Brexit Thread

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

???

http://www.indexmundi.com/g/r.aspx?v=21000

We are the 50-most populous in the world, and many of the most populous above us are either horribly overcrowded and suffer socially as a result (Japan, Hong Kong), Micro-Stare or Enclaves (Monaco, Gibraltar, the Vatican), or tiny Island nations (Bermuda, Malta).

At the same time there are ~30 fewer people per square kilometre in Germany and ~120 fewer in France.

Let me give you a concrete example. I live in the City of Exeter, I have friends living in the village of Pinhoe, it's about an hour's walk between the two but over the last four years that walk has gone from about 50% fields to 25% fields and dropping. In another five years Exeter will effectively swallow Pinhoe whole.

https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@50.74.../data=!3m1!1e3

Google Earth actually shows you the bit under development, you can actually see the boundaries between village and city being blurred.

The largest and most densely populated city in the UK was heavily Remain. So was the second largest. In London, the most central (and thus densely populated) areas were Remain. Some of the suburbs were Leave.

Londoners don't appreciate how horribly smelly and cramped London appears to oursiders, they are immune to the sensation of being "squashed" because they are already so closely packed.

[Husar]

We are the 50-most populous in the world, and many of the most populous above us are either horribly overcrowded and suffer socially as a result (Japan, Hong Kong), Micro-Stare or Enclaves (Monaco, Gibraltar, the Vatican), or tiny Island nations (Bermuda, Malta).

At the same time there are ~30 fewer people per square kilometre in Germany and ~120 fewer in France.

Let me give you a concrete example. I live in the City of Exeter, I have friends living in the village of Pinhoe, it's about an hour's walk between the two but over the last four years that walk has gone from about 50% fields to 25% fields and dropping. In another five years Exeter will effectively swallow Pinhoe whole.

https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@50.74.../data=!3m1!1e3

Google Earth actually shows you the bit under development, you can actually see the boundaries between village and city being blurred.

Things like that happen in Germany just as well, the entire Ruhrgebiet is slowly growing together. A lot of that is probably due to urbanization and less so due to immigration. When you zoom out from your google maps view, you see fields everywhere. Pinhoe and Exeter probably started to grow together somewhere around the middle ages. What's funny is that the Brexit also causes Britain to compete against its neighbors, and a larger population is a competitive advantage. So we'll see about that.

I would actually agree in general that the planet has far too much population given the goals of consumption everyone has. But Britain being overcrowded sounds a bit off given that Israel, Japan and so on are even more densely populated and seem to make it work. To just claim that they have problems from overpopulation does not convince me really, you'd have to show a bit more than that. I mean surely they have problems, but I'm not sure they're caused by overpopulation in a significant way. Tokyo's crowded subway system can be attributed to urbanization, centralization and the height of buildings just the same. If they spread the population more evenly around the country, that problem could be gone.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Things like that happen in Germany just as well, the entire Ruhrgebiet is slowly growing together. A lot of that is probably due to urbanization and less so due to immigration. When you zoom out from your google maps view, you see fields everywhere. Pinhoe and Exeter probably started to grow together somewhere around the middle ages. What's funny is that the Brexit also causes Britain to compete against its neighbors, and a larger population is a competitive advantage. So we'll see about that.

I would actually agree in general that the planet has far too much population given the goals of consumption everyone has. But Britain being overcrowded sounds a bit off given that Israel, Japan and so on are even more densely populated and seem to make it work. To just claim that they have problems from overpopulation does not convince me really, you'd have to show a bit more than that. I mean surely they have problems, but I'm not sure they're caused by overpopulation in a significant way. Tokyo's crowded subway system can be attributed to urbanization, centralization and the height of buildings just the same. If they spread the population more evenly around the country, that problem could be gone.

Pinhoe was mostly fields until a few decades ago, the bit that currently connects it to Exeter is an Industrial estate built, irrc, in the early 90's, so during my lifetime. Those fields are for sheep and cows, so as Exeter expands it destroys its own local food supply. Who's buying these houses though? Some are locals, true, but that's because people commute from Exeter to London and Bristol - that's threee hours to London. Rather puts London's quality of life into perspective. Urbanisation is part of a function of over-crowding. As more and more people are born the jobs dry up in rural areas, so people move to the cities, which therefore expand, swallowing the surrounding rural areas and destroying the basis for the rural economy (land). This results in rural over-population which causes people to move to cities and... you get the picture.

In Britain we're reaching a tipping point similar to the one after WWII where we had our last population explosion. the difference is that this time the population explosion is caused by immigration, without immigration the population would be slowly falling and might stabilise, alleviating the need for so much new housing.

As a result many people are resentful of immigration they see as uncontrolled (because it's enshrined in EU treaty and not a policy they can vote a government out for). This feeling of lack of control is a big part of why many people voted Out and the key theme my father returns to (you may recall he's Swedish, so he can't vote himself). Lack of control over agricultural policy is another reason people voted Out and probably a bigger one where I grew up than immigration.

