Brexit Thread

[Brenus]

It's like with the Argentinians and the Falklands, except with ten times the British Citizens involved.

At least the Spanish planes won't be at the limit of their range, and their Aircraft Carrier unsinkable...

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

But with a much smaller RN.

And a potential to start WWIII.

So let's hope the Spanish aren't that stupid.

This was before or after 23.06.2017? Dont you understand. You had a platform in EU where this kind of issues were easy to settle, but you decided to walk out from it, because of various reasons. You are now reaping what you sow and this is just a one issue. I surely hope your reasoning for Brexit will offer you more then what you are about to loose.

What is there to settle? We negotiated, we held a referendum, the people voted to be British but still the Spanish want the rock, and they have been goading us every summer since. The right thing for the EU to do would be to tell the Spanish that it has been British for over three centuries and to drop it. In fact, they have not, instead their negotiating position "acknowledges" the Spanish claim, as though it was somehow legitimate.

So, from my perspective the EU has been no help in settling this over the last decade - the other EU countries essentially support the Spanish position and continue to do so. If anything we gain a benefit from leaving the EU as we are no longer required to tow a line which gives lip service to a Spanish claim.

So you want to fight the Spanish over it?

No, I fear they will be stupid enough to fight us over it. If this becomes a bigger issue than it already is it may well have a military aspect as we'll have to rush HMS Queen Elizabeth to service before we leave the EU and accelerate uptake of the F35B in order to have a credible carrier force to deter such stupidity.

At the very least I imagine the RN is asking if it needs to keep a Destroyer Squadron in the Med ping-ponging between Cyprus and the Rock.

Giving up Gibraltar is a small price to pay, nothing is going to really change except cutting of a human traffic route, 'refugees' are Spain's problem if it's Spanish territory, pure win if you look at it pragmatically

The abandonment of 30,000 British citizens and the gateway to the Med is in no way acceptable, from a humanitarian, economic, or military perspective. If the Spanish are bellicose enough to demand the Rock, are they bellicose enough to close the Straight to British shipping?

At least the Spanish planes won't be at the limit of their range, and their Aircraft Carrier unsinkable...

Sorry, care to explain? I honestly don't understand the reference, or rather it could mean one of three things at least.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Lord Howard implies we would go to war over Gibraltar:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017...-says-michael/

"35 years ago this week another woman Prime Minister sent a task force half way across the World to defend the freedom of another small group of British people against another Spanish-speaking country. I am absolutely certain our current Prime Minister will show the same resolve in standing by the people of Gibraltar."

Another quote from said article:

Fabian Picardo told the BBC this morning that sharing sovereignty with Spain would be "absolutely awful" and comparable to "living in somebody else’s land."

Fabian Picardo is Gibraltar's Chief Minister.

[Husar]

So Gibraltar is basically proof of what happens when you don't exterminate an immigrant enclave fast enough?

Apparently it was taken in an opportune moment when there was internal turmoil, much like a peninsula that was formerly part of Ukraine (and also partially an immigrant enclave)...

[Pannonian]

So Gibraltar is basically proof of what happens when you don't exterminate an immigrant enclave fast enough?

Apparently it was taken in an opportune moment when there was internal turmoil, much like a peninsula that was formerly part of Ukraine (and also partially an immigrant enclave)...

To be fair, although I don't expect anyone to be fair to Britain, Spain has a couple of enclaves on the African continent as well. I expect Britain to be attacked for the unfairness of holding territory in Iberia, while Spain's holdings in North Africa will be ignored.

[Husar]

To be fair, although I don't expect anyone to be fair to Britain, Spain has a couple of enclaves on the African continent as well. I expect Britain to be attacked for the unfairness of holding territory in Iberia, while Spain's holdings in North Africa will be ignored.

They're all example of nations caring only about their own interests and conquest and oppression of others.
It's a terrible world, nothing we can do but wait for the flashes to end it all.

