Brexit Thread

[Pannonian]

Consequences of Brexit

Leaders have made clear, before and after the vote, that Britain is not getting access to the single market.

“Out is out,” said Wolfgang Schaeuble, the German finance minister, some weeks ago.

“There will certainly be no cherry picking,” confirmed Mr Juncker, saying it will be a "clean" divorce.

More likely is a Canadian-style trade deal, that will set tariffs on imports and exports. That may be fine for German manufacturers. But Britain’s service economy will be cut up like an old car. British graduates are about to learn what it's like to use an Australian-style points system.

Article 50 is designed so that it leaves any state that activates it is a supplicant.

The remaining EU states will negotiate between themselves and deal with the UK as one, just as they would for Albania or Turkey.

If a deal covering trade arrangements isn’t struck once the two-year period expires, Britain is simply released from the EU treaties and left on crippling WTO terms - something the Treasury terms a "severe shock scenario" and which it envisages would likely result in a cut in GDP of six per cent and increase unemployment by 800,000, not including the risks presented by emergency spending cuts, or the "tipping points" presented by the crystallisation of financial stability risks.

It means the government will effectively be forced to take any fait accompli presented at the last minute, or face ruin.

Even then, any further trade deal will require ratification by EU parliaments, meaning Belgian MPs, amongst others, can veto it.

[AntiDamascus]

You just have to throw your hands up at this stuff sometimes. This is stuff I've seen all over different sites. It's the same routine.

Nothing but positives for leaving. Everything will be awesome. Those EU guys suck and they need us.
Ok yea we had to lie about stuff but it's because the other side is mean and lying so the only way to get people to our better ideas is to lie about them.
We don't actually have to do anything. That's the job of the people we don't like. All that matters to us is we're leaving and don't have to deal with those guys in the EU anymore.
Why would the EU be mean to us? Look at this, we want all the upsides and none of the downsides and maybe in process kill their group and instead of lavishing us in sweet deals they want us out?

It's everyone's problem but the people who want to leave. It's the fault of the Remain people that stuff isn't going great. Even though UK leaving EU could very well cripple it, they should be super nice to UK and give them sweet deals even though they've been badmouthing them constantly. I've rarely seen a group so caught up in "it's not our fault" about the one thing that is almost entirely their fault.

[Pannonian]

You just have to throw your hands up at this stuff sometimes. This is stuff I've seen all over different sites. It's the same routine.

Nothing but positives for leaving. Everything will be awesome. Those EU guys suck and they need us.
Ok yea we had to lie about stuff but it's because the other side is mean and lying so the only way to get people to our better ideas is to lie about them.
We don't actually have to do anything. That's the job of the people we don't like. All that matters to us is we're leaving and don't have to deal with those guys in the EU anymore.
Why would the EU be mean to us? Look at this, we want all the upsides and none of the downsides and maybe in process kill their group and instead of lavishing us in sweet deals they want us out?

It's everyone's problem but the people who want to leave. It's the fault of the Remain people that stuff isn't going great. Even though UK leaving EU could very well cripple it, they should be super nice to UK and give them sweet deals even though they've been badmouthing them constantly. I've rarely seen a group so caught up in "it's not our fault" about the one thing that is almost entirely their fault.

They want all their desires to be fulfilled but it's never their responsibility and they expect their living standards to be maintained by the government. Ironically, many of them simultaneously moan at leftists for the culture of entitlement.

[Greyblades]

You just have to throw your hands up at this stuff sometimes. This is stuff I've seen all over different sites. It's the same routine.

Nothing but positives for leaving. Everything will be awesome. Those EU guys suck and they need us.
Ok yea we had to lie about stuff but it's because the other side is mean and lying so the only way to get people to our better ideas is to lie about them.
We don't actually have to do anything. That's the job of the people we don't like. All that matters to us is we're leaving and don't have to deal with those guys in the EU anymore.
Why would the EU be mean to us? Look at this, we want all the upsides and none of the downsides and maybe in process kill their group and instead of lavishing us in sweet deals they want us out?

It's everyone's problem but the people who want to leave. It's the fault of the Remain people that stuff isn't going great. Even though UK leaving EU could very well cripple it, they should be super nice to UK and give them sweet deals even though they've been badmouthing them constantly. I've rarely seen a group so caught up in "it's not our fault" about the one thing that is almost entirely their fault.