Now, frankly, I think Pannonion et al bear a significant amount of the responsibility for the rise in racist attacks. It was Remain who said that those who voted Leave were racists and Xenophobes, so when Leave won the racists and Xenophobes felt empowered. That's why I'm annoyed people KEEP going on about it. If you're troubled by the racist attacks you need to find non-racists (like me) who voted Leave for political reasons or reasons of principle and not out of Xenophobia - and you need to engage with them publicly.

I want the same thing for Europe everyone else here does - peace, prosperity and happiness for everyone - I just happen to believe the EU can't deliver those things.

[Husar]

Pinhoe was mostly fields until a few decades ago, the bit that currently connects it to Exeter is an Industrial estate built, irrc, in the early 90's, so during my lifetime. Those fields are for sheep and cows, so as Exeter expands it destroys its own local food supply. Who's buying these houses though? Some are locals, true, but that's because people commute from Exeter to London and Bristol - that's threee hours to London. Rather puts London's quality of life into perspective. Urbanisation is part of a function of over-crowding. As more and more people are born the jobs dry up in rural areas, so people move to the cities, which therefore expand, swallowing the surrounding rural areas and destroying the basis for the rural economy (land). This results in rural over-population which causes people to move to cities and... you get the picture.

I think you got it wrong again. As I understand you, you don't like urban life for yourself, so you see everything through that lens.
I can't seem to find anything that suggests overpopulation were the cause of urbanization. As you say yourself, your population is shrinking without immigration, and immigrants tend to go to cities right away. Job in the countryside are drying up because people are leaving and because the jobs there are increasing automated. Cities also offer other bonuses such as better access to modern technology, economies of scale for the ones offering it and so on. The impact of cities destroying the surrounding economy may exist but it has to be incredibly small compared to every other factor. One might as well claim that more smaller villages mean more road connections, power lines and other infrastructure and pollution from all the driving around that destroys just as much or even more land than expanding cities.

In Britain we're reaching a tipping point similar to the one after WWII where we had our last population explosion. the difference is that this time the population explosion is caused by immigration, without immigration the population would be slowly falling and might stabilise, alleviating the need for so much new housing.

People began to move to cities in the Middle Ages already, the additional housing there is needed anyway. Technically the empty houses in the countryside could be razed though to let the area be reclaimed by nature.

As a result many people are resentful of immigration they see as uncontrolled (because it's enshrined in EU treaty and not a policy they can vote a government out for). This feeling of lack of control is a big part of why many people voted Out and the key theme my father returns to (you may recall he's Swedish, so he can't vote himself). Lack of control over agricultural policy is another reason people voted Out and probably a bigger one where I grew up than immigration.

Now, frankly, I think Pannonion et al bear a significant amount of the responsibility for the rise in racist attacks. It was Remain who said that those who voted Leave were racists and Xenophobes, so when Leave won the racists and Xenophobes felt empowered. That's why I'm annoyed people KEEP going on about it. If you're troubled by the racist attacks you need to find non-racists (like me) who voted Leave for political reasons or reasons of principle and not out of Xenophobia - and you need to engage with them publicly.

I want the same thing for Europe everyone else here does - peace, prosperity and happiness for everyone - I just happen to believe the EU can't deliver those things.

We will see whether curbing immigration will actually help. a shrinking population is a terrible economic prospect if one can't increase exports. Not only does the relation of pensioners to paying workers increase (in addition to medical reasons), it also means the markets shrink whereas businesses want to grow. Of course one business can still grow by cannibalizing another, but if the new business is less labor intensive, you end up with more unemployed people again. Maybe I'm missing something here, but I'm sceptical for now and need to sleep.
Have a good night.

[Sarmatian]

Trying to find logical reasons for Leave is wrong as the referendum was really about giving people a way to say **** YOU to the system. They took the opportunity provided and that's it. Very little logic, more about baser emotions.

[Pannonian]

Trying to find logical reasons for Leave is wrong as the referendum was really about giving people a way to say **** YOU to the system. They took the opportunity provided and that's it. Very little logic, more about baser emotions.

Real incomes will drop across the board as prices rise and people (especially the less well off) will be able to buy less with their money. That's the price we'll have to pay for "removing the EU excuse for politicians".

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Real incomes will drop across the board as prices rise and people (especially the less well off) will be able to buy less with their money. That's the price we'll have to pay for "removing the EU excuse for politicians".

Every doom and gloom prediction so far has been proved wrong.

It's time to admit we don't know what's going to happen.

[Gilrandir]

If you're troubled by the racist attacks you need to find non-racists (like me) who voted Leave for political reasons or reasons of principle and not out of Xenophobia - and you need to engage with them publicly.

It seems to me at the current stage it doesn't matter what reasons made people vote Out. Just like it doesn't matter why people voted for Trump. Both categories can justify their choice by the most benevolent intentions, but both nations now have to face the consequences which are (to my mind) are not what they had wanted to see. And I'd venture to presume the worst is yet to come.

