Brexit Thread

[Kagemusha]

The damage of brexit is entirely dependant on access to the single market, access that I find reason to believe will be granted without the immigration requirements.

I say this because for all their bluster the EU is not stupid enough to believe the brexit damage will be one way only, as a leaked report indicates

It would be suicidal for EU to allow Britain access to the single market without the immigration requirements. It would lead to a mass exodus from EU, so i cant see that happening.

[Greyblades]

Bother, I believe you caught me falling into the EU = Europe trap.

I meant the European nations arent stupid enough to believe the damage will be one sided. The EU being one more nation leaving away from collapse has two choices let britain keep the single market or be the scapegoat for the local european politicians when the local deficit balloons.

Rock and hard place, perhaps, but at the tail end of an age where can kicking became an artform it is obvious what the favourable choice will be.

[rory_20_uk]

It would be suicidal for EU to allow Britain access to the single market without the immigration requirements. It would lead to a mass exodus from EU, so i cant see that happening.

It would almost be that most European countries want free trade and put up with the rest as an unfortunate side effect - and we can't have that! Many countries would fragment (Scotland would cede, perhaps Belgium would fall apart, Spain, perhaps Italy) if they had the security from NATO and borderless trade there would be much less need to be in a larger country.

And then what would all the bureaucrats do? Try and climb the new greasy poles? No - best keep things they are.

[Kralizec]

It would almost be that most European countries want free trade and put up with the rest as an unfortunate side effect - and we can't have that! Many countries would fragment (Scotland would cede, perhaps Belgium would fall apart, Spain, perhaps Italy) if they had the security from NATO and borderless trade there would be much less need to be in a larger country.

And then what would all the bureaucrats do? Try and climb the new greasy poles? No - best keep things they are.

It's easy to cry about bureaucrats. The governments of the member states agreed to freedom of movement. That was a long time ago, with fewer member states, but when Cameron tried to get restrictions on it the other countries didn't jump on the bandwagon with him.

The Dutch PVV tried to score points with the public a couple of years ago by agitating against eastern Europeans. It only earned them a modest popularity boost at best, and you rarely hear about it from them nowadays. They've returned to their usual tropes of bashing Islam and the European Union on more general subjects. Freedom of movement isn't controversial over here, even if the EU itself is lacking in popularity.

That there's going to be some sort of compromise between the UK and the EU almost goes without saying, but it's not going to give the UK the same kind of market acces it has today. Even if only for legalistic reasons - you simply can't be part of a trade bloc and retain the ability to negotiate trade deals with third parties, which is one of the government's stated goals.