Brexit Thread

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Things like that happen in Germany just as well, the entire Ruhrgebiet is slowly growing together. A lot of that is probably due to urbanization and less so due to immigration. When you zoom out from your google maps view, you see fields everywhere. Pinhoe and Exeter probably started to grow together somewhere around the middle ages. What's funny is that the Brexit also causes Britain to compete against its neighbors, and a larger population is a competitive advantage. So we'll see about that.

I would actually agree in general that the planet has far too much population given the goals of consumption everyone has. But Britain being overcrowded sounds a bit off given that Israel, Japan and so on are even more densely populated and seem to make it work. To just claim that they have problems from overpopulation does not convince me really, you'd have to show a bit more than that. I mean surely they have problems, but I'm not sure they're caused by overpopulation in a significant way. Tokyo's crowded subway system can be attributed to urbanization, centralization and the height of buildings just the same. If they spread the population more evenly around the country, that problem could be gone.

Pinhoe was mostly fields until a few decades ago, the bit that currently connects it to Exeter is an Industrial estate built, irrc, in the early 90's, so during my lifetime. Those fields are for sheep and cows, so as Exeter expands it destroys its own local food supply. Who's buying these houses though? Some are locals, true, but that's because people commute from Exeter to London and Bristol - that's threee hours to London. Rather puts London's quality of life into perspective. Urbanisation is part of a function of over-crowding. As more and more people are born the jobs dry up in rural areas, so people move to the cities, which therefore expand, swallowing the surrounding rural areas and destroying the basis for the rural economy (land). This results in rural over-population which causes people to move to cities and... you get the picture.

In Britain we're reaching a tipping point similar to the one after WWII where we had our last population explosion. the difference is that this time the population explosion is caused by immigration, without immigration the population would be slowly falling and might stabilise, alleviating the need for so much new housing.

As a result many people are resentful of immigration they see as uncontrolled (because it's enshrined in EU treaty and not a policy they can vote a government out for). This feeling of lack of control is a big part of why many people voted Out and the key theme my father returns to (you may recall he's Swedish, so he can't vote himself). Lack of control over agricultural policy is another reason people voted Out and probably a bigger one where I grew up than immigration.

Now, frankly, I think Pannonion et al bear a significant amount of the responsibility for the rise in racist attacks. It was Remain who said that those who voted Leave were racists and Xenophobes, so when Leave won the racists and Xenophobes felt empowered. That's why I'm annoyed people KEEP going on about it. If you're troubled by the racist attacks you need to find non-racists (like me) who voted Leave for political reasons or reasons of principle and not out of Xenophobia - and you need to engage with them publicly.

I want the same thing for Europe everyone else here does - peace, prosperity and happiness for everyone - I just happen to believe the EU can't deliver those things.

[Husar]

Pinhoe was mostly fields until a few decades ago, the bit that currently connects it to Exeter is an Industrial estate built, irrc, in the early 90's, so during my lifetime. Those fields are for sheep and cows, so as Exeter expands it destroys its own local food supply. Who's buying these houses though? Some are locals, true, but that's because people commute from Exeter to London and Bristol - that's threee hours to London. Rather puts London's quality of life into perspective. Urbanisation is part of a function of over-crowding. As more and more people are born the jobs dry up in rural areas, so people move to the cities, which therefore expand, swallowing the surrounding rural areas and destroying the basis for the rural economy (land). This results in rural over-population which causes people to move to cities and... you get the picture.

I think you got it wrong again. As I understand you, you don't like urban life for yourself, so you see everything through that lens.
I can't seem to find anything that suggests overpopulation were the cause of urbanization. As you say yourself, your population is shrinking without immigration, and immigrants tend to go to cities right away. Job in the countryside are drying up because people are leaving and because the jobs there are increasing automated. Cities also offer other bonuses such as better access to modern technology, economies of scale for the ones offering it and so on. The impact of cities destroying the surrounding economy may exist but it has to be incredibly small compared to every other factor. One might as well claim that more smaller villages mean more road connections, power lines and other infrastructure and pollution from all the driving around that destroys just as much or even more land than expanding cities.

In Britain we're reaching a tipping point similar to the one after WWII where we had our last population explosion. the difference is that this time the population explosion is caused by immigration, without immigration the population would be slowly falling and might stabilise, alleviating the need for so much new housing.

People began to move to cities in the Middle Ages already, the additional housing there is needed anyway. Technically the empty houses in the countryside could be razed though to let the area be reclaimed by nature.

