Brexit Thread

[Pannonian]

...you think I am a Tory? Worst mind reader ever.

You're a kipper?

[Greyblades]

I'm a nothing, I do not identify with a party and no party covers all my concerns and views. Before the last election I considered the Tories and Labour as each holding half of my wants/needs and to get what I want they need to be cycled out every 10 years or so to get the desired outcome.

Now I think the Labour and Conservative politicians have become too alike and have abandoning the parts I wanted them in for: workers rights/social responsibility and national interest/economic responsibility respectively. They need a kick up the backside to get back to thier pre blair/thatcher dichotomy, and thankfully Corbyn and UKIP seem to be doing a good job moving them that way.

[Husar]

Jolly hard to mark on a ruler, though - I have me steel rule here with me and it's obvious the Imperial side is more accurate than the Metric one, not by a huge amount but it's clearly visible to the naked eye. So, if I was minded to, say, build a cabinet I'd use the Imperial side.

It's just as valid today if you don't have a calculator - Imperial is often easier to do in your head. It also exercises the brain - there was a noticeable drop in the scores in the Maths O-Level after Britain abandoned Charlemagne's denarius-based coinage. The fact we were persuaded to do so by the French and Germans is somewhat ironic.

That's both sad and hilarious at the same time.

And I'm still not saying you are, although apparently the jokes on you because they did.

https://timeandnavigation.si.edu/nav...air/challenges

The word challenges is all over that page, do you think everyday air travel should be made more dangerous by introducing more challenges? I suggest we begin by removing all police and body scanners from airports and itroduce sextants instead of GPS. Because hey, in the Middle Ages, airports didn't need police either!

Well, the old system was taken from the length of Henry I's arm, so it's actually based on the Body of a King (and therefore ordained by God). This explains why the EU wanted us to get rid of it, because the Metric system was created by mere men.

Oh hey, it's the Middle Ages again, where a loving god, whose son said to love your enemies, told us to go slay all the brown people and conquer their land and follow the personal ambitions of a dozen kings whom he all selected as rulers of men and then told to try and kill eachother.
Now I get it, makes perfect sense.

I'm a nothing, I do not identify with a party and no party covers all my concerns and views.

I'm sure you are the only very special snowflake who is like that.

[Greyblades]

Must you keep acting the inflammitory idiot?

I dare say most of the nation, nay, most of the world doesnt identify with a single political party anywhere.

[Husar]

Must you keep acting the inflammitory idiot?

I dare say most of the nation, nay, most of the world doesnt identify with a single political party anywhere.

Which was my point, I'd still think a lot of them prefer one party though. And you completely left out the notion of there possibly being a party that would cover all the most important things that you want.

I do however admit that my reply was a bit more inflammatory than it should have been, I misread your post a bit at first, my apologies.

[Greyblades]

Apology accepted.

Britain lost it's "give a toss about the poor" party with blair and it's "I still want to be British" party with thatcher, I dont know why, pundits blame neoliberalism I just know that neither main party of the last 20 years have been willing to do more than pay lipservice to what I care about. Lib dems are sellouts the national movements are opportunistic traitors and UKIP is but a protest vote begging for the main parties to pull their heads out of thier arses.

I dont consider myself loyal to a party because the parties I identify with were coopted by those enthralled to some golden calf they call multiculturalism to the expense of everything else before I left primary school.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

That's both sad and hilarious at the same time.

Which part?

The part where we went from base-12 to base-10 coinage and our score in Maths (which used to be very high internationally) declined, or the part where I build in inches?

The word challenges is all over that page, do you think everyday air travel should be made more dangerous by introducing more challenges? I suggest we begin by removing all police and body scanners from airports and itroduce sextants instead of GPS. Because hey, in the Middle Ages, airports didn't need police either!

OK - for the last fucking time, and I'm getting really angry now, I am not suggesting we start using Sextants on planes. HOWEVER it is a matter of historical fact that aerial navigators did prior to the advent or more modern positioning systems, it is also a fact that the astrologically based Nautical Mile would be easier to work with when navigating using astrological observations and a compass rather than a GPS. Now, at no point did I say we should turn off the GPS receivers and use sextants, I merely pointed out that before you decide to be so smug about the metric system you should consider how royally fucked a lot of modern navigators would be if they had to use Trig Table, a compass, a Sextant and a piece of paper.

Oh hey, it's the Middle Ages again, where a loving god, whose son said to love your enemies, told us to go slay all the brown people and conquer their land and follow the personal ambitions of a dozen kings whom he all selected as rulers of men and then told to try and kill eachother.
Now I get it, makes perfect sense.

You know what, I really want to pick apart all the historical fallacies in this but I know you've seen me write at length about religion, heresy, theory of kinship and the Crusades

So I'll just point out that I was joking, although there are political and cultural motivations behind metrication.

