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Thread: Futuramafia [Concluded]
Unaltered role PM below spoiler.
Spoiler Alert, click show to read:
Originally Posted by Winston Hughes:
Can you be more specific?
Your lynch positions are generally where I would expect mafia to end up. I will elaborate more when I get on a laptop. Your cases don't feel that definite or well defined, but I can understand having trouble making them so I will let it slide for now.Can you be more specific?
Oh, also, I want to frame that post of pure praise you directed towards me. I still don't know why you think I'm confident, but thanks for the endorsement.
Originally Posted by Dp101:
Your lynch positions are generally where I would expect mafia to end up. I will elaborate more when I get on a laptop. Your cases don't feel that definite or well defined, but I can understand having trouble making them so I will let it slide for now.
Yeah, I'm not letting it slide. Your lynch positions are generally where I would expect mafia to end up. I will elaborate more when I get on a laptop. Your cases don't feel that definite or well defined, but I can understand having trouble making them so I will let it slide for now.
Feels like I've been around the top of your scum pile for some time - and last night you were all about setting me up for today's lynch if Stork came back town - but you've never made any real attempt to push me.
Have you targeted me, GH?
Vote: Murska
Originally Posted by Winston Hughes:
Yeah, I'm not letting it slide.
Feels like I've been around the top of your scum pile for some time - and last night you were all about setting me up for today's lynch if Stork came back town - but you've never made any real attempt to push me.
Seems fair, again, once I have a proper keyboard I will try and make a proper case that amounts to more than vague reads.Yeah, I'm not letting it slide.
Feels like I've been around the top of your scum pile for some time - and last night you were all about setting me up for today's lynch if Stork came back town - but you've never made any real attempt to push me.
Also, you have not been on top for very long. I have had vague suspicions of you earlier, but I don't think I end up actually wanting to vote you until midway through day 3.
Originally Posted by Winston Hughes:
Have you targeted me, GH?
I'm not disclosing anything about my actions at this time.Have you targeted me, GH?
Originally Posted by GeneralHankerchief:
I'm not disclosing anything about my actions at this time.
Will there be a time when you do? Hard to prove you are indeed the roleblocker if you don't have a record of what you did. Of course you could also be mafia with pizza and came up with this in order to make his roleclaim look good, but that is probably tinfoil territory.I'm not disclosing anything about my actions at this time.
Hold up.
We have 4 dead town roles, one dead third party, one living claimed third party, and 2 living claimed town roles. Including the speculation on Choxorn, that would make 8 or 9 roles in a 22-player game. This is the absolute limit I am willing to countenance: 8 roles.
I don't like it, GH. Besides the superficial unease generated by your character, a jailer - roleblock/protect - is an exceedingly difficult role to demonstrate, and in a game in which the course of night actions is not written up...
I'm not voting you now only because making that claim as you did would be a terrible unsolicited move from scum.
___
Riedquat, so if I have that role PM correct, you can only protect once in the game? So by now all you have left is Kleptomania? Please use it on GH tonight. GH, keep Pizza.
We have 4 dead town roles, one dead third party, one living claimed third party, and 2 living claimed town roles. Including the speculation on Choxorn, that would make 8 or 9 roles in a 22-player game. This is the absolute limit I am willing to countenance: 8 roles.
I don't like it, GH. Besides the superficial unease generated by your character, a jailer - roleblock/protect - is an exceedingly difficult role to demonstrate, and in a game in which the course of night actions is not written up...
I'm not voting you now only because making that claim as you did would be a terrible unsolicited move from scum.
___
Riedquat, so if I have that role PM correct, you can only protect once in the game? So by now all you have left is Kleptomania? Please use it on GH tonight. GH, keep Pizza.
Yes, I have to rebuild the case on Pizza. That vote isn't flying for the moment.
Unvote: Pizza
Unvote: Pizza
Just a hard unvote, no secondary suspect?
I could have just voted Winston, but I'm going to look at everything again synthetically. I think much of this will ride on who your partners are might be.
I dunno why you're even bothering to remove your vote from me. This tunnel has no turns.
