Climate Change Thread

[Montmorency]

From the little reading on climate I've done over the past year, I've gleaned that consensus modeling has downgraded both the worst-case scenarios and the best-case scenarios. Thoughts?

[a completely inoffensive name]

From the little reading on climate I've done over the past year, I've gleaned that consensus modeling has downgraded both the worst-case scenarios and the best-case scenarios. Thoughts?

I think we are still fucked.

[Furunculus]

From the little reading on climate I've done over the past year, I've gleaned that consensus modeling has downgraded both the worst-case scenarios and the best-case scenarios. Thoughts?

This is my understanding.
No climate expert - but i do have a degree that is largely founded upon the understanding of paleo-climate.

[ReluctantSamurai]

From the little reading on climate I've done over the past year, I've gleaned that consensus modeling has downgraded both the worst-case scenarios and the best-case scenarios. Thoughts?

Peruse the Heitman article I posted for a gleaning on what's happening on the business front, and the links in post #440 for some ingeneous things that are possible.

Media and Hollywood tends to hype all the doomsday scenarios, and humans may very well get there...at some point. Whatever that time-span might be, it's apparent that in the coming decades, humans will have to adjust to an ever-changing environment. We will no longer be able to depend on certain areas for consistent food output. A good example of that here in the US was last years derecho event in Iowa which laid waste to thousands of acres of crops. Then of course there's drought conditions (some of which would occur even without human causal factors) that seem to be increasing:

https://gdis-noaa.hub.arcgis.com/pag...ght-monitoring

As sea levels continue to rise, coastal areas will continue to lose real estate, and people will start to migrate inland, causing all kinds of social and other endemic problems.

I'm far from any kind of expert on climate change, but one thing I continue to see in all the various climate change models is that changes are happening at an accelerating rate than previous models predicted, especially in the polar regions. Ice sheet losses far beyond what was expected, and accelerated heating as evidenced by unprecedented heat waves above the Arctic Circle (including a record-breaking 38 degrees C in the town of Verkhoyansk on 20 June), and the attendant fires.

The Peter Brannon article is significant to me in that one has to ride the wayback machine millions of years to find equivalency in what is occuring today. That doesn't bode well for the human race, IMHO....

[edyzmedieval]

So... thoughts on the absolute disaster that happened in Texas because of the storm? Climate change going ballistic on us?

[a completely inoffensive name]

So... thoughts on the absolute disaster that happened in Texas because of the storm? Climate change going ballistic on us?

Winter behavior in general is not as easily understood as summer. It is more difficult to say that this particular polar vortex behavior is from climate change than say a prolonged or intensive heat wave.
That being said, the world seems to be finally laying the groundwork for decarbonization and the climate scientists I follow on twitter seem to be more optimistic over the past year. If countries continue to follow through on their pledges, which is looking more likely due to the continued drop in price for renewables and storage, then we could be looking at 3 degrees worst case (vs 4-5 degrees a few years ago). With a bigger push we can still get to 2-2.5 degrees by 2100. It is very unlikely we will hit 1.5 degrees because of the multi decade delays in action.

Two big unknowns at the moment:
How fast can we decarbonize with the current state of electrical grids.
When or even who will start moving first in carbon sequestration deployment and/or geoengineering.

[Montmorency]

That being said, the world seems to be finally laying the groundwork for decarbonization and the climate scientists I follow on twitter seem to be more optimistic over the past year. If countries continue to follow through on their pledges, which is looking more likely due to the continued drop in price for renewables and storage, then we could be looking at 3 degrees worst case (vs 4-5 degrees a few years ago). With a bigger push we can still get to 2-2.5 degrees by 2100. It is very unlikely we will hit 1.5 degrees because of the multi decade delays in action.

When or even who will start moving first in carbon sequestration deployment and/or geoengineering.

I think we are still fucked.

[ReluctantSamurai]

Forgot about the fact that in 2013, 23 of 24 Republican Representatives in the House voted against relief aid to NY and NJ in the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy, as well as (then newly elected) Cruz and fellow GOP Senator John Cornyn:

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...z-sandy-relief

[a completely inoffensive name]

There is nothing contradictory in those statements.

[ReluctantSamurai]

The record cold? Yes. The absolute disaster? No. Despite the lame attempt by Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (and the habitual Fox News liar, Tucker Carlson) to blame windmills as the reason for the temporary collapse of the Texas power grid, windmills work just fine here in Michigan and elsewhere during the winter. We just had our first sub-zero temperature this winter a few nights ago, and not a single home went without power, nor a single windmill froze up due to the cold.

This is a failure of leadership to plan for such an emergency by winterizing wellheads, pumping stations, and windmill equipment. Texas had a similar event back in 2011, and they obviously didn't learn a thing. Leadership would rather pander to Big Oil by not enacting regulation that requires winterizing equipment, and laying up reserves for emergencies, all of which requires investment which those companies would rather not spend. Kinda like insurance...you may go years making premium payments with no return, but when disaster strikes, you are covered.

The whole mess was avoidable, and it will be interesting to see where the Texas corporate politicians try to find a scapegoat. It's also rather ironic, that the state most vehement about limiting Federal Government involvement in local matters, went running quickly to Washington for disaster aid...

Of course there's this moron telling fellow Texan's to suck it up and deal with it:

https://www.businessinsider.com/rick...er-grid-2021-2