
Originally Posted by
Pannonian
The conditions are already known. For access to the common market, the UK must accept the four freedoms as a package (as a minimum, plus membership fees). Freedom of movement was the main reason for the Leave vote (hence the recent rise in xenophobic, racist and homophobic attacks, with the far right encouraged by the vote), which the Tories have said they won't be compromising on. So the four freedoms won't be accepted by the UK government, which means the UK will lose access to the common market. Which is a bugger for exporters, as 50% of our exports went to the EU. It will mean stuff from the EU will increase in price, thus driving up prices, while wages will have to go down in order for exporters to absorb tariffs whilst remaining competitive. Tax revenue will also go down (quite drastically) as financial services leave the UK for places with access to the common market.
All of that was known before the vote. And Frag will hand wave all of that away with "You'll be fine" and "It's worth it".
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