I mean, really, we should convert back to the Roman System.

I'm sure you are the only very special snowflake who is like that.

You really shouldn't mock Greyblades, he's just going through that phase.

[Pannonian]

Apology accepted.

Britain lost it's "give a toss about the poor" party with blair and it's "I still want to be British" party with thatcher, I dont know why, pundits blame neoliberalism I just know that neither main party of the last 20 years have been willing to do more than pay lipservice to what I care about. Lib dems are sellouts the national movements are opportunistic traitors and UKIP is but a protest vote begging for the main parties to pull their heads out of thier arses.

I dont consider myself loyal to a party because the parties I identify with were coopted by those enthralled to some golden calf they call multiculturalism to the expense of everything else before I left primary school.

Have you thought of aligning yourself with the British National Party? As its name denotes, it's very big on patriotism and the idea of pure Britishness.

[Greyblades]

Do kindly get stuffed.

You really shouldn't mock Greyblades, he's just going through that phase.

If you think it is a phase, why would you think dismissing my concerns as such would help end it any quicker?

[Gilrandir]

I dare say most of the nation, nay, most of the world doesnt identify with a single political party anywhere.

The US is an exception. There the whole states identify themselves with a party. And North Korea, of course.

The part where we went from base-12 to base-10 coinage and our score in Maths (which used to be very high internationally) declined, or the part where I build in inches?

These two events may not be cause and consequence, or even not connected. Since the times of the USSR there has been a decline in Maths proficiency in Ukraine as well, however we had had nothing to do with doudecimal system. Perhaps it is the general tendency of the world to get poorer at Sciences and better at Arts.

[Pannonian]

The US is an exception. There the whole states identify themselves with a party. And North Korea, of course.



These two events may not be cause and consequence, or even not connected. Since the times of the USSR there has been a decline in Maths proficiency in Ukraine as well, however we had had nothing to do with doudecimal system. Perhaps it is the general tendency of the world to get poorer at Sciences and better at Arts.

Or more relevantly, the greater tendency of younger generations to rely on technology. As technology advances and becomes more available, people get poorer at the tasks that are now done by technology.

[Husar]

OK - for the last fucking time, and I'm getting really angry now
[...]
So I'll just point out that I was joking, although there are political and cultural motivations behind metrication.

You see, maybe my jokes are not the only ones that don't translate well, my replies are not always as serious as they come across, although that doesn't mean that I caught every one of your jokes...
I think at this point we should measure the success of our arguments in metric units and then call it a (metric) draw.

I mean, really, we should convert back to the Roman System.

That is the kind of joke I can understand coming from you.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Intentionally dry reply

[Pannonian]

The British civil service has no trade negotiators, the former head of the government’s EU unit has confirmed.

The admission makes clear the scale of the challenge facing Whitehall as it prepares to negotiate its exit from the EU, along with a new economic arrangement with the bloc and agreements with non-EU countries.

“The trade negotiators who are Brits at the moment are basically working for the EU,” Oliver Letwin told BBC Radio 4. Asked if Britain currently had any negotiators, Mr Letwin, who left the government this week after not being included in Theresa May’s government, replied: “No, no.”

Canada, which recently agreed a trade deal with the EU, had “300 trade negotiators”, the country’s trade minister Chrystia Freeland told the BBC. The European Commission, which handles trade negotiations on behalf of member states, has about 600 specialists.

[Gilrandir]

Meanwhile up north...
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...erendum-brexit
Winter is coming?

[Seamus Fermanagh]

The US is an exception. There the whole states identify themselves with a party. And North Korea, of course.

Both major parties have sizable support in all 46 states and the 4 commonwealths. Admittedly, when you are the 30% in Alabama who are Democrat, the 60% who are GOP do end up running most of things so it can FEEL like a one party approach.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Meanwhile up north...
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...erendum-brexit
Winter is coming?

If I were Scotland I would wait until after the UK exits the EU - the EU has already made it clear that Scotland has to leave with the UK, then possibly leave the UK and rejoin the EU. If, once exit is completed, the Scots feel they want to leave the UK they should have that option, but not before. Holding a Referendum next year will divert a lot of political resources from the EU exit to the Referendum and if Scotland DOES leave the UK it will find itself outside both the UK and EU - without any trade relationship with either.

The Scottish position is somewhat childish at the moment anyway, trying to cling to the doorframe whilst the rest of the UK tries to drag them to the exit. What's moor, it's foolhardy. If Scotland insists on holding a Referendum on leaving the UK so that it can remain in the EU what happens to those parts of Scotland (and there likely will be some) that vote to remain part of the UK? Will Scotland try to drag those parts out of the UK like it is being dragged out of the EU?

