Brexit Thread

[Gilrandir]

Meanwhile up north...
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...erendum-brexit
Winter is coming?

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Meanwhile up north...
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...erendum-brexit
Winter is coming?

If I were Scotland I would wait until after the UK exits the EU - the EU has already made it clear that Scotland has to leave with the UK, then possibly leave the UK and rejoin the EU. If, once exit is completed, the Scots feel they want to leave the UK they should have that option, but not before. Holding a Referendum next year will divert a lot of political resources from the EU exit to the Referendum and if Scotland DOES leave the UK it will find itself outside both the UK and EU - without any trade relationship with either.

The Scottish position is somewhat childish at the moment anyway, trying to cling to the doorframe whilst the rest of the UK tries to drag them to the exit. What's moor, it's foolhardy. If Scotland insists on holding a Referendum on leaving the UK so that it can remain in the EU what happens to those parts of Scotland (and there likely will be some) that vote to remain part of the UK? Will Scotland try to drag those parts out of the UK like it is being dragged out of the EU?

[Pannonian]

If I were Scotland I would wait until after the UK exits the EU - the EU has already made it clear that Scotland has to leave with the UK, then possibly leave the UK and rejoin the EU. If, once exit is completed, the Scots feel they want to leave the UK they should have that option, but not before. Holding a Referendum next year will divert a lot of political resources from the EU exit to the Referendum and if Scotland DOES leave the UK it will find itself outside both the UK and EU - without any trade relationship with either.

The Scottish position is somewhat childish at the moment anyway, trying to cling to the doorframe whilst the rest of the UK tries to drag them to the exit. What's poor, it's foolhardy. If Scotland insists on holding a Referendum on leaving the UK so that it can remain in the EU what happens to those parts of Scotland (and there likely will be some) that vote to remain part of the UK? Will Scotland try to drag those parts out of the UK like it is being dragged out of the EU?

It's not much more childish or foolhardy than Brexit. Canada with 300 specialist trade negotiators took 7 years to negotiate a trade deal with the EU. The UK currently has 0 specialist trade negotiators, and little idea what qualities are involved for such a position (according to civil servants who are recruiting for that role). Once we hit article 50, we have 2 years to negotiate a deal before WTO tariffs apply, on which our exports instantly become uncompetitive in a market where 50% of our exports go.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

It's not much more childish or foolhardy than Brexit. Canada with 300 specialist trade negotiators took 7 years to negotiate a trade deal with the EU. The UK currently has 0 specialist trade negotiators, and little idea what qualities are involved for such a position (according to civil servants who are recruiting for that role). Once we hit article 50, we have 2 years to negotiate a deal before WTO tariffs apply, on which our exports instantly become uncompetitive in a market where 50% of our exports go.

According to members of the EU Commission we have two years to negotiate an exit - THEN we negotiate a trade deal. I covered this a few pages back but you either skipped over it or are choosing to ignore it. Now, maybe they'll break their own rules (this is the EU) and negotiate a trade deal, but if that's the case they'll likely extend the 2-year deadline if needed.

As far as Trade Negotiators go - we don't have zero, we have an unknown number. It all depends on how many UK-born EU Commission Negotiators decide to come home to Blighty and how many seek asylum as political refugees in France - I'm half-joking.

Also - apparently Parliament was told by a Civil Servant we have 20 Trade Negotiators in the Foreign Office:

http://indy100.independent.co.uk/art...s--ZyxdleNdBrW

Clearly this is a problem, the most likely solution is that we'll borrow them from Australia and Canada, they being our largest and friendliest allies with government departments devoted to Trade.

[Gilrandir]

Both major parties have sizable support in all 46 states and the 4 commonwealths. Admittedly, when you are the 30% in Alabama who are Democrat, the 60% who are GOP do end up running most of things so it can FEEL like a one party approach.

Yet I hear "this state traditionally votes for Republicans" as often as not.

if Scotland DOES leave the UK it will find itself outside both the UK and EU - without any trade relationship with either.

If Scotland hurries up to hold the referendum while the UK is still within the EU, it will stay within the EU.

The Scottish position is somewhat childish at the moment anyway, trying to cling to the doorframe whilst the rest of the UK tries to drag them to the exit.

Or we may say that the UK behaves childishly trying to make the WHOLE family leave Granny's place because it found no candy in the jar. Just a different perspective.

What's poor, it's foolhardy. If Scotland insists on holding a Referendum on leaving the UK so that it can remain in the EU what happens to those parts of Scotland (and there likely will be some) that vote to remain part of the UK? Will Scotland try to drag those parts out of the UK like it is being dragged out of the EU?