Originally Posted by Askthepizzaguy:
6 spaceman98 (Visor, Cuthillius, Montmorency, GeneralHankerchief, CrimsonFox, El Barto)
4 BSmith (spaceman98, Dp101, seireikhaan, Al Sipsclar)
4 CrimsonFox (BSmith, Pelican, atheotes, Choxorn)
4 El Barto (Riedquat, Newyn, Winston Hughes, Stork)
2 Cuthillius (Askthepizzaguy, Murska)
1 GeneralHankerchief (novice)
1 Winston Hughes (johnhughthom)
1 Not Voting: El Barto
End of Day one
--------------------------------------
6 BSmith (novice, Stork, Generalhankerchief, Cuthillius, Dp101, Askthepizzaguy)
3 novice (Visor, atheotes, BSmith)
2 Riedquat (Montmorency, Winston Hughes)
1 Choxorn (Al Sipsclar)
1 CrimsonFox (khaan)
1 Montmorency (Pelican)
1 seireikhaan (CrimsonFox)
1 Visor (Murska)
1 Winston Hughes (johnhughthom)
3 Not Voting: Choxorn, Newyn, Riedquat
End of Day Two.
----------------------------------------------
9 Stork (novice, cuthillius, dp101, Winston, johnhughthom, Askthepizzaguy, choxorn, Newyn, al sipsclar)
5 Askthepizzaguy (montmorency, pelican, riedquat, murska, Stork)
2 novice (atheotes, generalhankerchief)
End of Day Three.
I said I'd get back to it, so:6 spaceman98 (Visor, Cuthillius, Montmorency, GeneralHankerchief, CrimsonFox, El Barto)
4 BSmith (spaceman98, Dp101, seireikhaan, Al Sipsclar)
4 CrimsonFox (BSmith, Pelican, atheotes, Choxorn)
4 El Barto (Riedquat, Newyn, Winston Hughes, Stork)
2 Cuthillius (Askthepizzaguy, Murska)
1 GeneralHankerchief (novice)
1 Winston Hughes (johnhughthom)
1 Not Voting: El Barto
End of Day one
--------------------------------------
6 BSmith (novice, Stork, Generalhankerchief, Cuthillius, Dp101, Askthepizzaguy)
3 novice (Visor, atheotes, BSmith)
2 Riedquat (Montmorency, Winston Hughes)
1 Choxorn (Al Sipsclar)
1 CrimsonFox (khaan)
1 Montmorency (Pelican)
1 seireikhaan (CrimsonFox)
1 Visor (Murska)
1 Winston Hughes (johnhughthom)
3 Not Voting: Choxorn, Newyn, Riedquat
End of Day Two.
----------------------------------------------
9 Stork (novice, cuthillius, dp101, Winston, johnhughthom, Askthepizzaguy, choxorn, Newyn, al sipsclar)
5 Askthepizzaguy (montmorency, pelican, riedquat, murska, Stork)
2 novice (atheotes, generalhankerchief)
End of Day Three.
Originally Posted by Dp101:
Day 2 initially looks like you can't get much out of it because there was only 1 major candidate, but IIRC Novice was a very close second place for much of the day leading up to deadline, but there were some last second switches that turned the vote as lopsided as it appears.
This is true, of course. From my perspective I know it was between two villagers and Riedquat, so the mafia probably didn't really care all that much who swung. In these town on town CFD situations I think the late switchers are more likely to be townies than scummies, since the switching tends to attract scrutiny.Day 2 initially looks like you can't get much out of it because there was only 1 major candidate, but IIRC Novice was a very close second place for much of the day leading up to deadline, but there were some last second switches that turned the vote as lopsided as it appears.
Well, dammit. I went back and looked at Winston's posts, and I realised that I really can't figure out why I thought he was mafia. I mean, his votes seem scummy because of the way he has avoided getting in on the big wagons unless it is someone important like Stork going down, but given that all we have lynched is town so far that accusation could be placed upon anyone. My mafia reads of him must have come before I realised that I must have been working with a bunch of mafia and changed my reads around a bit, and I must have just unconsciously kept up that same suspicion. Since I really can't come up with a better case than tone, and tone reads really aren't that critical at this stage, I think I need to go find another target. Sorry for wasting your time with accusations.