As a result many people are resentful of immigration they see as uncontrolled (because it's enshrined in EU treaty and not a policy they can vote a government out for). This feeling of lack of control is a big part of why many people voted Out and the key theme my father returns to (you may recall he's Swedish, so he can't vote himself). Lack of control over agricultural policy is another reason people voted Out and probably a bigger one where I grew up than immigration.

Now, frankly, I think Pannonion et al bear a significant amount of the responsibility for the rise in racist attacks. It was Remain who said that those who voted Leave were racists and Xenophobes, so when Leave won the racists and Xenophobes felt empowered. That's why I'm annoyed people KEEP going on about it. If you're troubled by the racist attacks you need to find non-racists (like me) who voted Leave for political reasons or reasons of principle and not out of Xenophobia - and you need to engage with them publicly.

I want the same thing for Europe everyone else here does - peace, prosperity and happiness for everyone - I just happen to believe the EU can't deliver those things.

We will see whether curbing immigration will actually help. a shrinking population is a terrible economic prospect if one can't increase exports. Not only does the relation of pensioners to paying workers increase (in addition to medical reasons), it also means the markets shrink whereas businesses want to grow. Of course one business can still grow by cannibalizing another, but if the new business is less labor intensive, you end up with more unemployed people again. Maybe I'm missing something here, but I'm sceptical for now and need to sleep.
Have a good night.

[Sarmatian]

Trying to find logical reasons for Leave is wrong as the referendum was really about giving people a way to say **** YOU to the system. They took the opportunity provided and that's it. Very little logic, more about baser emotions.

[Pannonian]

Trying to find logical reasons for Leave is wrong as the referendum was really about giving people a way to say **** YOU to the system. They took the opportunity provided and that's it. Very little logic, more about baser emotions.

Real incomes will drop across the board as prices rise and people (especially the less well off) will be able to buy less with their money. That's the price we'll have to pay for "removing the EU excuse for politicians".

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Real incomes will drop across the board as prices rise and people (especially the less well off) will be able to buy less with their money. That's the price we'll have to pay for "removing the EU excuse for politicians".

Every doom and gloom prediction so far has been proved wrong.

It's time to admit we don't know what's going to happen.

[Sarmatian]

Every doom and gloom prediction so far has been proved wrong.

It's time to admit we don't know what's going to happen.

All the doom and gloom prediction were about what happens when Britain leaves EU. Britain is still in EU.

You can't disbelieve negative consequences of the Brexit by cherry picking worst predictions and stating they didn't materialize. The sun will rise again the day after article 50 is triggered, and againt after UK actually leaves.

Godzilla won't appear but negative consequences will be felt by most people. The real cost, though, will be in opportunities lost, both economically and politically.

EDIT: On the other hand, there is still a chance, however small, that EU crumbles under its own weight, in which case the general consensus will be that UK made an excellent choice.

[Greyblades]

The damage of brexit is entirely dependant on access to the single market, access that I find reason to believe will be granted without the immigration requirements.

I say this because for all their bluster the EU is not stupid enough to believe the brexit damage will be one way only, as a leaked report indicates

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

All the doom and gloom prediction were about what happens when Britain leaves EU. Britain is still in EU.

You can't disbelieve negative consequences of the Brexit by cherry picking worst predictions and stating they didn't materialize. The sun will rise again the day after article 50 is triggered, and againt after UK actually leaves.

Godzilla won't appear but negative consequences will be felt by most people. The real cost, though, will be in opportunities lost, both economically and politically.

EDIT: On the other hand, there is still a chance, however small, that EU crumbles under its own weight, in which case the general consensus will be that UK made an excellent choice.

Oh, I'm not saying there will be no pain, I'm just saying that the pre-Brexit predictions were all worst-case scenario and ONE prediction was that as soon as the result came through our economy would start to collapse as international trade and investment dried up.

Clearly, that hasn't happened and now looks unlikely, after an initial wobble international business has generally decided it still wants to trade with Britain and in Britain. At the same time our international partners are rapidly coming to the realisation that an independent Britain will be much easier to do a trade deal with than Europe.

Now, when we do leave there will be a period of painful adjustment but it's entirely unclear how long that period will be, how painful, and what we will be adjusting to. The same voices as before are predicting Armageddon, but they now ring hollow.

So, time to admit we don't know what the future holds, and by the by we can't command the sea to retreat either.

[Gilrandir]

If you're troubled by the racist attacks you need to find non-racists (like me) who voted Leave for political reasons or reasons of principle and not out of Xenophobia - and you need to engage with them publicly.

It seems to me at the current stage it doesn't matter what reasons made people vote Out. Just like it doesn't matter why people voted for Trump. Both categories can justify their choice by the most benevolent intentions, but both nations now have to face the consequences which are (to my mind) are not what they had wanted to see. And I'd venture to presume the worst is yet to come.