Again a different perspective. Right now it also seems that the UK is dragging away the parts of it that voted against it.

Evidently, Scotland has a separate identity which allows it to take such steps being sure it will stay united. After all, it did stay united after the Scottish referendum, the loser side acquiescing to the result. Seeing the uproar caused by the Brexit referendum it may take precautions against any cessation attempts within Scotland.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

If Scotland hurries up to hold the referendum while the UK is still within the EU, it will stay within the EU.

Spain has already said it will Veto such a move - several other European countries have active independence movements they do not want to encourage by making it easy for secessionists to gain access to the EU and the Common Market. At the same time there's no real incentive to let Scotland in quickly, an Independent Scotland would be a small country with a number of quite poor regions requiring EU support, it would have a small economy, an at best average per-Capita GDP and the EU would be on the hook to support this new nation without the big cheque that used to come from the UK every month.

At the same time it would greatly antagonise whatever was left of the UK and might increase secessionist violence in Northern Ireland, for which the UK would blame the EU.

So I'd put that under "possible but not likely".

Or we may say that the UK behaves childishly trying to make the WHOLE family leave Granny's place because it found no candy in the jar. Just a different perspective.

We could - but the reality is the UK as a whole has decided to leave, and Scotland is part of the UK - it is not an independent country and the other EU nations have refused to negotiate with it as such.

Again a different perspective. Right now it also seems that the UK is dragging away the parts of it that voted against it.

Ah, you miss my point, which is this: Scotland is claiming it is being dragged out "against its will" which is a somewhat foolish claim to make if you plan to have an Independence Referendum of your own. It's unlikely every region of Scotland will vote to leave the UK - while most voted to stay in the last Referendum (except parts of Glasgow) there was a wide variation. A 10%, possibly even a 20% swing , would see regions of Scotland like the Borders and Isles vote to remain part of the UK:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scotti...ferendum,_2014

Evidently, Scotland has a separate identity which allows it to take such steps being sure it will stay united. After all, it did stay united after the Scottish referendum, the loser side acquiescing to the result. Seeing the uproar caused by the Brexit referendum it may take precautions against any cessation attempts within Scotland.

The difference last time was that there was a 10-point margin in the vote and only a very small number of regions voted to beak away, so the yes side lost decisively. If the Yes side wins narrowly and a significant number of regions, like the Borders and the Isles, vote to stay, then Scotland cannot secede cleanly, they would either have to let those regions go or (more likely) hold further Referenda asking them if they want to stay part of Scotland or stay part of the UK.

Basically, if the second Scotland Referendum has a similar result to the EU Referendum then the Scottish government has the same problem with their regions as the UK Government has with Scotland right now.

[Greyblades]

Also - apparently Parliament was told by a Civil Servant we have 20 Trade Negotiators in the Foreign Office:

I wonder what the educational requirments are for Trade negociator.

[Idaho]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-36803544

Knee jerks? People who have a limbic response to social issues?

[Greyblades]

Christ, for a second there I was starting agree with the politicians want to defund the BBC, I feel disgusting.

[Gilrandir]

Spain has already said it will Veto such a move - several other European countries have active independence movements they do not want to encourage by making it easy for secessionists to gain access to the EU and the Common Market.

Merkel has a way of talking people into what she wants. So the question is whether she does.

At the same time there's no real incentive to let Scotland in quickly, an Independent Scotland would be a small country with a number of quite poor regions requiring EU support, it would have a small economy, an at best average per-Capita GDP and the EU would be on the hook to support this new nation without the big cheque that used to come from the UK every month.

Why does the UK need such a nuisance then? Let them go!

But on the other hand, the EU had accepted even poorer countries, so it won't be a problem once the EU sets its mind on it.

At the same time it would greatly antagonise whatever was left of the UK and might increase secessionist violence in Northern Ireland, for which the UK would blame the EU.

Judging by the EU's rhetorics ("get out quicker if you want it so much") it doesn't bother the EU, still less it bothers Scotland.

We could - but the reality is the UK as a whole has decided to leave, and Scotland is part of the UK - it is not an independent country and the other EU nations have refused to negotiate with it as such.

It is not an independent country, but it has vestiges of independence (Parliament and football national team), so if there is a will on the part of the EU...

Basically, if the second Scotland Referendum has a similar result to the EU Referendum then the Scottish government has the same problem with their regions as the UK Government has with Scotland right now.

So far I haven't heard of any part of Scotland voicing its desire to secede in case Scotland leaves.

And again, Scotland may learn the lessons of the Brexit referendum and do it nicer then the UK did.

[Greyblades]

Not if sturgeon is in charge.

[Gilrandir]

One more referendum imminent?
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/...ion-referendum