[Pannonian]

It seems to me at the current stage it doesn't matter what reasons made people vote Out. Just like it doesn't matter why people voted for Trump. Both categories can justify their choice by the most benevolent intentions, but both nations now have to face the consequences which are (to my mind) are not what they had wanted to see. And I'd venture to presume the worst is yet to come.

Energy prices are going up because of the drop in the pound. And we've not even left yet.

[Shaka_Khan]

If you're troubled by the racist attacks you need to find non-racists (like me) who voted Leave for political reasons or reasons of principle and not out of Xenophobia - and you need to engage with them publicly.

Whenever I bring up the issue of racist attacks, both the Leave supporters and the Trump supporters ignore the topic because they think it's a waste of their time. They ridicule people like us for bringing it up. Can't people solve problems without having people suffer? I know a British national whose mother is from the Philippines. He was punched in the face in England at a sidewalk. Racist attacks are really happening more ever since the Brexit. I'm not saying that this is the case with you: I noticed that a lot of the Brexit supporters have a problem with cultures that are different from theirs. I came from a city where I myself was in the minority, so it doesn't bother me whether I'm in the majority or minority. Hearing different languages in my home city didn't bother me. This is why I couldn't relate to some of the people who felt uncomfortable with the other cultures.

This is an issue that interests me very much. I wonder how the Leave supporters feel about it now, and whether they feel any benefits. Is it worth it? The people who opposed Leave are still against it now. If the Brexit is any indication, it seems like a lot of the Trump supporters will continue to support him for a long time. I'm anxious to know when the general population will come to the same conclusion.

[Gilrandir]

This is an issue that interests me very much. I wonder how the Leave supporters feel about it now, and whether they feel any benefits. Is it worth it?

The UK hasn't officially left so it is too early to speak of any consequences.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Whenever I bring up the issue of racist attacks, both the Leave supporters and the Trump supporters ignore the topic because they think it's a waste of their time. They ridicule people like us for bringing it up. Can't people solve problems without having people suffer? I know a British national whose mother is from the Philippines. He was punched in the face in England at a sidewalk. Racist attacks are really happening more ever since the Brexit. I'm not saying that this is the case with you: I noticed that a lot of the Brexit supporters have a problem with cultures that are different from theirs. I came from a city where I myself was in the minority, so it doesn't bother me whether I'm in the majority or minority. Hearing different languages in my home city didn't bother me. This is why I couldn't relate to some of the people who felt uncomfortable with the other cultures.

This is an issue that interests me very much. I wonder how the Leave supporters feel about it now, and whether they feel any benefits. Is it worth it? The people who opposed Leave are still against it now. If the Brexit is any indication, it seems like a lot of the Trump supporters will continue to support him for a long time. I'm anxious to know when the general population will come to the same conclusion.

While the large majority of Brexit supporters and Trump supporters are decent folk, most of whom are simply concerned with "taking care of our own first," the stupid racists (sorry, that's redundant) are fellow travelers on these issues even if their motivations are far more sinister. Sadly, this means that some of them will be emboldened in their racist agenda. I hope it gets slapped down hard on both sides of the pond.

And yes, Pannonian, I am fully aware that you believe -- quite possibly correctly -- that those operating from a "take care of our own first" motivation are actually enacting a process that will take care of themselves less effectively than the current system.

I do get tired of the racist fringe groups being used (purposefully?) to tar the characterization of the Trump supporters (and apparently the pro brexiters as well).

[Pannonian]

While the large majority of Brexit supporters and Trump supporters are decent folk, most of whom are simply concerned with "taking care of our own first," the stupid racists (sorry, that's redundant) are fellow travelers on these issues even if their motivations are far more sinister. Sadly, this means that some of them will be emboldened in their racist agenda. I hope it gets slapped down hard on both sides of the pond.

And yes, Pannonian, I am fully aware that you believe -- quite possibly correctly -- that those operating from a "take care of our own first" motivation are actually enacting a process that will take care of themselves less effectively than the current system.

I do get tired of the racist fringe groups being used (purposefully?) to tar the characterization of the Trump supporters (and apparently the pro brexiters as well).

One of the ironies about the Leave campaign is that one of the most effective scare stories was the spectre of Turkey joining the EU with subsequent freedom of movement into Britain (even though the UK has been the strongest advocate for Turkish membership throughout the years, and even though accession wouldn't be possible without all current members agreeing). We don't want these Muslims here, right? Now that we've realised that trade negotiations with the post-UK EU won't be as smooth as Brexiteers anticipated, we're scratching around for trade deals with whoever may be interested. One of the trumpeted proposed deals is with Turkey, which, of course, won't come without reciprocal freedom of movement.

Bloody myopic idiots.

And Blair has entered the arena. I wonder if pro-EU Labour supporters will automatically turn pro-hard Brexit simply to support Corbyn and oppose Blair. The comments on online newspaper articles indicate they will.

[Shaka_Khan]

-double post-