What we can clearly see in any case is how the whole idea of "friendly separation" is a pipe dream the leave camp lied about whereas we remainers warned that separation is usually the path to conflict and potentially even war. And here we are, before the separation is even done, talking about uparmament and even the use of nukes over a conflict caused by the separation...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017...=tmgoff_fb_tmg

[Kagemusha]

Lord Howard implies we would go to war over Gibraltar:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017...-says-michael/



Another quote from said article:



Fabian Picardo is Gibraltar's Chief Minister.

So in less then half a year there is talk about war in Western Europe. Im sure Putin is laughing himself senseless and Trump is ready to offer Britain the deal of their lives as vassal of US. This is exactly why EU should remain and the only redeeming factor is that anyone in Europe is idiot enough to actually start a war over few rocks at Gibraltar. Sometimes the amount of human stupidity is just too much to handle.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

So Gibraltar is basically proof of what happens when you don't exterminate an immigrant enclave fast enough?

Apparently it was taken in an opportune moment when there was internal turmoil, much like a peninsula that was formerly part of Ukraine (and also partially an immigrant enclave)...

So this is fair, then?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...mats-say-spain

The EU will not back down in its support for Spain’s demands when it comes to the Rock of Gibraltar in Brexit negotiations, senior European diplomats have said. The European council, whose members comprise the EU member states, shocked Downing Street by saying the British overseas territory could be included in a trade deal between London and Brussels only with Spain’s agreement.

A little background from Le Gruniard:

Ever since the Anglo-Dutch fleet captured Gibraltar 313 years ago during the war of Spanish succession, the small territory at the southern tip of Spain has been a bone of contention between Madrid and London. Although British sovereignty was formalised by the treaty of Utrecht in 1713 and Gibraltar became a British colony in 1830, Spain has always bristled at the idea of UK ownership. Two referendums - in 1967 and 2002 - have shown that the overwhelming majority of residents wish Gibraltar to remain British. Despite accusations of double standards given its two enclaves in north Africa, Spain has refused to relinquish its claim.

Your comparison with Ukraine is helpful, though, because it highlight why Lord Howard said what he did. The message seems to be lost on the Left but it is the same sentiment as with the Falklands viz:

"We will not abandon our citizens to you and we will not allow you to subjugate them by force."

This is not "sabre rattling", it is simply a grim statement of fact, we will not let our people be subjugated by force.

Despite this both Spain and Argentina inflict hardship upon enclaves that have been British longer than living memory primarily out of spite.

War with Spain is virtually impossible though because of the NATO treaty, if Spain were to invade Gibraltar the rest of NATO, including the EU would be honour-bound to oppose them.

So in less then half a year there is talk about war in Western Europe. Im sure Putin is laughing himself senseless and Trump is ready to offer Britain the deal of their lives as vassal of US. This is exactly why EU should remain and the only redeeming factor is that anyone in Europe is idiot enough to actually start a war over few rocks at Gibraltar. Sometimes the amount of human stupidity is just too much to handle.

That's one way to look at it, the other is to recognise this canker has been festering since 2002 and the EU just papered over it. That the EU now sides with Spain against the Gibraltarns after a referendum where 99% rejected joint sovereignty is, in my view, just another argument in favour of leaving.

[Pannonian]

That's one way to look at it, the other is to recognise this canker has been festering since 2002 and the EU just papered over it. That the EU now sides with Spain against the Gibraltarns after a referendum where 99% rejected joint sovereignty is, in my view, just another argument in favour of leaving.

You'd argue that anything in the world is yet another argument in favour of leaving. One of your clinching arguments was that, with the separation from the EU, Westminster no longer has that excuse for failing. Ie. that leaving is nothing to do with the EU, but entirely because Westminster has failed. If you find that your browser stopped working after the latest update, you'd say that it's just yet more reason why we need to leave the EU, as we need to eliminate that possibility from the reasons why your browser may have failed.

[Husar]

So this is fair, then?

Of course it is fair. Britain voted to leave the EU to take care of its own national interests. There were people on this forum saying it is better to have competing nations and the nation state is the ultimate soandso. Now that Britain is not in a bloc with Spain anymore, Spain is thinking about acting in its own self interest against a now-competing nation. The EU only acts in its own self interest when it supports the claims of a member over those of a leaving or non-member. British people claimed it's some holy form of behavior to act in national self-interest and are now crying about others doing the same? You've been warned and you said you wanted, preferred this. Now deal with it.