...no we're saying it's not our job to tell the people who call themselves our leaders how to do thier jobs. We know what we want done it's the politicians jib to fivure out how to do it, If johnson and Gove had no plan on what to do next when they jumped the bandwagon that was thier stupidity and if they cannot come up with something we will find someone who can, UKIP was fipled with such people and if the current tories or labour cant do it then they will have to step down.

[AntiDamascus]

...no we're saying it's not our job to tell the people who call themselves our leaders how to do thier jobs. We know what we want done it's the politicians jib to fivure out how to do it, If johnson and Gove had no plan on what to do next when they jumped the bandwagon that was thier stupidity and if they cannot come up with something we will find someone who can, UKIP was fipled with such people and if the current tories or labour cant do it then they will have to step down.

These are vague plans in search of a leader to get them done. I'm reminded of like on tv or movies little rich kids yelling at butlers that they want a pony and if they don't get one their daddy will get a butler who does. And those kids are viewed, quite rightly, as spoiled brats.
If it was as easy as it seems, we'd all just vote in guys to solve our problems. Billions and billions in money, dozens of countries. Treaties and status and upset leaders concerned with their own countries issues. "We voted for it, get it done"

It's almost comical. "We vote for all the awesome stuff and none of the bad stuff. Done. That was easy. Don't know why anyone didn't do that before. We're smart."

[Greyblades]

Not exactly narrowing it down there.

These are vague plans in search of a leader to get them done. I'm reminded of like on tv or movies little rich kids yelling at butlers that they want a pony and if they don't get one their daddy will get a butler who does. And those kids are viewed, quite rightly, as spoiled brats.
If it was as easy as it seems, we'd all just vote in guys to solve our problems. Billions and billions in money, dozens of countries. Treaties and status and upset leaders concerned with their own countries issues. "We voted for it, get it done"

You're new to this whole representative democracy thing arent you?

You do know that a vote on a single issue is an anomaly, yes? See we usually vote in these people called MPs. that's members of parliament, and we vote them in, from of a group of usually 6, based on which of them can persuade us that thier plan is the best. We send them off to a parliament of these MPs from around the country and expect them to follow those plans when this parliament votes on the issues of governance. This is usually done with the understanding that if they dont follow through on thier promise they get voted out.

We voted on this singular issue and we expect them to follow that vote but I am afraid we still expect them to do thier job without handholding, same as always.

I assume you come from one of the countries without democracies, or that you have never voted, otherwise It would be my sad duty to inform you that your categorization of spoiled brat includes yourself.

It's almost comical. "We vote for all the awesome stuff and none of the bad stuff. Done. That was easy. Don't know why anyone didn't do that before. We're smart."

I wonder, if they had voted the other way and the EU collapsed would you be saying the same thing?

[HopAlongBunny]

The UK hasn't told the EU anything (as yet)
A non-binding referendum in a member state obliges the EU in no way
The UK might try to use the weak results as leverage...that might not turn out well.

A little something on the politics of fear:

http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/...over-evidence/

[Pannonian]

The UK's credit rating is plummeting. Which means we can't borrow on the scale that we've been doing before. Which means spending cuts or higher taxes. Wasn't one of the gripes, listed on the Brexit campaign bus, that we were giving more to the EU than we were getting back, to the tune of 8bn or so? How much is the tanking economy going to cost us this year and following years?

Brexit: playing Russian roulette with a wakizashi.

[Sarmatian]

Even then, any further trade deal will require ratification by EU parliaments, meaning Belgian MPs, amongst others, can veto it.

I'm having a smile on my face thinking how cool it would be if some Bulgarian MPs block UK trade deals with EU.

It will take some time for Brits to realize just how bad they **cked up.

[Pannonian]

I'm having a smile on my face thinking how cool it would be if some Bulgarian MPs block UK trade deals with EU.

It will take some time for Brits to realize just how bad they **cked up.

Londoners and Scots already know it.

Also, on Friday, the value of the pound dropped enough so that. within 24 hours of the referendum result, the UK economy dropped from the 5th to the 6th biggest in the world, overtaken by France.

[HopAlongBunny]

So far, isn't this just a tempest in a teapot?
The gov't of Britain has a mandate from its people to leave the EU; there is no compulsion to actually do so
Invoking Article 50 is a voluntary act; it is a button they never have to push.