Brexit Thread

[Pannonian]

Skip the staway, the Brittish and Dutch ecomomy are way too interconnected to use such a word. I am no theorist I am a layman and but isn't an expert anything more than someone who can explain why he had it wrong? Economics aside there are other reasons to be rid of the hand in your pants. The EU has become an unacountable monster

The economies are about to become less interconnected, as you continue to have your common market, while we are about to leave, much to your pleasure. As for other reasons, I'd have thought that food on the table would be the first and overriding reason of politics, but I guess you think differently. It's easier for you to think differently after all, since you're not going to see food disappear, nor do you care if it happens to others, as long as you get to win your argument.

[Fragony]

The economies are about to become less interconnected, as you continue to have your common market, while we are about to leave, much to your pleasure. As for other reasons, I'd have thought that food on the table would be the first and overriding reason of politics, but I guess you think differently. It's easier for you to think differently after all, since you're not going to see food disappear, nor do you care if it happens to others, as long as you get to win your argument.

I would be a sadistic psychopath if I would like food seing dissapear and I just happen to not be a sadistic psychopath. I would call the EU that as they keep dumping surpluss in Africa, literraly making it impossible to build something themselve. I wonder what will happen in Brittain when smaller companies actually have a chance.

[Husar]

I wonder what will happen in Brittain when smaller companies actually have a chance.

Even higher prices as the whole economies of scale advantage is lost, efficiency goes down, resources are wasted.

[Fragony]

Even higher prices as the whole economies of scale advantage is lost, efficiency goes down, resources are wasted.

Are you familiar with the broken glass theory? A little bit harm can do a lot of good basicly. Libertarians are disgusted by the premise but we could see it in action in the UK.

[Pannonian]

Are you familiar with the broken glass theory? A little bit harm can do a lot of good basicly. Libertarians are disgusted by the premise but we could see it in action in the UK.

Classical neolib argument. Never mind the decrease in living standards. It's all for your own good, says he who lives a world away. The political writer I admire most is George Orwell. Orwell sought to understand the people he was writing about by going there and living amongst them. You're the polar opposite of Orwell.

[Fragony]

Classical neolib argument. Never mind the decrease in living standards. It's all for your own good, says he who lives a world away. The political writer I admire most is George Orwell. Orwell sought to understand the people he was writing about by going there and living amongst them. You're the polar opposite of Orwell.

Have never read anything of him so I can say nothing about it, but the English seem to have a broken window that needs fixing. You don't have to be so hostile, my mom and father have/had no education at all, my mom grew up in a lower-class neighbourhood in Haarlem and my father always kept his beard to hide the stabbing wounds. Do you think I am aristocracy or something. My face is covered with scars, I got scars from stabbing wounds everywere and got actually shot. Does Orwell?

[Pannonian]

Have never read anything of him so I can say nothing about it, but the English seem to have a broken window that needs fixing. You don't have to be so hostile, my mom and father have/had no education at all, my mom grew up in a lower-class neighbourhood in Haarlem and my father always kept his beard to hide the stabbing wounds. Do you think I am aristocracy or something. My face is covered with scars, I got scars from stabbing wounds everywere and got actually shot. Does Orwell?

[Fragony]

I take it that he did, but you should get the point

Edit, ohlol, just forgot something. I'll take the redicule as a man

[edyzmedieval]

Frag, Marmite is one of those quintessential British things that also happens to be cheap and good affordable food for those who enjoyed it. Granted, it's not a staple food, but a lot of people enjoy it, and a shortage of Marmite and a significant price increase (10% at the minimum is not small) is something that would affect a considerable number of people.

Case in point - it did. And look what happened. A public price war between Tesco, the largest retailer, and Unilever, one of the largest producers of food products.

[edyzmedieval]

Lawyers are thriving because of Brexit - http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...ause-of-brexit

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Actually, the impacts are still happening over here and Brexit hasn't even started or happened yet officially. The pound has dropped significantly to that of the euro, all prices are rising at a minimum of 10%, in some cases, 40% We are getting the fabled "even more Austerity" being imposed upon us by the government. Scotland now pushing forward with a 2nd referendum. Our government went through a period of real instability, and the ramifications have had a profound impact on the political climate.

