Brexit Thread

[Husar]

Well, Boris Johnson thought the economic outlook is rather bad:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...emaining-in-eu

In a Telegraph article, written days before a published version in which he backed leaving, the foreign secretary wrote of the EU: “This is a market on our doorstep, ready for further exploitation by British firms. The membership fee seems rather small for all that access. Why are we so determined to turn our back on it?”
[...]
He also warned that Brexit would cause an “economic shock” and could lead to the breakup of the United Kingdom in the article revealed in the book, All Out War: the Full Story of How Brexit Sank Britain’s Political Class.

Thankfully, he never published that and "used it only to make up his mind" or "found another perspective" or whatever.

[Fragony]

For the most part, I'm interested in the economic outlook that's related to the Brexit. Initially, the weakness in the pound triggered a solid business/economical outlook, but that took a serious crash dive when PM May outlined her plans to trigger the Brexit, which caused some serious havoc in the exchange markets. GBP/USD (Pound to dollar ratio) took a serious beating, and even suffered a flash crash of 6%.

That's not a good sign by any standards - even if a flash crash was most likely triggered by automatic sellings because of the breaking of a support/resistance point within the exchange market.

In the long run, economically, it can benefit or it can suffer. It depends very much on the government.

Britain needs to do the Brexit really carefully. Manage it properly, or else there will be some consequences for the entire world, not just for Britain.

Bloomberg article on the GBP - http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...-hedges-expire

I wouldn't take to much interest in that. One of the biggest Dutch banks is going to settle in city. Take your opertunity ffs it is NOT going to last long. Friendly advise to Brittish orgahs, buy now. If we go down together I'll at least buy the beer

[Kralizec]

They (ING) are moving the activities of some 50 investment bankers to London. They said the move is logical at the moment but essentially provisional, depending on what sort of post-Brexit deal the UK is going to make.

It's remarkable in a way, as ING issued pessmistic warnings about Brexit before the referendum and said they might move their activities out of the UK in that event. Then again, the real Brexit is probably still 2 years away.

[Fragony]

They (ING) are moving the activities of some 50 investment bankers to London. They said the move is logical at the moment but essentially provisional, depending on what sort of post-Brexit deal the UK is going to make.

It's remarkable in a way, as ING issued pessmistic warnings about Brexit before the referendum and said they might move their activities out of the UK in that event. Then again, the real Brexit is probably still 2 years away.

surely is remarkable, I really don't understand it. It comes as a complete surprise

[rory_20_uk]

2 years is a long time in banking. Perhaps they think whatever happens, companies will need very expensive advice. If at the end of 2 years the roles are not required they'll move again.

Bankers and hyenas operate to the same set of rules.

[Fragony]

Encircling and lashin out being a rule? oh noes. I actually got cririrism here for comparing it to hyenana strategy.

[edyzmedieval]

Rory is correct about the banking advice, the investment banking arm will operate most likely well because of the availability of capital, given that companies will now have to decide what to do with it if they do not invest any more in the UK.

[Fragony]

Rory is correct about the banking advice, the investment banking arm will operate most likely well because of the availability of capital, given that companies will now have to decide what to do with it if they do not invest any more in the UK.

Hold that tougjt until proven wrong, Nobody knows what the consequences are.

Dear Brittsh, should I post a suduko.

you'll be fine

[rory_20_uk]

Hold that tougjt until proven wrong, Nobody knows what the consequences are.

Dear Brittsh, should I post a suduko.

you'll be fine

Who cares what the consequences are - as long as you can bill for the advice.

[edyzmedieval]

The consequences have started to unravel - particularly in the economy. It will take some time until they fully do, it's still a long time until the Brexit finally happens, but it already started to show.

London will be a combination of still the top financial centre of the world and a place to run from.

And a lot of European financial hubs are trying to lure bankers away from London.

[Pannonian]

The consequences have started to unravel - particularly in the economy. It will take some time until they fully do, it's still a long time until the Brexit finally happens, but it already started to show.

London will be a combination of still the top financial centre of the world and a place to run from.

