Catalonia

**Husar** · 10-10-2017, 18:54

Looks like Puigdemont didn't dare declar independence yet. After 20 minutes of teasing and a seeming intensification towards a declaration, he said he will delay any declaration because there wasn't enough dialogue yet in Catalonia and Spain and because the international community requested more dialogue.

So I guess they're not ready to go full frontal against Spain and don't quite see the international support that they would need to succeed.
Is that a first step towards a withdrawal without losing face? Actual request for more dialogue or really just a delay of an inevitable declatration of independence?

IMO the latter seems rather unlikely, it looks more as though they just didn't get anyone to back them but less than half the local population, so they can easily foresee a desaster if they unilaterally try anything. An internationally observed dialogue with Madrid however, may give them a chance to get more independence as they may have more sympathies for that now given that the world saw Spanish policemen beat Catalans. Of course they had to find some reason to not declare independence as per their own law/promise...

A successful negotiation about the region's rights would seem to be the best outcome to me and outside of whining about taxes (which was also in the speech) I think it's only fair for Spain to respect their local traditions etc.

**Sarmatian** · 10-11-2017, 16:15

Spanish government demands Catalonia leader clarify independence declaration

I think I'd explain it to Rajoy this way - if you wake up after spending the night with a girl for the first time, and you have to ask her are you a still virgin, you probably are.

In this case, it's the other way around - if you have to ask whether they declared independence, they probably didn't.

On a serious note, nice move by Rajoy. Catalan government can say "yes", Spain invokes article 155 of the constitution, Catalan government gets disbanded and leaders arrested. If they say "no", the matter is settled and Catalan leaders kiss their political careers goodbye. Their best bet at this moment is to stay silent and ask for a dialogue, hoping that Madrid will give them a face-saving way out of this mess.

I'm not sure Madrid will be that accommodating.

**Gilrandir** · 10-13-2017, 10:49

A possible solution?

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/artic...onia-s-problem

**Seamus Fermanagh** · 10-13-2017, 18:33

Originally Posted by Gilrandir

A possible solution?

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/artic...onia-s-problem

I suspect that something along those lines is exactly what Spain/Catalonia will end up with. But it will have to be done "second track" as the official players are now trapped by their own public stances.

**Gilrandir** · 10-21-2017, 15:34

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-s...-idUSKBN1CP0SB

Wouldn't it sway those Catalonians who are still in doubt to swell the independence camp?

**Husar** · 10-21-2017, 16:18

Originally Posted by Gilrandir

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-s...-idUSKBN1CP0SB

Wouldn't it sway those Catalonians who are still in doubt to swell the independence camp?

Somewhere I read that the secessionists only gained more seats in the Catalan government because the weird electoral system gave them more seats despite not getting a corresponding popular vote. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catala...election,_2015

When I take the 135 seats and multiply it with 0.396 for the 39.6% they (JxSi) got of the popular vote, I get 53.46 seats, and yet they somehow have 62 seats. It might be explained due to parties falling below the minimum threshold, but then again that should lead to all parties having more seats than their share of the vote, yet the CUP should have 135 x 0.082 = 11.07 seats and has effectively only 10.

I'm not aware of their policies and coalitions, but it would seem quite weird for a party that is strongly overrepresented in parliament to take a very flawed referendum and make a very important choice based on that, claiming to represent the will of the people. As I said before, a secession would seem even vastly more important than a constitutional change, and should not be declared lightly. A lot of countries make constitutional changes very hard, why not decisions that potentially affect the country even more?

**Gilrandir** · 10-21-2017, 20:17

Originally Posted by Husar

When I take the 135 seats and multiply it with 0.396 for the 39.6% they (JxSi) got of the popular vote, I get 53.46 seats, and yet they somehow have 62 seats. It might be explained due to parties falling below the minimum threshold, but then again that should lead to all parties having more seats than their share of the vote, yet the CUP should have 135 x 0.082 = 11.07 seats and has effectively only 10.

It can be explained by the mixed electoral system. Some candidates are party members but they are elected as individuals in the majority constituencies. At least it is so in Ukraine.

**Montmorency** · 10-22-2017, 03:07

Spanish government plans to remove Catalonian government, schedule new elections, and in the meantime implement direct rule by Madrid.

Hundreds of thousands march for - well, if not for independence, then at least against Madrid's proposed corrective measures.