Brexit Thread

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

All the doom and gloom prediction were about what happens when Britain leaves EU. Britain is still in EU.

You can't disbelieve negative consequences of the Brexit by cherry picking worst predictions and stating they didn't materialize. The sun will rise again the day after article 50 is triggered, and againt after UK actually leaves.

Godzilla won't appear but negative consequences will be felt by most people. The real cost, though, will be in opportunities lost, both economically and politically.

EDIT: On the other hand, there is still a chance, however small, that EU crumbles under its own weight, in which case the general consensus will be that UK made an excellent choice.

Oh, I'm not saying there will be no pain, I'm just saying that the pre-Brexit predictions were all worst-case scenario and ONE prediction was that as soon as the result came through our economy would start to collapse as international trade and investment dried up.

Clearly, that hasn't happened and now looks unlikely, after an initial wobble international business has generally decided it still wants to trade with Britain and in Britain. At the same time our international partners are rapidly coming to the realisation that an independent Britain will be much easier to do a trade deal with than Europe.

Now, when we do leave there will be a period of painful adjustment but it's entirely unclear how long that period will be, how painful, and what we will be adjusting to. The same voices as before are predicting Armageddon, but they now ring hollow.

So, time to admit we don't know what the future holds, and by the by we can't command the sea to retreat either.

[Pannonian]

Oh, I'm not saying there will be no pain, I'm just saying that the pre-Brexit predictions were all worst-case scenario and ONE prediction was that as soon as the result came through our economy would start to collapse as international trade and investment dried up.

Clearly, that hasn't happened and now looks unlikely, after an initial wobble international business has generally decided it still wants to trade with Britain and in Britain. At the same time our international partners are rapidly coming to the realisation that an independent Britain will be much easier to do a trade deal with than Europe.

Now, when we do leave there will be a period of painful adjustment but it's entirely unclear how long that period will be, how painful, and what we will be adjusting to. The same voices as before are predicting Armageddon, but they now ring hollow.

So, time to admit we don't know what the future holds, and by the by we can't command the sea to retreat either.

I know for certain that the Norway model that you thought was the most likely result is definitely off the cards, as the PM has ruled out one of the preconditions. So we won't have the same access to the single market, which accounts for 50% of our exports. We'll need to renegotiate a trade deal to have some kind of access, which has been confirmed won't be as privileged as before (again, this isn't guesswork, but quotes from the powers that be). There are any number of areas where we are uncertain, but we are certain of the above.

Something else that has been predicted, that is coming to pass bit by bit, is increased costs leading to companies passing on the costs to their customers. For some things we can just do without. However, Labour recently mooted a proposal to cap energy costs. Which suggests there is at least some realistic possibility that energy will be one of the things that will increase in cost in the coming future. Should we do without heating in the future, as one of the necessary belt tightening costs that political Brexit (such as you've trumpeted) will require?

[rory_20_uk]

We trade with China, America, India without a trade agreement. Somehow we manage.

With the EU it'll be interesting to see whether the pragmatists or ideologues win out.