[Pannonian]

It seems to me at the current stage it doesn't matter what reasons made people vote Out. Just like it doesn't matter why people voted for Trump. Both categories can justify their choice by the most benevolent intentions, but both nations now have to face the consequences which are (to my mind) are not what they had wanted to see. And I'd venture to presume the worst is yet to come.

Energy prices are going up because of the drop in the pound. And we've not even left yet.

[Shaka_Khan]

If you're troubled by the racist attacks you need to find non-racists (like me) who voted Leave for political reasons or reasons of principle and not out of Xenophobia - and you need to engage with them publicly.

Whenever I bring up the issue of racist attacks, both the Leave supporters and the Trump supporters ignore the topic because they think it's a waste of their time. They ridicule people like us for bringing it up. Can't people solve problems without having people suffer? I know a British national whose mother is from the Philippines. He was punched in the face in England at a sidewalk. Racist attacks are really happening more ever since the Brexit. I'm not saying that this is the case with you: I noticed that a lot of the Brexit supporters have a problem with cultures that are different from theirs. I came from a city where I myself was in the minority, so it doesn't bother me whether I'm in the majority or minority. Hearing different languages in my home city didn't bother me. This is why I couldn't relate to some of the people who felt uncomfortable with the other cultures.

This is an issue that interests me very much. I wonder how the Leave supporters feel about it now, and whether they feel any benefits. Is it worth it? The people who opposed Leave are still against it now. If the Brexit is any indication, it seems like a lot of the Trump supporters will continue to support him for a long time. I'm anxious to know when the general population will come to the same conclusion.

[Gilrandir]

This is an issue that interests me very much. I wonder how the Leave supporters feel about it now, and whether they feel any benefits. Is it worth it?

The UK hasn't officially left so it is too early to speak of any consequences.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Whenever I bring up the issue of racist attacks, both the Leave supporters and the Trump supporters ignore the topic because they think it's a waste of their time. They ridicule people like us for bringing it up. Can't people solve problems without having people suffer? I know a British national whose mother is from the Philippines. He was punched in the face in England at a sidewalk. Racist attacks are really happening more ever since the Brexit. I'm not saying that this is the case with you: I noticed that a lot of the Brexit supporters have a problem with cultures that are different from theirs. I came from a city where I myself was in the minority, so it doesn't bother me whether I'm in the majority or minority. Hearing different languages in my home city didn't bother me. This is why I couldn't relate to some of the people who felt uncomfortable with the other cultures.

This is an issue that interests me very much. I wonder how the Leave supporters feel about it now, and whether they feel any benefits. Is it worth it? The people who opposed Leave are still against it now. If the Brexit is any indication, it seems like a lot of the Trump supporters will continue to support him for a long time. I'm anxious to know when the general population will come to the same conclusion.

While the large majority of Brexit supporters and Trump supporters are decent folk, most of whom are simply concerned with "taking care of our own first," the stupid racists (sorry, that's redundant) are fellow travelers on these issues even if their motivations are far more sinister. Sadly, this means that some of them will be emboldened in their racist agenda. I hope it gets slapped down hard on both sides of the pond.

And yes, Pannonian, I am fully aware that you believe -- quite possibly correctly -- that those operating from a "take care of our own first" motivation are actually enacting a process that will take care of themselves less effectively than the current system.

I do get tired of the racist fringe groups being used (purposefully?) to tar the characterization of the Trump supporters (and apparently the pro brexiters as well).

[Pannonian]

While the large majority of Brexit supporters and Trump supporters are decent folk, most of whom are simply concerned with "taking care of our own first," the stupid racists (sorry, that's redundant) are fellow travelers on these issues even if their motivations are far more sinister. Sadly, this means that some of them will be emboldened in their racist agenda. I hope it gets slapped down hard on both sides of the pond.

And yes, Pannonian, I am fully aware that you believe -- quite possibly correctly -- that those operating from a "take care of our own first" motivation are actually enacting a process that will take care of themselves less effectively than the current system.

I do get tired of the racist fringe groups being used (purposefully?) to tar the characterization of the Trump supporters (and apparently the pro brexiters as well).

One of the ironies about the Leave campaign is that one of the most effective scare stories was the spectre of Turkey joining the EU with subsequent freedom of movement into Britain (even though the UK has been the strongest advocate for Turkish membership throughout the years, and even though accession wouldn't be possible without all current members agreeing). We don't want these Muslims here, right? Now that we've realised that trade negotiations with the post-UK EU won't be as smooth as Brexiteers anticipated, we're scratching around for trade deals with whoever may be interested. One of the trumpeted proposed deals is with Turkey, which, of course, won't come without reciprocal freedom of movement.