And a lot of European financial hubs are trying to lure bankers away from London.

And Frag will be assuring us that Britain will be fine, even as he is keeping as far away from here as possible. Just like Nigel Farage telling us that the EU is evil and to be kept out of our lives, even as he is making sure that he can bring his kids up in Germany. If Frag is so fond of the idea of living outside the EU, he should move to the UK and put his money where his mouth is.

[Montmorency]

And Frag will be assuring us that Britain will be fine, even as he is keeping as far away from here as possible.

That's rather unfair - he's just across the Channel.

[Pannonian]

That's rather unfair - he's just across the Channel.

A world away. He's living inside the EU, whilst assuring Brits that living outside the EU is preferable. If he believes it that strongly, all he has to do is move across the water (and it may be the North Sea at that point) and make his home in the post-EU utopia that he keeps assuring us is here. He's less bad than that hypocritical arsehole Farage in that he isn't actively trying to get out of here, but his constant reassurances about the UK are no less tiresome and for the same reason.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

A world away. He's living inside the EU, whilst assuring Brits that living outside the EU is preferable. If he believes it that strongly, all he has to do is move across the water (and it may be the North Sea at that point) and make his home in the post-EU utopia that he keeps assuring us is here. He's less bad than that hypocritical arsehole Farage in that he isn't actively trying to get out of here, but his constant reassurances about the UK are no less tiresome and for the same reason.

That's a very mercenary view - maybe he's like Kadagar and wants freedom for his own people, and not just the Brits? Or maybe you forgot there's a difference between being English and being Dutch?

If so I suggest you spend some time outside the big cosmopolitan cities.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Who cares what the consequences are - as long as you can bill for the advice.

You've been talking with my broker again, haven't you?

[Pannonian]

That's a very mercenary view - maybe he's like Kadagar and wants freedom for his own people, and not just the Brits? Or maybe you forgot there's a difference between being English and being Dutch?

If so I suggest you spend some time outside the big cosmopolitan cities.

One of liberalism's ideals is self determination, something that English culture also strongly believes in, although in that case it's known as minding one's own business. I've spent some time in Holland, and I enjoy the place, but I wouldn't dream of telling them what's right for them. Their affairs are their own business, not mine.

[Fragony]

And Frag will be assuring us that Britain will be fine, even as he is keeping as far away from here as possible. Just like Nigel Farage telling us that the EU is evil and to be kept out of our lives, even as he is making sure that he can bring his kids up in Germany. If Frag is so fond of the idea of living outside the EU, he should move to the UK and put his money where his mouth is.

Very unlikely but I hope the Netherlands follows. Wilders is the only one who wants out but despite probably becoming the biggest party all the parties can still form a rainbow-coalition. Wilders and a few small libertarian parties wants referenda to be binding like in Switserland. Hard, constitution would have to be changed and that's not easy. I will probably be dissapointed if a binding referendum about leaving the EU would be held.

Nice brittish cottage in would be nice by the way, some sheep, nice shire-horse and some ground.

[Sarmatian]

One of liberalism's ideals is self determination, something that English culture also strongly believes in, although in that case it's known as minding one's own business. I've spent some time in Holland, and I enjoy the place, but I wouldn't dream of telling them what's right for them. Their affairs are their own business, not mine.

That's a healthy attitude in life, I agree, but if all did so, there would no point in this board. It would be a very boring Ukraine thread if only Gilrandir is allowed to post there.

[Pannonian]

That's a healthy attitude in life, I agree, but if all did so, there would no point in this board. It would be a very boring Ukraine thread if only Gilrandir is allowed to post there.

Then there's some place for outsiders to have their say as well. But AFAICS Frag is the most frequent commenter on how things will be better for the UK outside the EU. I've talked before about how the neolibs imposed their theories on Yeltsin's Russia whilst living outside the scope of their effects. I despised them then, and I despise their equivalent now.