The whole hypocrisy thing is nonexistant and inconsequential in a world of self-interest and competition.
The argument about how long it has been British is even more true for Ceuta and Melilla, they have been Spanish for even longer. The thing is what changed ownership 300 years ago can do so again, that's the way of the world you voted for. And in whose favor was the referendum in 1713 anyway?

[Montmorency]

There's not much scope to fight anyway. Does Spain bomb out the entire peninsula? Do ships engage and get sunk around the strait, completely closing the Mediterranean to the world? Does Britain drop bombs and missiles just at the peninsula, or on targets throughout the mainland? What happens with Morocco?

If the world could in fact tolerate this war, then Spain would be in the position to win, i.e. achieve its goal of dominating Gibraltar. There would be no way to expel Spanish forces without obliterating the entire piece of land.

Funny to discuss, but not a real conflict for the time being.

[Kagemusha]

So summa summarum. With aid of both Britain and Spain, the trade treaty between Britain and EU fall`s short. British pro Brexiters take that as evidence that Brexit was the righteous thing to do. British economy take`s a major hit. What next?

Britain with her problematic economical future take`s an adamant stand at NATO together with Trumpist US that all members have to commit to 2% spending of GDP, which Germany with some other countries reject, with arguments like their larger spending to overseas development aid, dividing the NATO, could such be possible next?

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

You'd argue that anything in the world is yet another argument in favour of leaving. One of your clinching arguments was that, with the separation from the EU, Westminster no longer has that excuse for failing. Ie. that leaving is nothing to do with the EU, but entirely because Westminster has failed. If you find that your browser stopped working after the latest update, you'd say that it's just yet more reason why we need to leave the EU, as we need to eliminate that possibility from the reasons why your browser may have failed.

Oh, so you found that convincing, then?

What I actually said was that having an over-arching authority that people feel is unaccountable is bad for democracy, and that with that removed we would, at least, be masters of our own destiny.

Of course it is fair. Britain voted to leave the EU to take care of its own national interests. There were people on this forum saying it is better to have competing nations and the nation state is the ultimate soandso. Now that Britain is not in a bloc with Spain anymore, Spain is thinking about acting in its own self interest against a now-competing nation. The EU only acts in its own self interest when it supports the claims of a member over those of a leaving or non-member. British people claimed it's some holy form of behavior to act in national self-interest and are now crying about others doing the same? You've been warned and you said you wanted, preferred this. Now deal with it.

The whole hypocrisy thing is nonexistant and inconsequential in a world of self-interest and competition.
The argument about how long it has been British is even more true for Ceuta and Melilla, they have been Spanish for even longer. The thing is what changed ownership 300 years ago can do so again, that's the way of the world you voted for. And in whose favor was the referendum in 1713 anyway?

So the 30,000 Gibraltarns should be used as a scapegoat when the talks fail?

If we agreed to stay in the single market Gibraltar should be excluded unless we hand over at least partial control to the Spanish?

I never argued for mercenary self-interest, others have argued that but I have been very clear that, for me, this was about the fact that I don't want to be part of an unaccountable, un-democratic Bloc.

Anyway, the EU is supposed to be about peace, prosperity and co-operation - internally and externally. You posted a video to that effect just a little while ago, did you not?

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Lord Howard implies we would go to war over Gibraltar....

I don't see Spain militarily annexing Gib.

Were they to try, the UK's military capability to stop or counterattack is much more limited than it was in 1982.

Could it be done?

Would the UK need to resort to a nuclear threat?

If the threat failed, could the UK actually launch nukes (obviously they have the technology, that's not what I see as an obstacle)?

[Pannonian]

I don't see Spain militarily annexing Gib.

Were they to try, the UK's military capability to stop or counterattack is much more limited than it was in 1982.

Could it be done?

Would the UK need to resort to a nuclear threat?