Price rises of between ten and forty percent?

Given that inflation is only just tipped into 1% positive I'd like some data on that, please.

Also not seen "even more austerity", noises from Hammond point in much the opposite direction.

As to the government having a period of "real instability" that's just cobblers - at no point was there not a Prime Minister, at no point did we suffer mass-resignations from the Front Bench. That happened on the OTHER side of the chamber.

You're right about Scotland, though, but then the SNP have been sounding off like a bunch of shut in cats since the election.

[Husar]

Given that inflation is only just tipped into 1% positive I'd like some data on that, please.

Inflation?
From the previously posted link: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016...r-with-unilev/

The pound has fallen 17 per cent since Britain voted to leave the EU.

Bryan Roberts, a retail analyst at TCC Global, said: “A lot of suppliers are seeking to pass on price increases to retailers but in the current environment retailers are increasingly reluctant to take it. They want to keep prices as low as they can to increase their affordability against the competition.”

Former chairman of Northern Foods Lord Haskins told BBC Newsnight that he expected food inflation of around five per cent in the next year, with discounters affected as well as the main supermarket brands.

"Despite the fact that people will grumble about paying more for Marmite, they will pay more for Marmite and that’s what the strengths of good brands are," he said.

"But then the people who pay for Marmite have got less money to pay for something else so it will affect shopper’s behaviour in a substantial way."

There you also have your broken window theory.

I don't know about Marmite, but if the pound is falling, imports should become more expensive of course, nothing to do with inflation. Certainly not if retailers are so far trying to resist. And then how is inflation calculated in the UK? Here they use some "representative goods" to calculate it. With that method, only goods included in the calculations actually impact official inflation figures for obvious reasons.

[edyzmedieval]

The rapid decline in the value of the pound fuels inflation. And inflation was at 0.6%, and it almost doubled in a couple of months.

Bloomberg - Carney looking for inflation test - http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...most-two-years

[Husar]

The rapid decline in the value of the pound fuels inflation. And inflation was at 0.6%, and it almost doubled in a couple of months.

I didn't say that it doesn't, I said the effect can be delayed or that inflation numbers can be misleading as far as real inflation is concerned depending on how they're calculated or what you personally buy.

edit: okay, the "nothing to do with inflation" was a bad formulation in that regard.

Oh and the inflation does also not impact prices, prices impact inflation, so you can't say that imported goods can't become more expensive due to low inflation. The same can be true for locally produced goods since inflation is just an average, single items can have a lower or higher change in price.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Lawyers are thriving because of Brexit - http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...ause-of-brexit

Are you that surprised? After the next mass extinction, the only creatures left will be cockroaches....and lawyers. I'll not offer an opinion on which would be preferable as the new "top species," but....

[Beskar]

Price rises of between ten and forty percent?
Given that inflation is only just tipped into 1% positive I'd like some data on that, please.

Well, Unilever argument with Tesco was 10%. The 40% figure was the cost of importing bicycle parts from Japan from a BBC4 caller Bicycle UK Supplier, who is now getting the parts from an Italian manufacturer firm instead at only 25% the cost he was paying previously. There were numerous callers on this subject, and all the callers from businesses who import from outside the UK say prices for them were ranging from 10-40%, and this is currently getting swallowed by the hedge-funding and leverages the companies had in place, so they do not burden the customer with sudden price hikes, but these will be being passed on soon since said funding typically runs out after 6 months to a year. So if the situation doesn't improve, it hits our wallets.

Either way, looks like Husar beaten me to it. It is to do with the value of the pound, and the price hikes of costs/increases of importing from aboard.

[edyzmedieval]

I didn't say that it doesn't, I said the effect can be delayed or that inflation numbers can be misleading as far as real inflation is concerned depending on how they're calculated or what you personally buy.

edit: okay, the "nothing to do with inflation" was a bad formulation in that regard.

