Brexit Thread

[Fragony]

An economic expert is someone who can explain why his predictions were wrong. It's all guess-work they should shutup

[Pannonian]

An economic expert is someone who can explain why his predictions were wrong. It's all guess-work they should shutup

One of the predictions can safely said to be guaranteed though. The bigger party in a negotiation holds the whip hand over the smaller party. Especially if the smaller party starts with a bad hand and has a limited amount of time to negotiate. Once article 50 is invoked, beginning the negotiations of the UK's exit, that is the UK's position relative to the EU. The UK will have a limited amount of time (2 years) in which to negotiate new trade deals with the EU, or else be left with the default WTO conditions that no exporter in the UK wants. As an example of the disparities, something like 5% of Germany's exports are to the UK, which can be swallowed up in the overall EU economy, or else find another market elsewhere, which the size of the EU makes it easy to do. In contrast, 50% of the UK's exports are to the EU. If we can't compete, then we'll need to find another market for these goods, and the biggest markets will dwarf the UK, thus worsening any trade deals that we can expect.

No economic predictions, merely a comparison of size and power, and why unions hold more power than fragmented individuals. Is this disputable? Yet this is the position that we've got ourselves into.

[Fragony]

One of the predictions can safely said to be guaranteed though. The bigger party in a negotiation holds the whip hand over the smaller party. Especially if the smaller party starts with a bad hand and has a limited amount of time to negotiate. Once article 50 is invoked, beginning the negotiations of the UK's exit, that is the UK's position relative to the EU. The UK will have a limited amount of time (2 years) in which to negotiate new trade deals with the EU, or else be left with the default WTO conditions that no exporter in the UK wants. As an example of the disparities, something like 5% of Germany's exports are to the UK, which can be swallowed up in the overall EU economy, or else find another market elsewhere, which the size of the EU makes it easy to do. In contrast, 50% of the UK's exports are to the EU. If we can't compete, then we'll need to find another market for these goods, and the biggest markets will dwarf the UK, thus worsening any trade deals that we can expect.

No economic predictions, merely a comparison of size and power, and why unions hold more power than fragmented individuals. Is this disputable? Yet this is the position that we've got ourselves into.

Sounds easy to solve to me, make a deal with the Netherlands and use it as a proxy.A nexit is unrealistic no matter how much I would like to see it, but the possibility of a nexit is a sword of Damocles hanging over all major industry-zones in Europe. They'll be nice. Haven't you noticed a complete lack of actual powerplay, only fearmoning rhetoric. You guys are safe, might hurt a bit but not for long, year or so

[Pannonian]

Sounds easy to solve to me, make a deal with the Netherlands and use it as a proxy.A nexit is unrealistic no matter how much I would like to see it, but the possibility of a nexit is a sword of Damocles hanging over all major industry-zones in Europe. They'll be nice. Haven't you noticed a complete lack of actual powerplay, only fearmoning rhetoric. You guys are safe, might hurt a bit but not for long, year or so

A country within the EU cannot unilaterally make a deal with a country outside the EU. The EU makes deals as a bloc. When Switzerland tried to pick and choose, the EU told it to accept the basic deal as the foundation, or else skedaddle. Four freedoms or no access to the single market. The referendum was, in the Leave voters' minds, fundamentally about one of those freedoms.

As for lack of powerplay, that's because the EU position is that there will be no negotiations until article 50 is invoked. So there will be no deals until we invoke the ticking clock. And even without invoking the formal exit article, our economy is already rolling off a cliff. It'll be a straight drop when we do invoke it. Everyone who will be negotiating knows this.

"A nexit is unrealistic no matter how much I would like to see it"
Which is why exit-mongering from a distance as you did is irresponsible and disgusting. Like I said before the referendum, you get to see the results, but you don't have to pay the price.

[Fragony]

"A nexit is unrealistic no matter how much I would like to see it"
Which is why exit-mongering from a distance as you did is irresponsible and disgusting. Like I said before the referendum, you get to see the results, but you don't have to pay the price.

A nexit is unrealistic because despite the Freedom-party being by far the biggest party in polls nobody will coorperate with them, it's not impossible because it will have consequences, we can't even handle the demand as it is Rotterdam-harbour would have to be twice as big, it going to take at least 50 years before others can even muse about catching up. It's all politics.

As for the rest I think you are overly pessimistic

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Four freedoms or no access to the single market. The referendum was, in the Leave voters' minds, fundamentally about one of those freedoms.

No it bloody well wasn't - as IA already pointed out, immigration was not the most prevalent reason for voting Leave so stop banging that bloody drum.

As to not invoking Article 50 - the EU has refused to negotiate at all unless we invoke it and now the big powers, after a week, are saying we can't negotiate a trade deal without first negotiating an exit deal - which begs the question of what the point of an exit deal is.

At the same time our MEPs have been sent home, our Prime Minister is excluded from EU talks and our commissioner has resigned.

It's very clear at this point that we're going to be forced to invoke Article 50, regardless of an election or a change in public opinion.

[Pannonian]

No it bloody well wasn't - as IA already pointed out, immigration was not the most prevalent reason for voting Leave so stop banging that bloody drum.

As to not invoking Article 50 - the EU has refused to negotiate at all unless we invoke it and now the big powers, after a week, are saying we can't negotiate a trade deal without first negotiating an exit deal - which begs the question of what the point of an exit deal is.

At the same time our MEPs have been sent home, our Prime Minister is excluded from EU talks and our commissioner has resigned.

It's very clear at this point that we're going to be forced to invoke Article 50, regardless of an election or a change in public opinion.

And at that point, we'll have 2 years to negotiate a new trade deal with the EU, where 50% of our exports go, or default to WTO trade conditions. How long did Canada and the EU take to agree on a trade deal? 7 years wasn't it?

[Fragony]

And at that point, we'll have 2 years to negotiate a new trade deal with the EU, where 50% of our exports go, or default to WTO trade conditions. How long did Canada and the EU take to agree on a trade deal? 7 years wasn't it?

These deals will come, the UK is way to important to dismiss, especially as a Nato-partner for anyone involved. Do you think it's a coincidemce that the eurpian commision is suddenly talking to Erdogan's Turkey, that's desperation. Clueless and in panic. Just call their bluff.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

And at that point, we'll have 2 years to negotiate a new trade deal with the EU, where 50% of our exports go, or default to WTO trade conditions. How long did Canada and the EU take to agree on a trade deal? 7 years wasn't it?

Ah, no.

You must have missed the article I quoted.

We have two years to negotiate an Exit, then they'll let us negotiate on trade.

Allegedly.

[HopAlongBunny]

One of the predictions can safely said to be guaranteed though. The bigger party in a negotiation holds the whip hand over the smaller party..

That is why I doubt Article 50 gets invoked any time soon...if at all.
The UK just has too much to lose.