This speculation may be considered plausible if it was Azerbaijan who started the shooting. But the reports on the starter are contradictory with either side blaming the opposite. If it was Armenia we might as well speculate on Putin trying to increase his local influence and offset that of Turkey after he got Syria off his hands (if he even did).
I may be mistaken, but I think the international community recognizes the borders of the ex-Soviet states if they coincide with their administrative borders within the USSR. Thus Transdnistria, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Crimea and Donbas are not recognized (either as separate states or as having changed hands). Before the collapse of the USSR Nagorny Karabakh was an autonomous region within Azerbaijan as well as Nakhichevan (which had a higher status as an autonomous republic). That is why (I assume) both are internationally considered parts of Azerbaijan now.
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