[Pannonian]

If I were Scotland I would wait until after the UK exits the EU - the EU has already made it clear that Scotland has to leave with the UK, then possibly leave the UK and rejoin the EU. If, once exit is completed, the Scots feel they want to leave the UK they should have that option, but not before. Holding a Referendum next year will divert a lot of political resources from the EU exit to the Referendum and if Scotland DOES leave the UK it will find itself outside both the UK and EU - without any trade relationship with either.

The Scottish position is somewhat childish at the moment anyway, trying to cling to the doorframe whilst the rest of the UK tries to drag them to the exit. What's poor, it's foolhardy. If Scotland insists on holding a Referendum on leaving the UK so that it can remain in the EU what happens to those parts of Scotland (and there likely will be some) that vote to remain part of the UK? Will Scotland try to drag those parts out of the UK like it is being dragged out of the EU?

It's not much more childish or foolhardy than Brexit. Canada with 300 specialist trade negotiators took 7 years to negotiate a trade deal with the EU. The UK currently has 0 specialist trade negotiators, and little idea what qualities are involved for such a position (according to civil servants who are recruiting for that role). Once we hit article 50, we have 2 years to negotiate a deal before WTO tariffs apply, on which our exports instantly become uncompetitive in a market where 50% of our exports go.

[Gilrandir]

Both major parties have sizable support in all 46 states and the 4 commonwealths. Admittedly, when you are the 30% in Alabama who are Democrat, the 60% who are GOP do end up running most of things so it can FEEL like a one party approach.

Yet I hear "this state traditionally votes for Republicans" as often as not.

if Scotland DOES leave the UK it will find itself outside both the UK and EU - without any trade relationship with either.

If Scotland hurries up to hold the referendum while the UK is still within the EU, it will stay within the EU.

The Scottish position is somewhat childish at the moment anyway, trying to cling to the doorframe whilst the rest of the UK tries to drag them to the exit.

Or we may say that the UK behaves childishly trying to make the WHOLE family leave Granny's place because it found no candy in the jar. Just a different perspective.

What's poor, it's foolhardy. If Scotland insists on holding a Referendum on leaving the UK so that it can remain in the EU what happens to those parts of Scotland (and there likely will be some) that vote to remain part of the UK? Will Scotland try to drag those parts out of the UK like it is being dragged out of the EU?

Again a different perspective. Right now it also seems that the UK is dragging away the parts of it that voted against it.

Evidently, Scotland has a separate identity which allows it to take such steps being sure it will stay united. After all, it did stay united after the Scottish referendum, the loser side acquiescing to the result. Seeing the uproar caused by the Brexit referendum it may take precautions against any cessation attempts within Scotland.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

It's not much more childish or foolhardy than Brexit. Canada with 300 specialist trade negotiators took 7 years to negotiate a trade deal with the EU. The UK currently has 0 specialist trade negotiators, and little idea what qualities are involved for such a position (according to civil servants who are recruiting for that role). Once we hit article 50, we have 2 years to negotiate a deal before WTO tariffs apply, on which our exports instantly become uncompetitive in a market where 50% of our exports go.

According to members of the EU Commission we have two years to negotiate an exit - THEN we negotiate a trade deal. I covered this a few pages back but you either skipped over it or are choosing to ignore it. Now, maybe they'll break their own rules (this is the EU) and negotiate a trade deal, but if that's the case they'll likely extend the 2-year deadline if needed.

As far as Trade Negotiators go - we don't have zero, we have an unknown number. It all depends on how many UK-born EU Commission Negotiators decide to come home to Blighty and how many seek asylum as political refugees in France - I'm half-joking.

Also - apparently Parliament was told by a Civil Servant we have 20 Trade Negotiators in the Foreign Office:

http://indy100.independent.co.uk/art...s--ZyxdleNdBrW

Clearly this is a problem, the most likely solution is that we'll borrow them from Australia and Canada, they being our largest and friendliest allies with government departments devoted to Trade.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

If Scotland hurries up to hold the referendum while the UK is still within the EU, it will stay within the EU.

Spain has already said it will Veto such a move - several other European countries have active independence movements they do not want to encourage by making it easy for secessionists to gain access to the EU and the Common Market. At the same time there's no real incentive to let Scotland in quickly, an Independent Scotland would be a small country with a number of quite poor regions requiring EU support, it would have a small economy, an at best average per-Capita GDP and the EU would be on the hook to support this new nation without the big cheque that used to come from the UK every month.

At the same time it would greatly antagonise whatever was left of the UK and might increase secessionist violence in Northern Ireland, for which the UK would blame the EU.

So I'd put that under "possible but not likely".

Or we may say that the UK behaves childishly trying to make the WHOLE family leave Granny's place because it found no candy in the jar. Just a different perspective.

We could - but the reality is the UK as a whole has decided to leave, and Scotland is part of the UK - it is not an independent country and the other EU nations have refused to negotiate with it as such.

