Catalonia

[Husar]

And if they don't it wouldn't?

I was trying to secede from this thread because looking for your statistics prevents me from getting actually important work done.
Can't you just let me go? All I want is some self-determination regarding my being part of this thread...

[Gilrandir]

I was trying to secede from this thread because looking for your statistics prevents me from getting actually important work done.
Can't you just let me go? All I want is some self-determination regarding my being part of this thread...

I like it when YOU have to prove your point with MY statistics.

[Husar]

I like it when YOU have to prove your point with MY statistics.

That was for the generic point, which was rather superfluous in hindsight, given that S&P wants to downgrade Catalonia specifically in case of independence anyway. https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...post2053761440

Not to forget that the business insider article two posts before that predicts very bad economic times for the entire region if they get independence without EU membership. So it was kind of a superfluous distraction trying to make a generic point about how well independence works economically.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

If a people desire freedom you have two options:

1. Give it to them.

2. Violently suppress the separatists.

Spain has opted for option 2 prematurely, the referendum turnout was low, below 50%, and it's by no means clear that a majority of people in Catalonia want Independence. The low turnout gave Spain some wiggle room, but by sending in paramilitaries to drag people out of polling stations they lost that wiggle room.

An Independent Catalan Republic is now almost inevitable within five years.

That's extremely awkward for the EU in the middle of Brexit because the number and size of the EU states might not be the same in twelve months and if Spain can't hold onto Catalonia it can't claim Gibraltar.

[Husar]

If a people desire freedom

That's not even very clear. From previous polls, the people of Catalonia are very divided on that and you have to consider that the vast majority of the Stay-camp had no reason to attend a referendum that was illegal anyway in their eyes.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catala...Public_opinion
http://www.politico.eu/article/catal...or-drops-poll/

Apparently there is also the option to make Spain a federal state. The full independence only seems to be favoured by 34.7% of Catalans according to their own public research.

Another question that came to mind is why do many countries want a 2/3rd majority or thereabouts for constitutional changes, but the enormous changes brought about by joining or leaving a union of any kind only require a 51% majority? IMO even joining or leaving the EU should be at least as big a deal as changing the constitution of a country. Perhaps "my beloved" EU would be smaller and/or less developed today if that were the case, but also perhaps more stable and united.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

That's not even very clear.

I agree, which you would know if you'd read more than the first two sentences of my post.

Apparently there is also the option to make Spain a federal state. The full independence only seems to be favoured by 34.7% of Catalans according to their own public research.

Spain is already quasi-Federal - the problem here is that, by and large, only those wanting independence seem politically active on this issue. (90% in favour on a, what, 43% turnout? About 35% isn't it?

Another question that came to mind is why do many countries want a 2/3rd majority or thereabouts for constitutional changes, but the enormous changes brought about by joining or leaving a union of any kind only require a 51% majority? IMO even joining or leaving the EU should be at least as big a deal as changing the constitution of a country. Perhaps "my beloved" EU would be smaller and/or less developed today if that were the case, but also perhaps more stable and united.

Excellent question - with joining the EU I'm sure the answer is that very few countries would actually join.

This crisis is extremely serious for the Spanish Government, if they cannot hold onto Catalonia then the Basques will agitate for Independence, and if they don't get a referendum ETA may start back up. Valencia might go after that and from there things could snowball until "Spain" is just Castille-Leon.

[Husar]

I agree, which you would know if you'd read more than the first two sentences of my post.

That is actually true and I have no explanation other than something must have distracted me.
Can't hurt to have some poll numbers though.

Spain is already quasi-Federal - the problem here is that, by and large, only those wanting independence seem politically active on this issue. (90% in favour on a, what, 43% turnout? About 35% isn't it?

38.7%
The difference between federal state and autonomous regions also seems a bit unclear to me. I'm assuming with the autonomous regions they all have slightly different rights whereas in a federal state, the rights of the smaller states would be outlined somewhere and be more standardized.

Excellent question - with joining the EU I'm sure the answer is that very few countries would actually join.

This crisis is extremely serious for the Spanish Government, if they cannot hold onto Catalonia then the Basques will agitate for Independence, and if they don't get a referendum ETA may start back up. Valencia might go after that and from there things could snowball until "Spain" is just Castille-Leon.

Isn't that a very sad thing to happen almost anywhere in Europe? I could swear someone said it's the nation state that brought peace to Europe, so are we looking at a return of war to Europe?