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Thread: Climate Change Thread

  1. #271
    Iron Fist Senior Member Husar's Avatar
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    Default Re: Climate Change Thread

    https://www.theguardian.com/housing-...sing-provision

    There's also a change in housing policy in the Netherlands, where social housing is replaced with "the market" fixing everything, if I understand that correctly.
    It's similar here in Germany, social housing projects have been cancelled, rents go up and up and "experts" keep saying that the market will fix the problem we never had before as soon as we allow rents to go up into regions where half the population cannot afford a roof over its head anymore.

    It's nothing but neoliberal problem solving, but of course it's the fault of all the immigrants and leftists because neoliberalism was neutralized by chemtrails long ago.


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  2. #272
    master of the pwniverse Member Fragony's Avatar
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    Default Re: Climate Change Thread

    Low budget people do not have acces to the market, they will just have to wait because immigrants get priority. Guilt of leftists, yeah, absolutily. Neoliberation exists in the higher echelons, making it nigh impossible to buy a house. I got mine in time but it is really hard now to do, prices are insane. Simply put, working and middle class are abandoned in favour of immigration
    Last edited by Fragony; 10-26-2018 at 17:27.

  3. #273
    Iron Fist Senior Member Husar's Avatar
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    Default Re: Climate Change Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Fragony View Post
    Low budget people do not have acces to the market, they will just have to wait because immigrants get priority.
    Well, market logic would say that if you cannot exist on the market, you're obviously not worth existing.
    That has nothing to do with leftism, it's just that the market always knows best.


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  4. #274

    Default Re: Climate Change Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Fragony View Post
    No, quite the contrary, racism will get you a permaban at once there. It's no newssite it is a blog and you get away with more.

    What I said about immigrants getting priority is true, feel free to find someone saying otherwise. They also get money to furnice the place, washing machines, everything. We don't, we have to wait 10 years sometimes. It is not an issue for me myself becauce I bought my place, but you can be shafted pretty badly even if you have a job, immigrants get priority, wait a little longer kthxbye

    We (well not me) did not build a wellfare system for this. I am not as harsh as you think I have sheltered many just because I have a spare room. I wonder how many gutmensch did that
    Uh-huh. Do you have any other blogs you like?

    Fragony, let's assume it's true that immigrants are overwhelmingly prioritized in social programs (and I don't buy that they are). You are of the opinion that the government is failing to discharge its duties on behalf of the population. So, between the obvious responses you could have -

    1. The government should be compelled to fulfill its responsibilities.
    2. immigrants.

    why are you so attracted to the latter?
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  5. #275
    master of the pwniverse Member Fragony's Avatar
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    I help immigrants, they can live in my house, they can use my bathroom, use my kitchen, I don't mind, I got an extra room so why deny them that. That isn't something these politically correct mongrols do. Most tragic was a Syrian gay christian who was absolutily terrified to live in the asssylum-centre because he kept finding knives in his bed, so he could stay here np. Nice guy, lost contact.

    I don't hate them, the brother of the captain of the Marrocan-team is a buddy of mine(hooaguy met him here I don't know if he knows, the guy runned a lot of nightclubs my natural habitate), I know everybody here, I dispise the multicultural left thatś all

    What I say is true by the way, if you do not believe me you are free to ask someone else, 3 months max for immigrants, sometimes 10 years for Dutch natives. So unfair
    Last edited by Fragony; 10-26-2018 at 20:49.

  6. #276

    Default Re: Climate Change Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Fragony View Post
    I help immigrants, they can live in my house, they can use my bathroom, use my kitchen, I don't mind, I got an extra room so why deny them that. That isn't something these politically correct mongrols do. Most tragic was a Syrian gay christian who was absolutily terrified to live in the asssylum-centre because he kept finding knives in his bed, so he could stay here np. Nice guy, lost contact.

    I don't hate them, the brother of the captain of the Marrocan-team is a buddy of mine(hooaguy met him here I don't know if he knows, the guy runned a lot of nightclubs my natural habitate), I know everybody here, I dispise the multicultural left thatś all

    What I say is true by the way, if you do not believe me you are free to ask someone else, 3 months max for immigrants, sometimes 10 years for Dutch natives. So unfair
    How do you know the politically correct mongrels aren't also sheltering refugees? Maybe if you got together you could organize and shelter even more.