Again a different perspective. Right now it also seems that the UK is dragging away the parts of it that voted against it.

Ah, you miss my point, which is this: Scotland is claiming it is being dragged out "against its will" which is a somewhat foolish claim to make if you plan to have an Independence Referendum of your own. It's unlikely every region of Scotland will vote to leave the UK - while most voted to stay in the last Referendum (except parts of Glasgow) there was a wide variation. A 10%, possibly even a 20% swing , would see regions of Scotland like the Borders and Isles vote to remain part of the UK:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scotti...ferendum,_2014

Evidently, Scotland has a separate identity which allows it to take such steps being sure it will stay united. After all, it did stay united after the Scottish referendum, the loser side acquiescing to the result. Seeing the uproar caused by the Brexit referendum it may take precautions against any cessation attempts within Scotland.

The difference last time was that there was a 10-point margin in the vote and only a very small number of regions voted to beak away, so the yes side lost decisively. If the Yes side wins narrowly and a significant number of regions, like the Borders and the Isles, vote to stay, then Scotland cannot secede cleanly, they would either have to let those regions go or (more likely) hold further Referenda asking them if they want to stay part of Scotland or stay part of the UK.

Basically, if the second Scotland Referendum has a similar result to the EU Referendum then the Scottish government has the same problem with their regions as the UK Government has with Scotland right now.

[Greyblades]

Also - apparently Parliament was told by a Civil Servant we have 20 Trade Negotiators in the Foreign Office:

I wonder what the educational requirments are for Trade negociator.

[Idaho]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-36803544

Knee jerks? People who have a limbic response to social issues?

[Greyblades]

Christ, for a second there I was starting agree with the politicians want to defund the BBC, I feel disgusting.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

"The British Election Study's internet panel survey of 2015-16 asked a sample of over 24,000 individuals about their views on [the death penalty] and whether they would vote to leave the EU. The graph below, restricted to White British respondents, shows almost no statistically significant difference in EU vote intention between rich and poor. By contrast, the probability of voting Brexit rises from around 20% for those most opposed to the death penalty to 70% for those most in favour. Wealthy people who back capital punishment back Brexit. Poor folk who oppose the death penalty support Remain."

So at least some of this data is based on voting intentions, doesn't really account for people like me who got into the Booth and thought "you know what, I want us out".

The second graph is even stranger, it measures one axis from 0.05 to 0.25.

We're also lacking the curve indicating what percentage of people actually hold what view. How many people "Strongly agree" that the Death Penalty is appropriate, and under what circumstances?

Finally, if you look at that first graph again it looks like people who are ambivilient about the Death Penalty were predicted to have a roughly 40% probability of voting to leave the EU - if that's correct it suggests that the average Briton is somewhere between "Don't know" and "Agree". That's probably true, at far as I know every survey taken of the general UK population comes back with a majority in favour - except for one last year: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-32061822

It'll be interesting to see what this year's survey brings in data, it might go up again.

[Husar]

So the next referendum will be about reintroducing the death penalty and harsher punishments for sex offenders?

[Gilrandir]

Spain has already said it will Veto such a move - several other European countries have active independence movements they do not want to encourage by making it easy for secessionists to gain access to the EU and the Common Market.

Merkel has a way of talking people into what she wants. So the question is whether she does.

At the same time there's no real incentive to let Scotland in quickly, an Independent Scotland would be a small country with a number of quite poor regions requiring EU support, it would have a small economy, an at best average per-Capita GDP and the EU would be on the hook to support this new nation without the big cheque that used to come from the UK every month.

Why does the UK need such a nuisance then? Let them go!

But on the other hand, the EU had accepted even poorer countries, so it won't be a problem once the EU sets its mind on it.

At the same time it would greatly antagonise whatever was left of the UK and might increase secessionist violence in Northern Ireland, for which the UK would blame the EU.

Judging by the EU's rhetorics ("get out quicker if you want it so much") it doesn't bother the EU, still less it bothers Scotland.

We could - but the reality is the UK as a whole has decided to leave, and Scotland is part of the UK - it is not an independent country and the other EU nations have refused to negotiate with it as such.

It is not an independent country, but it has vestiges of independence (Parliament and football national team), so if there is a will on the part of the EU...

Basically, if the second Scotland Referendum has a similar result to the EU Referendum then the Scottish government has the same problem with their regions as the UK Government has with Scotland right now.

So far I haven't heard of any part of Scotland voicing its desire to secede in case Scotland leaves.

And again, Scotland may learn the lessons of the Brexit referendum and do it nicer then the UK did.

[Greyblades]

Not if sturgeon is in charge.

[Gilrandir]

One more referendum imminent?
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/...ion-referendum

[Greyblades]

No. Michael martin is a much worse barometer for public sentiment than sturgeon.

[Beskar]