Originally Posted by Zack:
Alive: 14
Al Sipsclar
Askthepizzaguy
atheotes
Choxorn
Cuthillius
Dp101
GeneralHankerchief
johnhughthom
Montmorency
Murska
novice
Pelican
Riedquat
Winston Hughes
---
Lynched: 3
d1 - spaceman98 - Leela
d2 - BSmith - Amy (can talk)
d3 - Stork - Professor Farnsworth
---
Killed: 5
n1 - El Barto - Flexo (can talk)
n2 - Visor - Hermes
n2 - seireikhaan - Larry
d3 - CrimsonFox - Zapp Brannigan
n3 - Newyn - Linda
Let's start with basics - a headcount: Alive: 14
Al Sipsclar
Askthepizzaguy
atheotes
Choxorn
Cuthillius
Dp101
GeneralHankerchief
johnhughthom
Montmorency
Murska
novice
Pelican
Riedquat
Winston Hughes
---
Lynched: 3
d1 - spaceman98 - Leela
d2 - BSmith - Amy (can talk)
d3 - Stork - Professor Farnsworth
---
Killed: 5
n1 - El Barto - Flexo (can talk)
n2 - Visor - Hermes
n2 - seireikhaan - Larry
d3 - CrimsonFox - Zapp Brannigan
n3 - Newyn - Linda
Good
Riedquat
Montmorency
Prepared for Disappointment
GeneralH
DP101
Novice
Bad
ATPG
Winston
Cuthilius
Pelican
Murska
JHT
Al Sipsclar
Choxorn
Atheotes
Next, scum-team fundamentals: are there 2 or 3 left?
3 total Mafia has been the dominant assumption so far, and it's only gotten more so as the game has gone on. However, with so many roles floating around, I think a 4th (for practical purposes, 3rd) scum becomes much likelier in the setup. If we take that, then perhaps the earlier wagons make more sense - scum has had the manpower to follow a strategy of avoiding concentrations.
Next posts will be vote analysis plus team arrangements. I will speculate on what it would look like for one of the 'unknown' category to be scum.
Originally Posted by Montmorency:
Riedquat, so if I have that role PM correct, you can only protect once in the game? So by now all you have left is Kleptomania? Please use it on GH tonight. GH, keep Pizza.
I don't know if it will activate again when I scan another robot or person of interest to me, but for the time being yes kleptomania is always usable and I guess if my target can kill the result will be like CrimsonFox, a threat to my survival.Riedquat, so if I have that role PM correct, you can only protect once in the game? So by now all you have left is Kleptomania? Please use it on GH tonight. GH, keep Pizza.
ugh
i don't like either of those claims
but who else
beh
i don't like either of those claims
but who else
beh
i mean given that one of the more active people is probably scum, we're left with... winston? novice?
i think winston's been towny
novice has been really average the last phase or two
i think winston's been towny
novice has been really average the last phase or two
Originally Posted by Murska:
As Town I'd expect the following thought process: "I think Stork is being pushed by mafia here. The counterwagon is ATPG, pushed by Towny folk." At this point there's a split - if you have time, you'll go "I'll analyze the Stork wagon to maybe find mafia there, put up a case to try and push them instead." If you're busy you'll go "I'll follow the people I think are Town on ATPG, though voice my concerns about the lack of other targets."
Agree with this criticism of GH.As Town I'd expect the following thought process: "I think Stork is being pushed by mafia here. The counterwagon is ATPG, pushed by Towny folk." At this point there's a split - if you have time, you'll go "I'll analyze the Stork wagon to maybe find mafia there, put up a case to try and push them instead." If you're busy you'll go "I'll follow the people I think are Town on ATPG, though voice my concerns about the lack of other targets."