Bloody myopic idiots.

And Blair has entered the arena. I wonder if pro-EU Labour supporters will automatically turn pro-hard Brexit simply to support Corbyn and oppose Blair. The comments on online newspaper articles indicate they will.

[Greyblades]

(even though the UK has been the strongest advocate for Turkish membership throughout the years, and even though accession wouldn't be possible without all current members agreeing)

Yes, Brexiteers have been really approving of what the government was doing with the EU in the last 20 years years, undoubtably approving.

One of the trumpeted proposed deals is with Turkey, which, of course, won't come without reciprocal freedom of movement.

Of course, it's inevitable that nations will never accept trade deals if they dont have free movement deals attached, I mean it's not as if even Merkel herself said a few months ago said she would allow wriggle room on freedom of movement or anythi- oh.

Turkey may want freedom of movement but may's cotinuing aptitude for political self preservation wont let them get it. Either Turkey will drop the idea or there wont be a deal.

Bloody myopic idiots.

Myopic, says the one who wanted to stay shackled to the sinking ship because he feared a more immediate discomfort.

And Blair has entered the arena. I wonder if pro-EU Labour supporters will automatically turn pro-hard Brexit simply to support Corbyn and oppose Blair. The comments on online newspaper articles indicate they will.

The only site I found with approving commenters was the guardian. I forsee Blair ensuring brexit acceptance.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

I know for certain that the Norway model that you thought was the most likely result is definitely off the cards, as the PM has ruled out one of the preconditions. So we won't have the same access to the single market, which accounts for 50% of our exports. We'll need to renegotiate a trade deal to have some kind of access, which has been confirmed won't be as privileged as before (again, this isn't guesswork, but quotes from the powers that be). There are any number of areas where we are uncertain, but we are certain of the above.

We may still end up with a "Transitional Deal" in the Norway model, and then get stuck "in transition" so you don't even know that, really. As to the eventual Trade Deal being less favourable for all concerned, this is not news.

Something else that has been predicted, that is coming to pass bit by bit, is increased costs leading to companies passing on the costs to their customers. For some things we can just do without. However, Labour recently mooted a proposal to cap energy costs. Which suggests there is at least some realistic possibility that energy will be one of the things that will increase in cost in the coming future. Should we do without heating in the future, as one of the necessary belt tightening costs that political Brexit (such as you've trumpeted) will require?

This is an interesting one, actually.

Beskar mentioned a guy who had to switch from getting Bicycle parts from Japan to Italy after the pound dropped, but that they were actually cheaper from Italy. Obviously that price is liable to go up after Brexit, but this raises a number of questions:

1. Why can't we manufacture something as mundane as this ourselves instead of transporting it half way across the world? Aside from anything else this is a waste of shipping and an undeeded impact on the environment, not to mention a waste of time.

2. Why was he getting them from Japan rather than Italy to being with - given we have no trade deal with Japan? Does this mean that, in reality, Trade Deals are not so important.

As a final note, bear in mind that 50% of our exports go to the EU partly because we are in the EU. If we were not in the EU we would have different trade deals with other nations and a different export profile.

One of the ironies about the Leave campaign is that one of the most effective scare stories was the spectre of Turkey joining the EU with subsequent freedom of movement into Britain (even though the UK has been the strongest advocate for Turkish membership throughout the years, and even though accession wouldn't be possible without all current members agreeing). We don't want these Muslims here, right? Now that we've realised that trade negotiations with the post-UK EU won't be as smooth as Brexiteers anticipated, we're scratching around for trade deals with whoever may be interested. One of the trumpeted proposed deals is with Turkey, which, of course, won't come without reciprocal freedom of movement.

Bloody myopic idiots.

One assumes the two groups are the same - it does not follow that because people didn't want free movement of people and labour from Turkey that politicians didn't want a trade deal. Likewise, British politicians wanted the EU in Turkey to bulwark it against Islamism by redirecting its gaze Westwards.

This was never realistic - Turkey would rather be the shark in the Middle East than another fish in Europe.

And Blair has entered the arena. I wonder if pro-EU Labour supporters will automatically turn pro-hard Brexit simply to support Corbyn and oppose Blair. The comments on online newspaper articles indicate they will.

Another example of why Corbyn needs to go, then, if his mere presence drives Labour supporters insane.

[Gilrandir]

2. Why was he getting them from Japan rather than Italy to being with - given we have no trade deal with Japan? Does this mean that, in reality, Trade Deals are not so important.

Trade agreements may not be comprehensive, so some goods may be outside them. Perhaps it was the case.

[Shaka_Khan]

-double post-