If the threat failed, could the UK actually launch nukes (obviously they have the technology, that's not what I see as an obstacle)?

The real practical threat is that, after an agreement has been made with the EU delegates, when it comes to ratifying the agreement, Spain will say No. And despite PFH's criticisms of the EU lacking democratic accountability, the EU as a body is subject to numerous vetoes, one for each member state. As Canada has found out, if one member says No, the EU as a body says No. And the default persists until an agreement is reached. In the face of this, the UK can't exactly threaten war, and it has far too little leverage for economic war.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

The UK is not threatening war - the UK is merely making it clear that it will not compromise on Gibraltar and sell its people out, even in the face of military action. It shouldn't need to be said, it should be taken as read, but better to say it now than in 18 months time.

[Fragony]

The UK is not threatening war - the UK is merely making it clear that it will not compromise on Gibraltar and sell its people out, even in the face of military action. It shouldn't need to be said, it should be taken as read, but better to say it now than in 18 months time.

For what purpose, it was strstegically important in 1700 or so, now it's just sentiment. What could go wrong if you gracefully just give it away. Sacrfifices are going to be made and this would be a small but very symbolic one, everyone has an instant stfu

[Brenus]

Could it be done? Would the UK need to resort to a nuclear threat?

That will be suicidal. NATO would have the obligation to nuke UK.
And France being part of NATO and a Nuclear Weapons owner would be obliged to use them against UK, so at the end having 2 neighbours transformed in ashes, radioactives ones..

[Fragony]

lolwut the English are sending fleet

[Gilrandir]

Anyway, the EU is supposed to be about peace, prosperity and co-operation - internally and externally.

How can anyone in sober senses want to abandon "peace, prosperity and cooperation"?

That will be suicidal. NATO would have the obligation to nuke UK.
And France being part of NATO and a Nuclear Weapons owner would be obliged to use them against UK, so at the end having 2 neighbours transformed in ashes, radioactives ones..

Who will you fight for then?

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

For what purpose, it was strstegically important in 1700 or so, now it's just sentiment. What could go wrong if you gracefully just give it away. Sacrfifices are going to be made and this would be a small but very symbolic one, everyone has an instant stfu

30,000 people, that is the reason.

Well, now now, what do you think I feel when T. May uses me and others EU foreigners in UK as human shield for the future negotiation? The silence of the British is deafening.

I think the UK has said it will guarantee the status of EU nationals as soon as the EU reciprocates, and I think the EU has refused to discuss the issue up to know.

That will be suicidal. NATO would have the obligation to nuke UK.
And France being part of NATO and a Nuclear Weapons owner would be obliged to use them against UK, so at the end having 2 neighbours transformed in ashes, radioactives ones..

We're not going to attack Spain, nobody has said we will attack Spain.

If Spain invades Gibraltar will France support the UK?

[Husar]

30,000 people, that is the reason.

They can just move to the UK before Spain takes over. There's no need to abandon them.
If Spain gave up Ceuta and Melilla, the people living there now would probably move to Spain rather than become Moroccans, too.

[Franconicus]

30,000 people, that is the reason.

I am not very familiar with the people living at Gibraltar. However, what I heard is that most of them voted against the BREXIT and are afraid of it. I assume all they want is to live at Gibraltar and have good relations to the UK and Spain. Caused by the BREXIT, there will be a frontier to Spain. I doubt that the Gibraltarians really want to be defended in a war UK against Spain. Neither do they want to move to the UK (or they would have done already). Gibraltar is one of the losers of the BREXIT.

[Brenus]

Sorry, care to explain? I honestly don't understand the reference, or rather it could mean one of three things at least.

A joke referring to the distance between Argentina and the Falklands. The Argentine Air Forces were at the limit of fuel for their planes (Mirages and Daggers) and had limited Aerospace Exocet Missiles. So they could not be as efficient as possible, as their possibility of tactics were limited by the time they could be on the war theater.
And the aircraft carrier being Spain (not the Veinti Cinco de Mayo that was never engaged https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ARA_Ve..._de_Mayo_(V-2) ) it is by definition unsinkable...