    Anyway, you believe that natives face long waiting times for social programs, while non-European immigrants are made to wait comparatively short times. Is the unfair part that natives face long waiting times, or is the unfair part that immigrants face short times? If the former, then the solution would involve reducing wait times for natives. If the latter, the solution to the latter would be to increase waiting times for non-natives, or otherwise restrict them; i.e. everyone suffers.
    Vitiate Man.

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  7. #277
    Headless Senior Member Pannonian's Avatar
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    Default Re: Climate Change Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Fragony View Post
    I help immigrants, they can live in my house, they can use my bathroom, use my kitchen, I don't mind, I got an extra room so why deny them that. That isn't something these politically correct mongrols do. Most tragic was a Syrian gay christian who was absolutily terrified to live in the asssylum-centre because he kept finding knives in his bed, so he could stay here np. Nice guy, lost contact.

    I don't hate them, the brother of the captain of the Marrocan-team is a buddy of mine(hooaguy met him here I don't know if he knows, the guy runned a lot of nightclubs my natural habitate), I know everybody here, I dispise the multicultural left thatś all

    What I say is true by the way, if you do not believe me you are free to ask someone else, 3 months max for immigrants, sometimes 10 years for Dutch natives. So unfair
    What evidence do you have supporting this general assertion of yours? We've already seen from your Brexit assertions that you're prone to spouting a load of bullcrap, none of which is substantiated, on the trust that your unproven assertions are right and the overwhelming body of evidence is wrong.

  8. #278
    master of the pwniverse Member Fragony's Avatar
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    Default Re: Climate Change Thread

    You can ask other Dutch people. Not just housing, also free healthcare, it is policy. The latter I don't really mind as they have hardly any acces to the market and healthcare is a bargain here anyway, but the priority with housing I do mind, it is so unfair

    I am glad I could just buy a house and pay it, none of this nonsense affects me, but it seriously affects some, another year heythx, sorry it has gone to someone else, maybe next year, and the next the next the next
    Last edited by Fragony; 10-27-2018 at 07:47.

  9. #279

    Default Re: Climate Change Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Fragony View Post
    You can ask other Dutch people. Not just housing, also free healthcare, it is policy. The latter I don't really mind as they have hardly any acces to the market and healthcare is a bargain here anyway, but the priority with housing I do mind, it is so unfair

    I am glad I could just buy a house and pay it, none of this nonsense affects me, but it seriously affects some, another year heythx, sorry it has gone to someone else, maybe next year, and the next the next the next
    In your opinion what steps should the government take to remedy the unfairness?

    Maybe the natives can get these houses?
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  10. #280
    master of the pwniverse Member Fragony's Avatar
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    Default Re: Climate Change Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    In your opinion what steps should the government take to remedy the unfairness?

    Maybe the natives can get these houses?
    Closing the borders obviously, no more immigrants, there are already simplty too many we cannor cope with it. What I do myself is what I choose to do, I just will not not help someone when I can but it shouldn't be policy

    Pim Forruin (RIP) had the great idea to have a general pardon for everyone, but seal the place after it
    Last edited by Fragony; 10-27-2018 at 15:16.

  11. #281

    Default Re: Climate Change Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Fragony View Post
    Closing the borders obviously, no more immigrants, there are already simplty too many we cannor cope with it. What I do myself is what I choose to do, I just will not not help someone when I can but it shouldn't be policy

    Pim Forruin (RIP) had the great idea to have a general pardon for everyone, but seal the place after it
    What happens if, after you leave the EU, close your borders, and mobilize your security forces to fortify the country, the condition of the poorer Dutch-folk has not improved and the wait times are just as long? What do you propose then?
    Vitiate Man.