Oh and the inflation does also not impact prices, prices impact inflation, so you can't say that imported goods can't become more expensive due to low inflation. The same can be true for locally produced goods since inflation is just an average, single items can have a lower or higher change in price.

Inflation in the UK's case over here is fueled by Brexit - and look at the Tesco price war with Unilever. Unilever is suffering because of the pound, leading to higher prices and lower profits. They want to offset those costs by raising prices -> inflation.

And this is just one example.

The effect will be delayed for a little while before the rest of the producers and retailers see how the government is dealing with the formal application of Brexit. Hence why some are resisting price increases for the moment.

[Husar]

Inflation in the UK's case over here is fueled by Brexit - and look at the Tesco price war with Unilever. Unilever is suffering because of the pound, leading to higher prices and lower profits. They want to offset those costs by raising prices -> inflation.

And this is just one example.

The effect will be delayed for a little while before the rest of the producers and retailers see how the government is dealing with the formal application of Brexit. Hence why some are resisting price increases for the moment.

Eh, yes, I know a bit about economics considering I'm studying something sort of economic.

I may have misunderstoof PVC since I thought he was saying that price hikes of 10-40% were not justified because inflation is only 1%. Now that I read it again he was probably saying they are not happening given that inflation is low. There are still a few possible explanations, such as the last calculation having been a while ago and so on, but it makes more sense now.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/unit.../inflation-cpi

Apparently it is calculated monthly.

[Montmorency]

Depreciation and inflation are not exactly the same thing, basically.

[Kralizec]

Just curious, what makes May and the rest of the government think that there's a mandate to leave the single market?

Slightly less than half of the population voted for the status quo. A razor thin majority voted for leaving. I can believe that a majority of the Leave voters wants out of the single market in order to curb immigration, but since when is the Will of the People (tm) determined by a 'majority of the majority'?

[Fragony]

Just curious, what makes May and the rest of the government think that there's a mandate to leave the single market?

Slightly less than half of the population voted for the status quo. A razor thin majority voted for leaving. I can believe that a majority of the Leave voters wants out of the single market in order to curb immigration, but since when is the Will of the People (tm) determined by a 'majority of the majority'?

Oh common Europe is a continent, the EU an overhead.

[Kralizec]

I disagree, smoked mackerel is much tastier than salmon.

[Fragony]

I disagree, smoked mackerel is much tastier than salmon.

Depends, mackerel is used for bait mostly. But yeah it's tasty. Add moyonaise, a lot

[Sarmatian]

but since when is the Will of the People (tm) determined by a 'majority of the majority'?

Since always, pretty much.

One could argue that with such an important issue, there should have been a requirement of a minimum 60-70% of people coming out to vote for any result to be valid, but the general agreement is that those who don't have an opinion shouldn't hold back those that do have one.

If you think the issue is important, get out and vote.

[Kralizec]

That reminds me of the guy who started the petition requiring a second referendum, if the turnout was low or the result was close. He filed it before the referendum was actually held, in the expectation that Remain would win, since he himself was in favour of leaving.

As it turns out, Leave won and the petition was then signed in huge numbers by Remainers....and the guy who originally started the petition then scorned the Remainers for trying to overturn the result.

[Greyblades]

Oh yeah that was hillarious, especially when it ended up flooded by foriegn proxies with the vatican city signers outnumbering the cuty' population 2 to 1.

[Kralizec]

Hyperbole is nice, but sources are better. This article says that there were some 77.000 fraudulent or suspicious signatures, of more than 3 million signatures at the time (it peaked at over 4 million). Less than 3 %.

Edit: the point was, of course, that the person who started the petition is a hypocritical POS.

[Greyblades]

The salt must flow.

22 Hypocrytical brexiteers vs 4 million bremain sore losers/democracy underminers, probably not the best place to claim moral superiority over.

[Kralizec]

Excercising the legal right to petition your government does not undermine democracy. It's a cornerstone of democratic government. Your way of thinking is bizarre.

And the person who started the petition is still a POS.

[Greyblades]

As are the 4 million people who signed it as they were using that right to attempt to redo a referendum because they didnt like the result.