[Fragony]

Then there's some place for outsiders to have their say as well. But AFAICS Frag is the most frequent commenter on how things will be better for the UK outside the EU. I've talked before about how the neolibs imposed their theories on Yeltsin's Russia whilst living outside the scope of their effects. I despised them then, and I despise their equivalent now.

I don't tell you what to do, only what I think. How does my optimism compare to Brussel's eurocrats who were wrong about all doom-scenario's of a possible vote for a brexit, nothing what they were furiously screaming is actually happening. I know the real brexit has still to happen but the fearmoning makes eurocrats look really stupid and I like that because I dispise the EU

[Gilrandir]

It would be a very boring Ukraine thread if only Gilrandir is allowed to post there.

A correction:
It was a very boring Ukraine thread until Gilrandir was allowed to post there.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

A correction:
It was a very boring Ukraine thread until Gilrandir was allowed to post there.

Nothing like having a healthy self concept......

[Beskar]

I don't tell you what to do, only what I think. How does my optimism compare to Brussel's eurocrats who were wrong about all doom-scenario's of a possible vote for a brexit, nothing what they were furiously screaming is actually happening. I know the real brexit has still to happen but the fearmoning makes eurocrats look really stupid and I like that because I dispise the EU

Actually, the impacts are still happening over here and Brexit hasn't even started or happened yet officially. The pound has dropped significantly to that of the euro, all prices are rising at a minimum of 10%, in some cases, 40% We are getting the fabled "even more Austerity" being imposed upon us by the government. Scotland now pushing forward with a 2nd referendum. Our government went through a period of real instability, and the ramifications have had a profound impact on the political climate.

[Fragony]

Actually, the impacts are still happening over here and Brexit hasn't even started or happened yet officially. The pound has dropped significantly to that of the euro, all prices are rising at a minimum of 10%, in some cases, 40% We are getting the fabled "even more Austerity" being imposed upon us by the government. Scotland now pushing forward with a 2nd referendum. Our government went through a period of real instability, and the ramifications have had a profound impact on the political climate.

Short-term consequences were to be expected, and screw the political climate really, instability isn't always bad

[edyzmedieval]

Short-term consequences include this - http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016...r-with-unilev/

And these are short-term issues, which were eventually resolved by Tesco and Unilever. But what will happen in the future when bigger issues will occur, and not just Marmite?

[Fragony]

Not having marmite is probably a very big issue for the English ;)

[Pannonian]

Not having marmite is probably a very big issue for the English ;)

Tesco have since then warned that food prices are likely to rise sharply. Probably not an issue for you since you can afford to scoff, in more ways than one. You're neither British nor poor, so rises in the costs of essentials is something that you can comfortably laugh at. Just like the neolibs and 90s Russia.

[Fragony]

No I am not Brittish (and no I am not rich), and I certainly not having fun at your expense. If you dislike neolabarism so much, why do you dislike it so much that big-companies who come up with prices that can't be competed with are in trouble? Those are what the EU cater

[Pannonian]

No I am not Brittish (and no I am not rich), and I certainly not having fun at your expense. If you dislike neolabarism so much, why do you dislike it so much that big-companies who come up with prices that can't be competed with are in trouble? Those are what the EU cater

What stayaway theorists like yourself and the neolibs fail to realise is that poor people need to eat too. For you and the neolibs, the purity of a political idea trumps the reality of needing to tighten belts because costs of essentials are rising, costs that the rich can easily account for, but which account for a far greater proportion of a poor household's budget. Why is Putin so popular in Russia? Because of Yeltsin.

[Fragony]

What stayaway theorists like yourself and the neolibs fail to realise is that poor people need to eat too. For you and the neolibs, the purity of a political idea trumps the reality of needing to tighten belts because costs of essentials are rising, costs that the rich can easily account for, but which account for a far greater proportion of a poor household's budget. Why is Putin so popular in Russia? Because of Yeltsin.

Skip the staway, the Brittish and Dutch ecomomy are way too interconnected to use such a word. I am no theorist I am a layman and but isn't an expert anything more than someone who can explain why he had it wrong? Economics aside there are other reasons to be rid of the hand in your pants. The EU has become an unacountable monster