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  12. #282
    Member Member Gilrandir's Avatar
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    Default Re: Climate Change Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    What happens if, after you leave the EU, close your borders, and mobilize your security forces to fortify the country, the condition of the poorer Dutch-folk has not improved and the wait times are just as long? What do you propose then?
    Change the time calculation. When one "old" day equals one "new" hour, the time of waiting will be significantly lower.
    Quote Originally Posted by Suraknar View Post
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  13. #283
    master of the pwniverse Member Fragony's Avatar
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    Default Re: Climate Change Thread

    Nothing, just not makinng it worse is all that can be done. It is a nice country and there really are not any serious problems but some issues should be adressed, and shouldn't be a problem to talk about, only talking. Leaving the EU, absolutily but that is not realistic with the current club they all want to go there it's a bit of a kartel in politics here, an open mind must also be sustainable and they make that really hard, I do not want to be turned into a hateful person but eventually I will become one. Mayve I am one already I fucking hate the EU and the multicultural left I am not calling an ambulance for them if they are bleeding out

    (@Monty)
    Last edited by Fragony; 10-28-2018 at 08:46.

  14. #284

    Default Re: Climate Change Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Fragony View Post
    Nothing, just not makinng it worse is all that can be done. It is a nice country and there really are not any serious problems but some issues should be adressed, and shouldn't be a problem to talk about, only talking. Leaving the EU, absolutily but that is not realistic with the current club they all want to go there it's a bit of a kartel in politics here, an open mind must also be sustainable and they make that really hard, I do not want to be turned into a hateful person but eventually I will become one. Mayve I am one already I fucking hate the EU and the multicultural left I am not calling an ambulance for them if they are bleeding out

    (@Monty)
    You seem to have identified foreigners as the chief problem your country experiences, and while you may be right it's possible you have misidentified the 'who' and 'what'. Rather than foreigners inside Dutchland, you should consider the effect of billions of foreigners outside Dutchland on your politics and the social welfare programs' implementation. If the existence of foreigners around the world is an operating environment for increasingly-fragmented sovereignty alongside integrated market chains under centralized direction, then you have the wrong scapegoat in immigrants to your country, and the symptoms you perceive can only be addressed by a muscular international consensus and agenda rather than aspirational paranoid reclusion.

    Just a thought.
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  15. #285
    master of the pwniverse Member Fragony's Avatar
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    Default Re: Climate Change Thread

    I do not blame them, I blame the multiculrral left. I have nothing against immigrants

  16. #286
    Member Member Tuuvi's Avatar
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    How Brazil’s Neo-Fascism Threatens The Planet

    It's really disconcerting that anti-environmentalists like Trump and Bolsonaro are coming to power right at the moment when we really need to start taking action to curb climate change.

  17. #287

    Default Re: Climate Change Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Tuuvi View Post
    How Brazil’s Neo-Fascism Threatens The Planet

    It's really disconcerting that anti-environmentalists like Trump and Bolsonaro are coming to power right at the moment when we really need to start taking action to curb climate change.
    Ha did you get to Current Affairs from one of my links here, or independently?
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  18. #288
    master of the pwniverse Member Fragony's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tuuvi View Post
    How Brazil’s Neo-Fascism Threatens The Planet

    It's really disconcerting that anti-environmentalists like Trump and Bolsonaro are coming to power right at the moment when we really need to start taking action to curb climate change.
    Climate isn't going to listen, it's natural, as sharp as a Rolex look at timelines you will see this happening over and over again. What we can do is polute less

  19. #289
    Member Member Tuuvi's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    Ha did you get to Current Affairs from one of my links here, or independently?
    Independently, I'm subscribed to a lot of lefty subs on Reddit so that's how I first heard of them.

    Quote Originally Posted by Fragony View Post
    Climate isn't going to listen, it's natural, as sharp as a Rolex look at timelines you will see this happening over and over again. What we can do is polute less
    Sure climate change is natural and the climate fluctuates throughout time, but that doesn't mean it happens randomly for no reason. The first oxygen-producing microorganisms changed the composition of the atmosphere and caused Earth's first ice age, why wouldn't human activity cause climate change as well?

