through bcos i got to go shortly, regarding the bus driver:
if he is town, he must have claimed by now. So it seems unlikely.
If he is scum, why would he direct the hit from GH onto Punisher?
Hence my vote on GH.
If the idea is that Visor shot GH, and the shot landed on Punisher, then why is edse claiming that Visor shot johnhughthom that night?
That's impossible.
That would mean the following:
Visor claims to have shot GH, and JHT and Punisher died.
So if Visor is telling the truth (assume this to start with)
Then
The scum bus driver (since no town bus driver has claimed) sent in the following action:
Bus drive GeneralHankerchief with Punisher. Shots on GH then land on Punisher. That's the ONLY WAY Visor shoots GH and ends up on Punisher. And that would make GeneralHankerchief the scum bus driver exactly. And there's little to no advantage to bus driving himself with Punisher. What's the point? The idea is to deflect Vig shots ONTO townies, not from one scum to another.
And that would make edse a town information role of some kind. Assume edse is telling the truth.
So, why is edse claiming that Visor shot Johnhughthom?
In order for that to be true, the mafia team shot Punisher themselves deliberately.
You never lynch GH here.
You lynch Edse and then if he's a villager with a special power role of some kind that could possibly explain this mess, then you can lynch GH.
But the bottom line is that there's no way this can occur except with a scum bus driver, and given Visor has flipped, that bus driver and the liar in question is always edse, not GH.
Do you follow? This is complicated but the bottom line is, in order for edse to be telling the truth, Visor has to be lying, and he's a dead town vig.
Last edited by Askthepizzaguy; 04-19-2016 at 13:37.
#Winstontoostrong
#Montytoostronger
Re: IKEA mafia [In Play]
There is a nexus role (on other forums like the one sooh comes from) that can randomize your shot if you shoot that player, and then it would always be GH.
But, edse is claiming to know Visor shot JHT. So, the scums again shot Punisher themselves deliberately.
It's always a lie.
#Winstontoostrong
#Montytoostronger
Re: IKEA mafia [In Play]
I think that exhaustively proves it, but I've missed stuff before in like, dethy games. 100% brute force analysis solve by me is sometimes sloppy but I think this holds.
Edse says visor shot JHT which means someone else shot a mafioso and I never believe that with all the claimed vanillas and masons.
The game is over unless edse has a partner alive.
So, who is that partner?
#Winstontoostrong
#Montytoostronger
Re: IKEA mafia [In Play]
The problem with you claiming punisher as your partner is if you died with the claim, we wouldn't believe your partner was anyone else, and they would effectively becone vanilla.
Re: IKEA mafia [In Play]
Another reason for the gh/punisher bus driver idea is if punisher got viewed, he would come up town.
Assuming gh is town ofc, which I am.
Re: IKEA mafia [In Play]
I think they swapped gh and punisher, shot John, and blamed visor for John's death.
Re: IKEA mafia [In Play]
Spoiler Alert, click show to read:
Unofficial Vote count:
BSmith (2) - GeneralHankerchief, Golden1Knight
edse (4) - Askthepizzaguy, Al Sipsclar, Raith Kemmler, Eldrick
GeneralHankerchief (1) - atheotes
Not voting: BSmith, edse
(You're welcome, Sooh)
Re: IKEA mafia [In Play]
I gambled against that, and I didn't think it was much of a gamble. I told Golden1Knight exactly what the breadcrumbs were in all the posts I breadcrumbed.
So, he would know exactly which posts were linking back to him as my partner, immediately after I died, and revealed to be a mason.
I know towns are silly sometimes, but armed with that data (I think most of the players in the game didn't even read it, but it's stuff that always always always locks him in as my partner....) they'd never lynch G1K.
Theres like five different clues which only point to him out of everyone.
#Winstontoostrong
#Montytoostronger
Re: IKEA mafia [In Play]
Occam says this is the case.
Every villager needs to be very clear from this point forward that they had nothing to do with the murder directions that night, no bus drivers, and nothing which verifies edse's story.
If that's the case, it's game or edse's partner needs to go tomorrow.
#Winstontoostrong
#Montytoostronger
Re: IKEA mafia [In Play]
Unvote: BSmith
Vote: edse
I wish I had something more to add, but that's a pretty thorough analysis and the reasoning seems tight on the first glance.
"I'm going to die anyway, and therefore have nothing more to do except deliberately annoy Lemur." -Orb, in the chat
"Lemur. Even if he's innocent, he's a pain; so kill him." -Ignoramus
"I'm going to need to collect all of the rants about the guilty lemur, and put them in a pretty box with ponies and pink bows. Then I'm going to sprinkle sparkly magic dust on the box, and kiss it." -Lemur
Mafia: Promoting peace and love since June 2006
Re: IKEA mafia [In Play]
Completely forgot that you could plan it with your partner. Duh.
Re: IKEA mafia [In Play]
I want to know these at some point btw.
Post game if you insist.
Re: IKEA mafia [In Play]
I think he posted them earlier in the thread. The only one I can definitively remember is him giving a list of players, and he used nicknames for everyone except Golden. It's definitely there, which is why I'm inclined to take it at face value.
Might've been right before/around the time you subbed in.
"I'm going to die anyway, and therefore have nothing more to do except deliberately annoy Lemur." -Orb, in the chat
"Lemur. Even if he's innocent, he's a pain; so kill him." -Ignoramus
"I'm going to need to collect all of the rants about the guilty lemur, and put them in a pretty box with ponies and pink bows. Then I'm going to sprinkle sparkly magic dust on the box, and kiss it." -Lemur
Mafia: Promoting peace and love since June 2006
Re: IKEA mafia [In Play]
It's all public I can quote it for you again, brb
#Winstontoostrong
#Montytoostronger
Re: IKEA mafia [In Play]
Pizza:
If I'm reading correctly, you've got BSmith cleared mostly because he hadn't voted at the time of the damning tally on D2, right?
I'm not so sure if that's enough to toss him in the "cleared" pile, not being around to vote is pretty much null for me. Plus that post from yesterday still looks very bad.
"I'm going to die anyway, and therefore have nothing more to do except deliberately annoy Lemur." -Orb, in the chat
"Lemur. Even if he's innocent, he's a pain; so kill him." -Ignoramus
"I'm going to need to collect all of the rants about the guilty lemur, and put them in a pretty box with ponies and pink bows. Then I'm going to sprinkle sparkly magic dust on the box, and kiss it." -Lemur
Mafia: Promoting peace and love since June 2006
Re: IKEA mafia [In Play]
He's one of the least clear. I got him as a villager lean based on his total participation.
it's not strong, but his vote pattern kills mafia and in a way that doesn't earn him a ton of credit to survive in endgame.
#Winstontoostrong
#Montytoostronger
Re: IKEA mafia [In Play]
Fair enough, I saw his name associated with blue text that one time and not much more.
"I'm going to die anyway, and therefore have nothing more to do except deliberately annoy Lemur." -Orb, in the chat
"Lemur. Even if he's innocent, he's a pain; so kill him." -Ignoramus
"I'm going to need to collect all of the rants about the guilty lemur, and put them in a pretty box with ponies and pink bows. Then I'm going to sprinkle sparkly magic dust on the box, and kiss it." -Lemur
Mafia: Promoting peace and love since June 2006
Posting Permissions
Reply With Quote
Bookmarks