Brexit Thread

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

If Scotland hurries up to hold the referendum while the UK is still within the EU, it will stay within the EU.

Spain has already said it will Veto such a move - several other European countries have active independence movements they do not want to encourage by making it easy for secessionists to gain access to the EU and the Common Market. At the same time there's no real incentive to let Scotland in quickly, an Independent Scotland would be a small country with a number of quite poor regions requiring EU support, it would have a small economy, an at best average per-Capita GDP and the EU would be on the hook to support this new nation without the big cheque that used to come from the UK every month.

At the same time it would greatly antagonise whatever was left of the UK and might increase secessionist violence in Northern Ireland, for which the UK would blame the EU.

So I'd put that under "possible but not likely".

Or we may say that the UK behaves childishly trying to make the WHOLE family leave Granny's place because it found no candy in the jar. Just a different perspective.

We could - but the reality is the UK as a whole has decided to leave, and Scotland is part of the UK - it is not an independent country and the other EU nations have refused to negotiate with it as such.

Again a different perspective. Right now it also seems that the UK is dragging away the parts of it that voted against it.

Ah, you miss my point, which is this: Scotland is claiming it is being dragged out "against its will" which is a somewhat foolish claim to make if you plan to have an Independence Referendum of your own. It's unlikely every region of Scotland will vote to leave the UK - while most voted to stay in the last Referendum (except parts of Glasgow) there was a wide variation. A 10%, possibly even a 20% swing , would see regions of Scotland like the Borders and Isles vote to remain part of the UK:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scotti...ferendum,_2014

Evidently, Scotland has a separate identity which allows it to take such steps being sure it will stay united. After all, it did stay united after the Scottish referendum, the loser side acquiescing to the result. Seeing the uproar caused by the Brexit referendum it may take precautions against any cessation attempts within Scotland.

The difference last time was that there was a 10-point margin in the vote and only a very small number of regions voted to beak away, so the yes side lost decisively. If the Yes side wins narrowly and a significant number of regions, like the Borders and the Isles, vote to stay, then Scotland cannot secede cleanly, they would either have to let those regions go or (more likely) hold further Referenda asking them if they want to stay part of Scotland or stay part of the UK.

Basically, if the second Scotland Referendum has a similar result to the EU Referendum then the Scottish government has the same problem with their regions as the UK Government has with Scotland right now.

[Greyblades]

Also - apparently Parliament was told by a Civil Servant we have 20 Trade Negotiators in the Foreign Office:

I wonder what the educational requirments are for Trade negociator.

[Idaho]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-36803544

Knee jerks? People who have a limbic response to social issues?

[Greyblades]

Christ, for a second there I was starting agree with the politicians want to defund the BBC, I feel disgusting.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

"The British Election Study's internet panel survey of 2015-16 asked a sample of over 24,000 individuals about their views on [the death penalty] and whether they would vote to leave the EU. The graph below, restricted to White British respondents, shows almost no statistically significant difference in EU vote intention between rich and poor. By contrast, the probability of voting Brexit rises from around 20% for those most opposed to the death penalty to 70% for those most in favour. Wealthy people who back capital punishment back Brexit. Poor folk who oppose the death penalty support Remain."

So at least some of this data is based on voting intentions, doesn't really account for people like me who got into the Booth and thought "you know what, I want us out".

The second graph is even stranger, it measures one axis from 0.05 to 0.25.

We're also lacking the curve indicating what percentage of people actually hold what view. How many people "Strongly agree" that the Death Penalty is appropriate, and under what circumstances?

Finally, if you look at that first graph again it looks like people who are ambivilient about the Death Penalty were predicted to have a roughly 40% probability of voting to leave the EU - if that's correct it suggests that the average Briton is somewhere between "Don't know" and "Agree". That's probably true, at far as I know every survey taken of the general UK population comes back with a majority in favour - except for one last year: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-32061822

It'll be interesting to see what this year's survey brings in data, it might go up again.

[Husar]

So the next referendum will be about reintroducing the death penalty and harsher punishments for sex offenders?

[Gilrandir]

Spain has already said it will Veto such a move - several other European countries have active independence movements they do not want to encourage by making it easy for secessionists to gain access to the EU and the Common Market.

Merkel has a way of talking people into what she wants. So the question is whether she does.

At the same time there's no real incentive to let Scotland in quickly, an Independent Scotland would be a small country with a number of quite poor regions requiring EU support, it would have a small economy, an at best average per-Capita GDP and the EU would be on the hook to support this new nation without the big cheque that used to come from the UK every month.

Why does the UK need such a nuisance then? Let them go!

But on the other hand, the EU had accepted even poorer countries, so it won't be a problem once the EU sets its mind on it.

At the same time it would greatly antagonise whatever was left of the UK and might increase secessionist violence in Northern Ireland, for which the UK would blame the EU.

Judging by the EU's rhetorics ("get out quicker if you want it so much") it doesn't bother the EU, still less it bothers Scotland.

We could - but the reality is the UK as a whole has decided to leave, and Scotland is part of the UK - it is not an independent country and the other EU nations have refused to negotiate with it as such.

It is not an independent country, but it has vestiges of independence (Parliament and football national team), so if there is a will on the part of the EU...

Basically, if the second Scotland Referendum has a similar result to the EU Referendum then the Scottish government has the same problem with their regions as the UK Government has with Scotland right now.

So far I haven't heard of any part of Scotland voicing its desire to secede in case Scotland leaves.

And again, Scotland may learn the lessons of the Brexit referendum and do it nicer then the UK did.

[Greyblades]

Not if sturgeon is in charge.

[Gilrandir]

One more referendum imminent?
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/...ion-referendum

[Greyblades]

No. Michael martin is a much worse barometer for public sentiment than sturgeon.

[Beskar]

[Greyblades]

I disagree with his assessment.