  20. #290
    master of the pwniverse Member Fragony's Avatar
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    It certainly does not happen randomly, our planet sometimes gets pulled out of orbit, nobody will deny that. That doesn't mean that we should become more cleaner and do our best to stress our ieviroment less, but manmade climate-change is a farce, a very lucrative one. WE should just pay more attention, we are in no need for more religions, we should just pollute less
    Last edited by Fragony; 11-11-2018 at 08:31.

  21. #291

    Default Re: Climate Change Thread

    Sorry buds, we caused lunar warming too.
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  22. #292
    master of the pwniverse Member Fragony's Avatar
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    Default Re: Climate Change Thread

    Beyond rediculoys

  23. #293
    master of the pwniverse Member Fragony's Avatar
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    Well balanced docu in link https://www.geenstijl.nl/5144899/gre...-hem/#comments

    A leftie himself, he had the nerve to let sceptic scientists speak as well. The reactions he recieved inspired him to make his next docu 'paradogma'. He had to endure outright hostility from leftist NGO's

    (some knowledge of languages required)
    Last edited by Fragony; 11-20-2018 at 08:20.

  24. #294
    Praefectus Fabrum Senior Member Anime BlackJack Champion, Flash Poker Champion, Word Up Champion, Shape Game Champion, Snake Shooter Champion, Fishwater Challenge Champion, Rocket Racer MX Champion, Jukebox Hero Champion, Cub Shoot 2 Champion, My House Is Bigger Than Your House Champion, Funky Pong Champion, Cutie Quake Champion, Fling The Cow Champion, Treasure Diver Champion, Tiger Punch Champion, Virus Champion, Solitaire Champion, Worm Race Champion, Slack Man Champion, Japanese Baseball Champion, Rope Walker Champion, Penguin Pass Champion, Skate Park Champion, Super Mario Mushroom Champion, Watch Out Champion, Lawn Pac Champion, Weapons Of Mass Destruction Champion, Skate Boarder Champion, Fish Kill Champion, Lane Bowling Champion, Bugz Champion, Makai Grand Prix 2 Champion, KF 9000 Champion, White Van Man Champion, Parachute Panic Champion, BlackJack Champion, Stans Ski Jumping Champion, Smaugs Treasure Champion, Sofa Longjump Champion Seamus Fermanagh's Avatar
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    Default Re: Climate Change Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Fragony View Post
    It certainly does not happen randomly, our planet sometimes gets pulled out of orbit, nobody will deny that. That doesn't mean that we should become more cleaner and do our best to stress our ieviroment less, but manmade climate-change is a farce, a very lucrative one. WE should just pay more attention, we are in no need for more religions, we should just pollute less
    You would do Rush Limbaugh proud with this stance.


    I have been a skeptic regarding the anthropomorphic character of this current global warming period. I have yet to see good modeling for how we humans can be linked causally to this (may exist, but I cannot get a proper research piece to read for all of the babble that kills any google search on the subject -- if one of you lot has a link to a real research report and not someone's summary or babbling about consensus I would appreciate it. I want to read the data and manipulation thereof myself), but the correlation between human use of fossil fuels, population growth, and global temperature increases since 1850 is clear. Correlation is not causation, but that IS where start the research to see if there is a causal link, you do not just dismiss it.


    Moreover, for all the socialist inclinations of many of the climate change crowd, their theme is actually a positive one. If global warming is anthropomorphic, then it suggests that we CAN do something to mitigate or reverse it. If it is not, then lots of land in the Pacific basin will be lost, massive public works projects will be required for our coastal population centers, and the nature of agriculture (food being the ultimate resource) will shift worldwide -- and there will be many who see violence as their means of adjusting to the changes. The geopolitical threats from global warming are of concern regardless of its cause. So, however skeptical you are of their agendas, remember that the climate change folks are actually being pretty positive here -- they think that something CAN be done to make things better.
    "The only way that has ever been discovered to have a lot of people cooperate together voluntarily is through the free market. And that's why it's so essential to preserving individual freedom.ö -- Milton Friedman

    "The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule." -- H. L. Mencken

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  25. #295
    Headless Senior Member Pannonian's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh View Post
    You would do Rush Limbaugh proud with this stance.