Originally Posted by GeneralHankerchief:
I have Riedquat as lock town (there's no way mafia!Riedquat ever, ever makes those series of posts against CrimsonFox)
I have Riedquat as lock town (there's no way mafia!Riedquat ever, ever makes those series of posts against CrimsonFox)
Originally Posted by GeneralHankerchief:
Riedquat: No way he's not town.
Riedquat: No way he's not town.
Originally Posted by Montmorency:
Specifically, he claims Neutral Survivor.
Yeah, he's not town, he's neutral at best.Specifically, he claims Neutral Survivor.
Originally Posted by Pelican:
I still think the case on Pizza is incredibly strong, so I'll go ahead and vote:Pizza again today. For the time being, this is where my focus is, and it will likely remain here until Pizza is lynched or the case is satisfactorily refuted. As it is, I don't think my primary arguments (Pizza's haphazard voting for every leading wagon on the day of BSmith's lynch and his halfhearted Choxorn vote + token analysis + misplaced piling on against Stork yesterday) have been refuted.
You think scum is prone to haphazardly vote for every leading wagon?I still think the case on Pizza is incredibly strong, so I'll go ahead and vote:Pizza again today. For the time being, this is where my focus is, and it will likely remain here until Pizza is lynched or the case is satisfactorily refuted. As it is, I don't think my primary arguments (Pizza's haphazard voting for every leading wagon on the day of BSmith's lynch and his halfhearted Choxorn vote + token analysis + misplaced piling on against Stork yesterday) have been refuted.
Originally Posted by Cuthillius:
novice has been really average the last phase or two
Is that an improvement or a turn for the worse?novice has been really average the last phase or two
Originally Posted by :
You think scum is prone to haphazardly vote for every leading wagon?
Wasn't haphazard. For your wagon specifically, I had it pegged that the BSmith CFD was a maneuver designed to both credibly threaten you and then 'rescue' you. This would create a beneficial Stockholm effect causing you to gain a favorable perspective on Pizza's actions.You think scum is prone to haphazardly vote for every leading wagon?
Originally Posted by Montmorency:
Wasn't haphazard. For your wagon specifically, I had it pegged that the BSmith CFD was a maneuver designed to both credibly threaten you and then 'rescue' you. This would create a beneficial Stockholm effect causing you to gain a favorable perspective on Pizza's actions.
Haphazard was Pelican's choice of words, of course. Anyway, that is an interesting theory. Moreover, it's an interesting kind of theory. :)Wasn't haphazard. For your wagon specifically, I had it pegged that the BSmith CFD was a maneuver designed to both credibly threaten you and then 'rescue' you. This would create a beneficial Stockholm effect causing you to gain a favorable perspective on Pizza's actions.
ATPG
Winston
Cuthilius
Pelican
Murska
If you say the above people are bad, you might want to try pushing on them.
Oh, wait.
Winston
Cuthilius
Pelican
Murska
If you say the above people are bad, you might want to try pushing on them.
Oh, wait.
Originally Posted by :
Oh, wait.
Correct. That's what I've been doing. Now let me finish my study.Oh, wait.
Originally Posted by Askthepizzaguy:
ATPG
Winston
Cuthilius
Pelican
Murska
If you say the above people are bad, you might want to try pushing on them.
Oh, wait.
what are you trying to say with this postATPG
Winston
Cuthilius
Pelican
Murska
If you say the above people are bad, you might want to try pushing on them.
Oh, wait.
meh
vote:novice
right now i don't feel like you want to win
you rarely discuss important parts of the game and tend towards nitpicking and calling people out on insignificant things
i think you might easily be mafia
i sheeped Pizza onto bsmith and kinda regret it more and more
vote:novice
right now i don't feel like you want to win
you rarely discuss important parts of the game and tend towards nitpicking and calling people out on insignificant things
i think you might easily be mafia
i sheeped Pizza onto bsmith and kinda regret it more and more
Originally Posted by Cuthillius:
what are you trying to say with this post
He is probably annoyed at me withdrawing my accusations of Winston after I realised that I didn't have a case.what are you trying to say with this post
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