Brexit NHS Funding Promise broken

[Pannonian]

So, when the negotiations begin regarding the exit process and its aftermath -- which negotiations will be harsh to the point of combative* on the part of the EU team -- will the UK cave, rescind the vote and/or replace it, and go back to being what the EU wants?

*maybe not to the point of arguing about the shape of the table a la Paris in the 1970s, but I would expect it to be rough and unpleasant as a means of convincing any other shirkers that it is not worth it.

The conditions are already known. For access to the common market, the UK must accept the four freedoms as a package (as a minimum, plus membership fees). Freedom of movement was the main reason for the Leave vote (hence the recent rise in xenophobic, racist and homophobic attacks, with the far right encouraged by the vote), which the Tories have said they won't be compromising on. So the four freedoms won't be accepted by the UK government, which means the UK will lose access to the common market. Which is a bugger for exporters, as 50% of our exports went to the EU. It will mean stuff from the EU will increase in price, thus driving up prices, while wages will have to go down in order for exporters to absorb tariffs whilst remaining competitive. Tax revenue will also go down (quite drastically) as financial services leave the UK for places with access to the common market.

All of that was known before the vote. And Frag will hand wave all of that away with "You'll be fine" and "It's worth it".

[Seamus Fermanagh]

The conditions are already known. For access to the common market, the UK must accept the four freedoms as a package (as a minimum, plus membership fees). Freedom of movement was the main reason for the Leave vote (hence the recent rise in xenophobic, racist and homophobic attacks, with the far right encouraged by the vote), which the Tories have said they won't be compromising on. So the four freedoms won't be accepted by the UK government, which means the UK will lose access to the common market. Which is a bugger for exporters, as 50% of our exports went to the EU. It will mean stuff from the EU will increase in price, thus driving up prices, while wages will have to go down in order for exporters to absorb tariffs whilst remaining competitive. Tax revenue will also go down (quite drastically) as financial services leave the UK for places with access to the common market.

All of that was known before the vote. And Frag will hand wave all of that away with "You'll be fine" and "It's worth it".

I blame April Glaspie

[Fragony]

The conditions are already known. For access to the common market, the UK must accept the four freedoms as a package (as a minimum, plus membership fees). Freedom of movement was the main reason for the Leave vote (hence the recent rise in xenophobic, racist and homophobic attacks, with the far right encouraged by the vote), which the Tories have said they won't be compromising on. So the four freedoms won't be accepted by the UK government, which means the UK will lose access to the common market. Which is a bugger for exporters, as 50% of our exports went to the EU. It will mean stuff from the EU will increase in price, thus driving up prices, while wages will have to go down in order for exporters to absorb tariffs whilst remaining competitive. Tax revenue will also go down (quite drastically) as financial services leave the UK for places with access to the common market.

All of that was known before the vote. And Frag will hand wave all of that away with "You'll be fine" and "It's worth it".

Your exports will be cheaper and you think that is a bad thing? Nobody is going to kick you out of that 50% of exports, that's hysterical scaremoning, that common market will still be there. The UK will only be releaved from a very costly overhead and the EU knows it. Eurocrats tend to forget that Europe is a continent and the EU a political construction. These exports do not go to Brussels. They go to Europe. And yes some things will be more expensive.

[Pannonian]

Your exports will be cheaper and you think that is a bad thing? Nobody is going to kick you out of that 50% of exports, that's hysterical scaremoning, that common market will still be there. The UK will only be releaved from a very costly overhead and the EU knows it. Eurocrats tend to forget that Europe is a continent and the EU a political construction. These exports do not go to Brussels. They go to Europe. And yes some things will be more expensive.

You wot? Is this a spectacular case of strawman building, or do you not understand what you read?

[Fragony]

You wot? Is this a spectacular case of strawman building, or do you not understand what you read?

It will cost less to export from the UK what's so hard about it. That's how Southern-European countries used to keep afloat, devaluating their coin to make importing from them more attractive.

I am certainly not the only who is optimistic about the future of your country, maybe overly so

[Pannonian]

It will cost less to export from the UK what's so hard about it. That's how Southern-European countries used to keep afloat, devaluating their coin to make importing from them more attractive.

Err, the UK is a net importer. Yet another argument from you that takes no notice of the reality of the people on the ground.

[Fragony]

Err, the UK is a net importer. Yet another argument from you that takes no notice of the reality of the people on the ground.

And they suddenly won't want to trade with you anymore? Terminating existing contracts is a costly afair, it's best for everyone that they stay intact, and a bad thing to have to reorganise a perfectly well organised system. I never said it wouldn't get worse for some people, it also got worse for coal-shoverers when trains got invented and Thatcher broke the back of worker-unions who wanted job-guarenties for coal shovellers. Cheap example and probably not even true I know but you probably get the idea. You are in new territory make the most out of it. I know it won't work out for everyone but there is no need to make it come across as if I have any pleassure in that, not that you say that directly but the contempt is received

As for OT, we have privitised healthcare and it's a bad idea, you got a perfect case-study here in the Netherlands on that. It got better for some, but unaffordable for others, especially people who need help for addictions and mental diseases are screwed.

[Gilrandir]

Terminating existing contracts is a costly afair, it's best for everyone that they stay intact, and a bad thing to have to reorganise a perfectly well organised system.

But one day the conracts will expire and they won't prolong them. It might chronologically coincide with the moment when Brexit is fait accompli.

[Pannonian]

All of that was known before the vote. And Frag will hand wave all of that away with "You'll be fine" and "It's worth it".

And they suddenly won't want to trade with you anymore? Terminating existing contracts is a costly afair, it's best for everyone that they stay intact, and a bad thing to have to reorganise a perfectly well organised system. I never said it wouldn't get worse for some people, it also got worse for coal-shoverers when trains got invented and Thatcher broke the back of worker-unions who wanted job-guarenties for coal shovellers. Cheap example and probably not even true I know but you probably get the idea. You are in new territory make the most out of it. I know it won't work out for everyone but there is no need to make it come across as if I have any pleassure in that, not that you say that directly but the contempt is received

As for OT, we have privitised healthcare and it's a bad idea, you got a perfect case-study here in the Netherlands on that. It got better for some, but unaffordable for others, especially people who need help for addictions and mental diseases are screwed.

On the highlighted bit: your contempt for "coal shoverers (sic)" who were superseded by the invention of trains is noted. Anyone with knowledge of the history of trains knows that coal and railways went hand in hand.

[Montmorency]

Europe is a continent

Europe as continent is a political construction.