    I have been a skeptic regarding the anthropomorphic character of this current global warming period. I have yet to see good modeling for how we humans can be linked causally to this (may exist, but I cannot get a proper research piece to read for all of the babble that kills any google search on the subject -- if one of you lot has a link to a real research report and not someone's summary or babbling about consensus I would appreciate it. I want to read the data and manipulation thereof myself), but the correlation between human use of fossil fuels, population growth, and global temperature increases since 1850 is clear. Correlation is not causation, but that IS where start the research to see if there is a causal link, you do not just dismiss it.


    Moreover, for all the socialist inclinations of many of the climate change crowd, their theme is actually a positive one. If global warming is anthropomorphic, then it suggests that we CAN do something to mitigate or reverse it. If it is not, then lots of land in the Pacific basin will be lost, massive public works projects will be required for our coastal population centers, and the nature of agriculture (food being the ultimate resource) will shift worldwide -- and there will be many who see violence as their means of adjusting to the changes. The geopolitical threats from global warming are of concern regardless of its cause. So, however skeptical you are of their agendas, remember that the climate change folks are actually being pretty positive here -- they think that something CAN be done to make things better.
    I'd have thought the right wing prepping community would be pretty much in favour of all the energy and resource efficient measures the Greens advocate, whether or not they want to accept the climate change arguments. And any right minded person would support reducing our reliance on the oil rich countries. Approached from a number of perspectives, green measures are still sensible; do it now, find your preferred argument for it later.

  26. #296
    Praefectus Fabrum Senior Member Anime BlackJack Champion, Flash Poker Champion, Word Up Champion, Shape Game Champion, Snake Shooter Champion, Fishwater Challenge Champion, Rocket Racer MX Champion, Jukebox Hero Champion, Cub Shoot 2 Champion, My House Is Bigger Than Your House Champion, Funky Pong Champion, Cutie Quake Champion, Fling The Cow Champion, Treasure Diver Champion, Tiger Punch Champion, Virus Champion, Solitaire Champion, Worm Race Champion, Slack Man Champion, Japanese Baseball Champion, Rope Walker Champion, Penguin Pass Champion, Skate Park Champion, Super Mario Mushroom Champion, Watch Out Champion, Lawn Pac Champion, Weapons Of Mass Destruction Champion, Skate Boarder Champion, Fish Kill Champion, Lane Bowling Champion, Bugz Champion, Makai Grand Prix 2 Champion, KF 9000 Champion, White Van Man Champion, Parachute Panic Champion, BlackJack Champion, Stans Ski Jumping Champion, Smaugs Treasure Champion, Sofa Longjump Champion Seamus Fermanagh's Avatar
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    Default Re: Climate Change Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Pannonian View Post
    I'd have thought the right wing prepping community would be pretty much in favour of all the energy and resource efficient measures the Greens advocate, whether or not they want to accept the climate change arguments. And any right minded person would support reducing our reliance on the oil rich countries. Approached from a number of perspectives, green measures are still sensible; do it now, find your preferred argument for it later.
    Reducing the relevance of the Middle East sounds fine with me. Think investments in nuclear and geo-thermal power need to be increased. Not a prepper myself, though I have known a couple who thought gold was a waste of time and were stocking .228 ammo and unhybridized seeds. Would love to see solar enhanced, but the efficiency score at the bottom of this atmosphere is not great.
    "The only way that has ever been discovered to have a lot of people cooperate together voluntarily is through the free market. And that's why it's so essential to preserving individual freedom.ö -- Milton Friedman

    "The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule." -- H. L. Mencken

  27. #297
    Headless Senior Member Pannonian's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh View Post
    Reducing the relevance of the Middle East sounds fine with me. Think investments in nuclear and geo-thermal power need to be increased. Not a prepper myself, though I have known a couple who thought gold was a waste of time and were stocking .228 ammo and unhybridized seeds. Would love to see solar enhanced, but the efficiency score at the bottom of this atmosphere is not great.
    Reducing food miles, increasing insulation and other energy-efficient environment changers, increasing recycling. All of that would reduce energy use, and should be the kind of stuff that right wing self reliant types should be promoting. Does it matter whether you do it because you want to avert climate change, or for other reasons? We should do it, think of better ways to do it further, and not bother ourselves with micro-arguments over why we're doing it. There are just so many good reasons for doing so.

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  28. #298

    Default Re: Climate Change Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh View Post
    You would do Rush Limbaugh proud with this stance.


    I have been a skeptic regarding the anthropomorphic character of this current global warming period. I have yet to see good modeling for how we humans can be linked causally to this (may exist, but I cannot get a proper research piece to read for all of the babble that kills any google search on the subject -- if one of you lot has a link to a real research report and not someone's summary or babbling about consensus I would appreciate it. I want to read the data and manipulation thereof myself), but the correlation between human use of fossil fuels, population growth, and global temperature increases since 1850 is clear. Correlation is not causation, but that IS where start the research to see if there is a causal link, you do not just dismiss it.


    Moreover, for all the socialist inclinations of many of the climate change crowd, their theme is actually a positive one. If global warming is anthropomorphic, then it suggests that we CAN do something to mitigate or reverse it. If it is not, then lots of land in the Pacific basin will be lost, massive public works projects will be required for our coastal population centers, and the nature of agriculture (food being the ultimate resource) will shift worldwide -- and there will be many who see violence as their means of adjusting to the changes. The geopolitical threats from global warming are of concern regardless of its cause. So, however skeptical you are of their agendas, remember that the climate change folks are actually being pretty positive here -- they think that something CAN be done to make things better.
    The hardcore skeptics are sure that scientists have a corrupt agenda but can't seem to make a connection between the financial incentives of the modern economy and trillion-dollar industries like agribusiness and petrochemicals. Because scientists = multicultural globalist left, you see, and who do they even think they are, claiming to know things? Such arrogance to believe humans could know things I don't know.


    Chapter 4, "Determining Humanity's Influence", from the pamphlet What We Know about Climate Change (Kerry Emanuel, 2018):

    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 
    How do we tell the difference between natural climate variations—
    both free and forced—and those that are caused by our
    own activities?

    One way to tell the difference is to make use of the fact that
    the increase in greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols dates back
    only to the Industrial Revolution of the nineteenth century:
    before that, the human influence is probably small. If we can
    estimate how climate changed before this time, we will have
    some idea of how the system varies naturally. Unfortunately,
    detailed measurements of climate did not themselves begin in
    earnest until the nineteenth century, but there are “proxies”
    for certain climate variables such as temperature. These proxies
    include the width and density of tree rings, the chemical composition
    of ocean and lake plankton, and the abundance and
    type of pollen.

    Plotting the global mean temperature derived from actual
    measurements and from proxies going back a thousand years
    or more reveals that the recent upturn in global temperature is
    truly unprecedented: the graph of temperature with time shows
    a characteristic hockey-stick shape, with the business end of the
    stick representing the upswing of the last 50 years or so. The
    proxies are imperfect, however, and have large margins of error,
    so any hockey-stick trends of the past may be masked, but the
    recent upturn in global temperature still stands above even a
    liberal estimate of such errors.

    Another way to tell the difference is to simulate the climate of
    the last hundred years or so using computer models. Computer
    modeling of global climate is perhaps the most complex endeavor
    ever undertaken by humankind. A typical climate model consists
    of millions of lines of computer instructions designed to
    simulate an enormous range of physical phenomena, including
    the flow of the atmosphere and oceans; condensation and precipitation
    of water inside clouds; the transport of heat, water,
    and atmospheric constituents by turbulent convection currents;
    the transfer of solar and terrestrial radiation through the atmosphere,
    including its partial absorption and reflection by the
    surface, clouds, and the atmosphere itself; and vast numbers of
    other processes. There are by now a few dozen such models, but
    they are not entirely independent of one another, often sharing
    common pieces of computer code and common ancestors.

    Although the equations representing the physical and chemical
    processes in the climate system are well known, they cannot
    be solved exactly. It is computationally impossible to keep track
    of every molecule of air and ocean, so to make the task viable,
    the two fluids must be divided up into manageable chunks. The
    smaller and more numerous these chunks, the more accurate
    the result, but with today’s computers the smallest we can make
    these chunks in the atmosphere is around 50 miles in the horizontal
    and a few hundred yards in the vertical. We model the
    ocean using somewhat smaller chunks. The problem here is
    that many important processes happen at much smaller scales.
    For example, cumulus clouds in the atmosphere are critical for
    transferring heat and water upward and downward, but they are
    typically only a few miles across and so cannot be simulated by
    the climate models. Instead, their effects must be represented
    in terms of quantities such as wind speed, humidity, and air
    temperature that are averaged over the whole computational
    chunk in question. The representation of these important but
    unresolved processes is an art form known by the awkward term
    parameterization, and it involves numbers, or parameters, that
    must be tuned to get the parameterizations to work in an optimal
    way. Because of the need for such artifices, a typical climate
    model has many tunable parameters that one might think of as
    knobs on a large, highly complicated machine. This is one of
    many reasons that such models provide only approximations
    to reality. Changing the values of the parameters or the way the
    various processes are parameterized can change not only the
    climate simulated by the model, but also the sensitivity of the
    model’s climate to, say, greenhouse gas increases.

    How, then, can we go about tuning the parameters of a climate
    model so that it serves as a reasonable facsimile of reality?
    Here important lessons can be learned from our experience
    with those close cousins of climate models, weather-prediction
    models. These are almost as complicated and must also parameterize
    key physical processes, but because the atmosphere is
    measured in many places and quite frequently, we can test the
    model against reality several times per day and keep adjusting its
    parameters (that is, tuning it) until it performs as well as it can.
    In the process we come to understand the inherent accuracy of
    the model. But in the case of climate models, there are precious
    few tests. One obvious test is whether the model can replicate
    the current climate, including key aspects of its variability, such
    as weather systems and El Ni˝o. It must also be able to simulate
    the seasons in a reasonable way: summers must not be too hot
    or winters too cold, for example.

    Beyond a few simple checks such as these, however, there
    are not many ways to assess the models, and so projections of
    future climates must be regarded as uncertain. The amount of
    uncertainty in such projections can be estimated to some extent
    by comparing forecasts made by many different models, given
    their different parameterizations (and, very likely, different sets
    of coding errors). We operate under the expectation that the
    real climate will fall among the projections made with the various
    models—that the truth, in other words, will lie somewhere
    between the higher and lower estimates generated by the models.
    It is not inconceivable, though, that the actual solution will
    fall outside these limits.

    While it is easy to stand on the sidelines and take shots at
    these models, they represent science’s best effort to project the
    earth’s climate over the next century or so. At the same time, the
    large range of possible outcomes is an objective quantification of
    the uncertainty that remains in this enterprise. Still, those who
    proclaim that the models are wrong or useless usually are taking
    advantage of science’s imperfections to promote their own
    prejudices. Uncertainty is an intrinsic feature of prediction, and
    it works in both directions.

    Figure 2 shows the results of two sets of computer simulations
    of the global average surface temperature during the
    twentieth century, using a particular climate model. In the first
    set, denoted by the dotted line and lighter shade of gray, only
    natural, time-varying forcings are applied. These consist of variable
    solar output and “dimming” owing to aerosols produced
    by known volcanic eruptions. The second set (dashed line and
    darker shade of gray) incorporates human influence on sulfate
    aerosols and greenhouse gases. Each set of simulations is run
    four times beginning with slightly different initial states, and the
    range of outcomes produced is denoted by the shading in the
    figure. This range reflects the random fluctuations of the climate
    produced by this model, while the bold curves show the average
    of the four ensemble members. The observed global average surface
    temperature is depicted by the black curve. The two sets of
    simulations diverge during the 1970s and have no overlap at all
    today. The observed global temperature also starts to fall outside
    the envelope of the all-natural simulations in the 1970s.
    This exercise has been repeated using many different climate
    models, with the same qualitative result: one cannot accurately
    simulate the evolution of the climate over the last 30 years
    without accounting for the human input of sulfate aerosols and
    greenhouse gases. This is one (but by no means the only) important
    reason that almost all climate scientists today believe that
    man’s influence on climate has emerged from the background
    noise of natural variability. But the main reason remains the
    elementary physics that Arrhenius used to predict the global
    response to increasing greenhouse gases, long before the computer
    age.


    TLDR see the discrepancy between observations and proxies of the pre-industrial climate, what we might predict for the modern climate on the basis of those trends, and the discrepancy between that retroactive extrapolation and actual modern observed climate trends.

    [...]one cannot accurately
    simulate the evolution of the climate over the last 30 years
    without accounting for the human input of sulfate aerosols and
    greenhouse gases.
    This is one (but by no means the only) important
    reason that almost all climate scientists today believe that
    man’s influence on climate has emerged from the background
    noise of natural variability. But the main reason remains the
    elementary physics that Arrhenius used to predict the global
    response to increasing greenhouse gases, long before the computer
    age.
    Also,

    Uncertainty is an intrinsic feature of prediction, and
    it works in both directions.
    If climate change is anthropogenic, we need to rewrite civilization. If it's not anthropogenic, we need to rewrite civilization. Starting yesterday. Some have raised the necessity of a mobilization on the scale of the United States in WW2. I think this analogy falls short. A better one would be to the mobilization of the Soviet Union: out of complacency and sunk costs it will begin too late to prevent the deaths of millions, it will involve extensive international cooperation, it will be highly traumatic, and we will suffer under totalitarianism in the name of either nationalism or socialism.

    Pannonian, all those policies are nice in their own right but they are infinitesimal in the face of industrially-driven emissions in the case of anthropogenic warming - see the estimate that 70% of all indsutrial emissions since 1988 have been attributable to the activities of just 100 corporations, and over 50% to just 25*. Industries like mining, agribusiness, aeroplane, shipping, and especially energy, and especially petrochemicals, will then follow the logic of capitalism and manufacture controversy (even as internal communications reveal the absence of controversy) surrounding any phenomenon whose logical consequences require the curtailing of or direct public control over industrial activities. Because these would interfere with cash flow to shareholders and stakeholders. Stakeholders here referring to the rich and powerful, because our economic system necessarily concentrates negative externalities among the least economically efficient or valuable actors. Crime always pays.

    More bluntly, an amoral organization MUST commit crimes, both statutory and against humanity.

    *To be fair, many of these are state or hybrid entities.
    Last edited by Montmorency; 11-21-2018 at 03:34.
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  29. #299
    master of the pwniverse Member Fragony's Avatar
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    Default Re: Climate Change Thread

    doublepost scuzy
    Last edited by Fragony; 11-21-2018 at 08:06.

  30. #300
    master of the pwniverse Member Fragony's Avatar
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    Default Re: Climate Change Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh View Post
    You would do Rush Limbaugh proud with this stance.


    I have been a skeptic regarding the anthropomorphic character of this current global warming period. I have yet to see good modeling for how we humans can be linked causally to this (may exist, but I cannot get a proper research piece to read for all of the babble that kills any google search on the subject -- if one of you lot has a link to a real research report and not someone's summary or babbling about consensus I would appreciate it. I want to read the data and manipulation thereof myself), but the correlation between human use of fossil fuels, population growth, and global temperature increases since 1850 is clear. Correlation is not causation, but that IS where start the research to see if there is a causal link, you do not just dismiss it.


    Moreover, for all the socialist inclinations of many of the climate change crowd, their theme is actually a positive one. If global warming is anthropomorphic, then it suggests that we CAN do something to mitigate or reverse it. If it is not, then lots of land in the Pacific basin will be lost, massive public works projects will be required for our coastal population centers, and the nature of agriculture (food being the ultimate resource) will shift worldwide -- and there will be many who see violence as their means of adjusting to the changes. The geopolitical threats from global warming are of concern regardless of its cause. So, however skeptical you are of their agendas, remember that the climate change folks are actually being pretty positive here -- they think that something CAN be done to make things better.
    Look at this graph https://www.google.com/search?q=eart...MJMw3THGqSjYM:

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